Details of the Researcher

PHOTO

Kaoru Kakinuma
Section
Frontier Research Institute for Interdisciplinary Sciences
Job title
Associate Professor
Degree

Committee Memberships 1

  • 環境省 砂漠化対処条約関連事業検討委員会 検討委員

    2020/04 - Present

Research Areas 4

  • Environmental science/Agricultural science / Environmental dynamics /

  • Environmental science/Agricultural science / Landscape science /

  • Environmental science/Agricultural science / Environmental impact assessment /

  • Environmental science/Agricultural science / Social-ecological systems /

Papers 35

  1. Global exposure of stunted children to drought-sensitive ecosystems Peer-reviewed

    Kaoru Kakinuma, Aki Yanagawa, Hyungjun Kim

    Environmental Research Letters　2026/06/28

    DOI： 10.1088/1748-9326/ae74e8 　

  2. Crowdsourced biodiversity monitoring fills gaps in global plant trait mapping Peer-reviewed

    Daniel Lusk, Sophie Wolf, Daria Svidzinska, Carsten F. Dormann, Jens Kattge, Helge Bruelheide, Francesco Maria Sabatini, Gabriella Damasceno, Álvaro Moreno Martínez, Cyrille Violle, Daniel Hending, Georg J. A. Hähn, Solana Tabeni, Shyam Phartyal, Fernando Gonçalves, Holger Kreft, Marco Schmidt, Han Chen, Behlül Güler, Jiri Dolezal, Remigiusz Pielech, Anaclara Guido, Ciara Dwyer, Francesca Napoleone, Jacob Willie, André Luís Gasper, Manuel J. Macía, Milan Chytry, Jonathan Lenoir, Dinesh Thakur, Jürgen Dengler, Sebastian Świerszcz, Jan Altman, Ladislav Mucina, Ashish N. Nerlekar, Kaoru Kakinuma, Pravin Rawat, Zvjezdana Stančić, Riccardo Testolin, Mohamed Z. Hatim, Flávio Rodrigues, Jürgen Homeier, Marcia C. M. Marques, James K. McCarthy, M. A. El-Sheikh, Kirill Korznikov, Kilian Gerberding, Teja Kattenborn

    Nature Communications　2026/01/30

    DOI： 10.1038/s41467-026-68996-y 　

    ISSN： 2041-1723

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    <jats:title>Abstract</jats:title> <jats:p> Plant functional traits are fundamental to ecosystem dynamics and Earth system processes, but their global characterization is limited by available field surveys and trait measurements. Recent expansions in biodiversity data aggregation—including vegetation surveys, citizen science observations, and trait measurements—offer new opportunities to overcome these constraints. Here we demonstrate that combining these diverse data sources with high-resolution Earth observation data enables accurate modeling of key plant traits at up to 1 km <jats:sup>2</jats:sup> resolution. Our approach achieves correlations up to 0.63 (15 of 31 traits exceeding 0.50) and improved spatial transferability, effectively bridging gaps in under-sampled regions. By capturing a broad range of traits with high spatial coverage, these maps can enhance understanding of plant community properties and ecosystem functioning, while serving as tools for modeling global biogeochemical processes and informing conservation efforts. Our framework highlights the power of crowdsourced biodiversity data in addressing longstanding extrapolation challenges in global plant trait modeling, with continued advancements in data collection and remote sensing poised to further refine trait-based understanding of the biosphere. </jats:p>

  3. Using Satellite Observations with Field Surveys to Monitor Ecosystem Restoration in AlUla, Saudi Arabia Peer-reviewed

    Mateo Barco Largo, Meshal Alarifi, Sami D. Almalki, Shauna K. Rees, Benjamin P. Y.-H. Lee, Ahmed H. Mohamed, Abdalsamad Aldabaa, Kaoru Kakinuma, Yoshihide Wada

    The International Archives of the Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences　XLVIII-G-2025　183-188　2025/07/28

    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH

    DOI： 10.5194/isprs-archives-xlviii-g-2025-183-2025 　

    eISSN： 2194-9034

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    Abstract. AlUla, a historic town located in Northwestern Saudi Arabia, renowned for beautiful landscapes and cultural significance. With the establishment of The Royal Commission for AlUla (RCU) in 2018, remarkable efforts have been made including, establishment of national parks and nature reserves, implementation of grazing control measures, and various planting initiatives. Monitoring of these efforts has been confined to an annual scale and not on a quarterly basis, which would allow for a more detailed, short-term assessment of their impacts. This study aims to provide a quarterly assessment of NDVI-based land cover and anomaly in Sharaan NP and Gharameel NR during the year 2024. A vegetation survey was conducted in the first trimester of 2024 (Jan–Mar), where species biomass, cover, height was collected using the line-transect method. For short-term and long-term analysis images were collected from Landsat (5-9) and Sentenile-2 satellites, Landcover was derived based on NDVI from Sentinel images. While NDVI anomaly was derived from Landsat datasets. The Analysis was conducted on a trimestral basis (Q1: Jan–Mar, Q2: Apr–Jun, Q3: Jul–Sep, Q4: Oct–Dec). Mean NDVI was calculated and compared to historical averages for anomaly calculation. NDVI showed a marked increase compared to previous years (1990–2023). Vegetation cover trimestral variations were driven by seasonal changes. Sharaan NP showed the best vegetation conditions throughout the year compared to Gharameel NR which is likely due to fencing and livestock grazing exclusion. The relationship between vegetation cover and landscape variability is strongly influenced by the capacity for moisture retention in valleys, hills, and sloped terrains, underscoring the need to keep prioritizing and enhancing restoration efforts in these significant landscapes.

  4. Unprecedented continental drying, shrinking freshwater availability, and increasing land contributions to sea level rise Peer-reviewed

    Hrishikesh A. Chandanpurkar, James S. Famiglietti, Kaushik Gopalan, David N. Wiese, Yoshihide Wada, Kaoru Kakinuma, John T. Reager, Fan Zