I developed the children population clock, which indicates the current and future number of children on a web page. I found that the way of using economic indicators is more useful than the way using past trend of the TFR for estimating future population.

This research investigated the appropriate design for sustainable fiscal model in local government, taking account of demographic, social and economic change. In exploring the model, we surveyed previous studies and visited Western nations alongside of interviewing and discussions with related scholars and practitioners. Our approach is quite interdisciplinary to analyze and construct the issues and prescriptions by using knowledge of economics, public finance, management, accounting, policy sciences and political science. Especially it is noteworthy to expand the scope of analysis into residential livings and welfare in local government, for example, social capital and citizens' activities for social life.

From the historical point of view, we have clarified the details on how reckoning cost tables, such as an ordinary research expenses for a research unit (KOZA-KENKYUHI) in imperial universities and an ordinary unit cost (SEKISAN-KOHI) per student/teacher in the post WW II era, had worked in annual budget formulation procedure. For grasping the latest situation of national university corporations, we have conducted a questionnaire survey for all the national universities, and had their responses on abundance/scarcity and increase/decrease of their resources after their incorporation, and how those affected the design of their resource allocation systems. In addition to that, we have attempted to calculate unit cost per student in a sample university and considered how it would be useful for their better management. From the international comparative study, we have collected and examined the details on resource allocation systems in the United States, the United Kingdom and New Zealand in order to get some implications for Japan.

This study discusses the issues on the generational imbalance under the aged society using the method of the generational accounts. The following points are found; 1. The generational accounts clarify that we can not solve the generational imbalance only reducing the fiscal expenditure on the public capital formation. 2. The OLG model clarified that we can maintain the welfare of future generation by increasing tax burden under the society with the public capital less than the optimal level. 3. The generational accounts clarify that the public pension financed by tax improve the generational imbalance a litlle, and that the new health insurance for high-aged, however, does not improve the generational imbalance. 4. The index of social welfare expenditures between the younger and aged generation illustrates that Japan expend much more benefit on the aged generation than Sweden and Finland. This result comes from the policy that supports for the household with small children in the Nordic countries.

The forms of public service delivery have increased variations since the 1980s: new styles or mechanisms such as PFI, Agencies, Assigned management for specific facilities are adopted in addition to traditional contracting out methods. This research aimed to investigate the backgrounds of diversification of public service delivery, the impacts on public finance and management in the public sector, whether or not this change might cause the new issues on accountability and democratic control for public services. Therefore, first, we reviewed the theoretical and empirical studies on public services by selecting appropriate academic articles and government documents and reports. As a result, it was shown that the diversification was basically derived from the concept of new public management (NPM). At the same time, as some scholars indicate, the multiple service delivering systems transform the providing entity (provider) from an internal organization within the government into parties composed of multi actors depending on each other. In other words, the change from government to governance requires a new management and control system to ensure public accountability and to rationalize the transaction costs other than monitoring system maintaining the quality of public services for network governance. If we correspond these issues to academics, the following themes are identified; governance in political science, agency problems in economics, network theory in management, coproduction in public administration. These issues were recognized in the survey on public service delivery for mayors and other senior executives in local government which was implemented in 2005. Most of the respondents indicated that in order to get the full benefit by diversification it is possible to not only monitor the outcomes and quality of services but there need to exist several alternative providers for public services in the district. However, it is difficult not only to establish an appropriate monitoring system owing to limitation to measure outcomes of public services in case of unobservable outcomes but to find a substitute provider for the current public organization in rural areas. Consequently, it is necessary to set up the infrastructure on enhancing efficiency and quality, like a competitive situation in case of marketization and trusty relationships in case of coproduction. Also in case of conflict between traditional and innovative systems, it has to be replaced by new system fitting for new governance.

The purpose of this research is to verify the effect of Japanese defined contribution pension plan introduction from the viewpoint of the household sector, the business enterprise sector, and macroeconomics. 1. The first research explores the implications of possible bankruptcies of firms for their own wage schemes and the structure of labor market, using a two-period general equilibrium model. As a result, a substantial utility differential emerges between those who have luckily found a job of the primary market and those who have not, although there is no difference in their innate abilities. 2. We have obtained the list of 93 enterprise companies in which the article on 401k pension introduction in the new paper. The stock prices data before and after the newspaper publishing was acquired, and the news of 401k pension introduction how stock prices, corporate value, changed the event was studied. As a result, we could not confirm the effect of introducing the DC plan on raising stock prices. 3. The effect of the DC pension system in Japan on the households, savings was tested by using the data of "Family Budget Survey" from 2002 to 2006. As a result, the possibility of increasing the amount of the pension property was shown in the group of high-income working households. In addition, the possibility that the revision of the contribution limit invades aggregate savings is shown among high-income households. In each case, the effect that the DC pension system increased the pension type savings and aggregate savings of low-income households was not able to be confirmed.

The object of this research is : 1.To make study about the methodology of the estimation of generational accounting ; 2.And make empirical studies on the fiscal policy to balance the generational equity. As for the theme 1, this study makes a simulational calculation with dynamic general equilibrium OLG model. With the result, a comparative evaluation is made between standard generational accounting method, generational accounts using the endogenous growth rate and discount rate obtained from dynamic OLG model, and generational imbalance based on the utility of each generation with dynamic OLG model. (1)The standard method of generational accounting gives a little larger estimation on the future generation than the estimation result with dynamic model. However, the difference is less than 10% in this simulation. (2)Compared with the generational imbalance based on utilities, the standard generational accounting method performs similar result in the case of increasing burden. But in the case of reducing benefit, the standard method estimates the burden of future generation larger. Anyway, the standard method of generational accounting gives good performance about the basic imbalance of each generation and the directions of fiscal reforms. As for the theme 2, this study makes following three researches. (1)Linking the improvement of mortgage with public pension, the possibility for plus sum policy with optimal asset forming is considered. (2)The empirical study on the effect of the character of local governors on the performance of fiscal and regional status is made. (3)The comparative study about the result and usage of generational accounts between Norway and Japan is made.

1.We examined a management outcomes of the small size multi functional model in Monou town, Miyagi to verify the effects and efficiencies of the small size care multi functional care service system. Analyzing outcomes it was clarified not only residents wanted this system but reduces initial investment costs, operational costs of care service facility. and break even point. 2.The small size multi functional facilities and hospitals for mild dementia patients were investigated to collect information for designing and operating of community primary care units and university hospital primary care units. 3/We analyzed visiting traffic time and outcomes of management using the database that we constructed for visiting care service utilization including providers and users. The geographical service linutation was estimated as visiting traffic times were within one third of total input. 4.We defined and systematized concepts of the medical welfare function units. 5.Our case studies showed that the modularization which are similar concepts for functions units is introduced to new production systems in other industry. 6.We analyzed empirically relationship between care service and medical service at unit care system with regression model. And we confirmed that there are externalities between care service and medical service. 7.The effects and the problems on the medical care raw for the group medical system ware clarified by our visiting research. 8.We made investigations for present situations of the functional units for medical and welfare to clarify the effects and problems of relationships and integrations among units. As a result, it was proved that they have the merits and demerits on investigation and management. 9.It was found that there is a demand for residential function in our interview research targeting 40 years old and older. 10.We made database and analyzed present situations of family care giving. 11.We designed the units for preventing dementia in Tajiri town, Miyagi showing the effects of monitoring disease with CDR. 12.We visited at 16 health care function units centers and its function units in German, Denmark, Norway and Sweden to investigate the characteristics and its integrations. It was proved that integration of functional units, especially medical welfare units with residents units, improve quality of service and efficient recourse using.

1. A handy economic model in consideration of the plant investment for barrier-free improvements was built, and the most suitable barrier-free level is explained by the efficiency standard. 2. Travel time was measured separately with multiple case of the rate of the old man contained in the degree of the movement barrier by the method of the computer simulation. 3. A SD model was made to evaluate effect on an influence by barrier-free environment improvement on one the same field. It was divided into 5 sectors such as; 1) handicapped person or old man, 2) assistance person or care business person, 3) commercial establishment, 4) general citizen, and 5) administration, and simulation for the action confirmation was carried out. 4. The actual condition grasping investigation, a user experiment was enforced as the store of the shopping street and the shopping street in front of the actual station. The examination of the cost vs. effect that grasping of the repair condition related to Universal Design of the store and the shopping street in the cause is related to the proposal of the way of preparing it, the maintenance was done it. 5. It faced a use research on the actual condition in the station where the establishment of the going up and down device in the railroad station was completed, and questionnaire investigation was carried out. 6. The research of the application of the new transport system that it aimed at Universal Design was done. The new system is considered based on the present condition of the public transport in the rural area and the old men's character.

In this study, we took up the Swedish welfare system as an example of a Scandinavian leader in order to study the model of economic social system under the aged society. We analyzed the 1990's social welfare reform in Sweden comparing with Japan and examined decentralization in Swedish reorganization and rebirth of the welfare state. Also we paid an attention to a role of the not-for profit and cooperative sectors as providers of social services Secondly, we focused on the finance of welfare programs in the city, towns and villages of Miyagi. And we investigated with a questionnaire for a home helping person as consciousness of a caretaker in a nursing care insurance system and we studied on the reality about construction of a local model. As a result, the present conditions of a caretaker became clear from needs about "socialization of care", consciousness of a caretaker changing in the marketization of home helping care service changing respect of action studies Thirdly, we examined the formation of "civic professionalism" in NPO through the fieldwork of "Hanshin support network for the aged and handicapped people". In addition, we have investigated community businesses in Kobe which mainly provide personal social services. As a result, it became clear that community businesses in Kobe have rich social capital and social capital is important resources for community businesses To the fourth, recent characters of modern welfare states vary widely in spite of the common importance of welfare policy in constitutions or laws. In particular, there is a remarkable gap between a fiscal system made for welfare policy and a reality in Japan. Although a concept of neo-institutional economics "complementation" is useful, it does not seem to be able to explain the relative autonomy of a state from a society. This property of the state was already pointed out in the classic literature of fiscal sociology, which originated from German public finance theory. It is necessary to reassess this approach in the recent fiscal crisis in Japan Finally, we examined the situation of contribution, receipt, a difference of life time net receipt with social security to examine a problem of disproportion between generations in the aged society, based on data of income redistribution investigation and quoted the technique of generation accounts. As a result, we need 4,900 yen's additional burden on the future generations that is 1.5 times higher than current one to balance the budget of government for the next 100 years

Public sector reforms in the United States, United Kingdom, New Zealand, Australia and Japan were theoretically and empirically investigated in terms of governance and management. As a result, the main findings are as follows: 1. In general the reforms have firstly started to adopt market typed model seeking 'small government', then moved into adopting a business management model and lastly developed towards a mixed model taking into account of governance and network. 2. In other words, first, privatization, contracting out and internal market were introduced into the management system, second, enterprise model focusing on business methods and corporate governance was followed and at present collaborative management in which the related government activities with private sector including NPO are harmonized in order to accomplish the governmental goals. 3. In the first stage the content of the reform is organization structure and financial reporting accounting, therefore the key idea is cost. The second stage seeks to adopt the new public management (NPM) in which performance management towards technical efficiency is applied in the public sector. In the third stage, the focus is transformed into budgetary reform and improving the quality of policy that effectiveness and allocation efficiency are much considered. 4. Japan is now placed in the second stage. However, since financial management reform is lagged, cash based accounting is still used and program evaluation or performance measurement is not well linked to budgeting. NPM is limited to adopting the principle of result-oriented approach in ex post evaluation: the traditional public administration and NPM that are conflicted each other are mixed in the management system. The inconsistent and selective approach in Japan has resulted in much less fruitful outcomes from the public sector reform.

We studied following four main themes : (1) In order to examine increasing understanding level of residents about the Long-term Care Insurance System, we tried to use TV media for a week and researched the change of understanding level of residents between before and after TV broadcasting of the Insurance System. The results of analysis show us effects of TV media usage. (2) Quality assurance of care managers is one of the most important problems to be treated. In our study, methods how to raise up level of assurance of care-managers are examined though training sponsored by the Miyagi Prefecture for care-managers, and we found the several points which should be applied to training. (3) Demand side analysis and supply aide analysis of the Long-tem Care-Insurance System are studied using the data of seven towns or cities in Miyagi Prefecture. We found several results such that there is a negative relation between handicapped level and exhausted rate of permitted money by the Insurance System. (4) Regarding to monitoring system in the Long-Term Care Insurance System, We developed a monitoring sheet which can be used for evaluation activities and management of the insurance system.

1. There are mainly three reasons for declining fertility in recent Japan : (1) increases in opportunity costs for child-raising, (2) the established sex roles of men and women, and (3) increasing economic rationale for having no-kids from individualistic point of view. 2. A society of declining fertility will suffer from an excess-supply economy, which may make a sharp contrast with a society of aging populations under an excess-demand economy. 3. Declining fertility used to be a problem of quantity. It turns out, however, to be a problem of quality, as well. Declining children in number will cause less competition among them, leading to lower quality of children. 4. Some people advocate to increase labor force participation of females along with later retirement against a declining population in Japan. It will turn out, however, that such a policy would not cancel out declining populations fully in the 21st century. Continuous and massive imports of foreign guest workers will be required, then. 5. It is necessary to change customary working practice of Japanese males for the declining fertility to return to a higher level. It is usually quite abnormal in that working males have little time to spare for home responsibilities. The practice has been intensifying the established sex roles of men and women, forcing them unable to reconcile market work and home work. 6. It is necessary to have different work incentives for Japanese males to change their working practice. Salaries have to be based not on the length of working hours but on the working output. Promotions have to be based not on senioritis but on the competence. Overtime pay should be increased considerably.

本年度における研究実績の概要は次のとおりである。 1.公的年金を民営化すると、年金におけるリスクの中身が変わる。民営化前におけるリスクは人口変動にともなう財政の脆弱性および給付調整・積立金管理上の政治リスクである。一方、民営化後のリスクは積立金運用リスクであり、給付は不安定となる。 2.年金を完全民営化することは、従来の年金制度に固有のリスクを回避することにつながるものの、反面において新たなリスクをかかえこむことになる。新たなリスクへの周到な対応策を講じないかぎり問題解決にはならない。 3.部分民営化は従来の年金制度に固有のリスクを部分的に減らす一方、給付の安定性は程度の差こそあれ確保されることになる。それは民営化のマイナス面を補う形となりうる。日本の将来を念頭におくと、年金の部分民営化が望ましい。 4.部分民営化案もいくつか構想しうる。まず報酬比例年金の民営化には制度移行に「二重の負担」がともなう(未積立債務は約380兆円と推計されている)。制度移行時における中年世代の年金負担は実質的に増大する。この負担増を中年世代が平時に引きうけることは政治的にまず不可能である。報酬比例年金の民営化は政治の厚い壁によって拒否されるおそれが強い。 5.本研究では報酬比例年金の一部をスリム化し、基礎年金を税方式化して厚生年金の保険料を直ちに4%引き下げる一方、月収の4%を民間の掛金建て年金(2000年度創設と想定)で運用して老後に備える場合のシミュレーションを試みた。その結果によると、公私をあわせた年金給付は現行の水準を実質的に下回らず、老後所得の安定を確保しうることが判明した。

本研究は少子・高齢化が進行している日本の家計行動に焦点をあてる。ミクロデータを使用しながら特に(1)高齢者の消費・貯蓄行動、(2)世帯のリスクプーリング機能、(3)高齢者の就業行動、(4)日本の世代会計、の4つについて解明を試みた。利用したミクロデータは「全国消費実態調査」(平成元年分)および「国民生活基礎調査」である。暫定的な研究結果は次のとうり。 1)家計資産全体の58%は相続によるものである。 2)遺産として残される資産額は1億円を超えている。 3)家計や政府はそれなりのリスクプーリング機能をはたしている。 4)高齢男性の労働力率は年金だけでなく世帯類型にも左右される。 5)日本の将来世代は現代世代のほぼ2倍のNet-Taxを支払うことになる(現行の各種給付制度が不変の場合)。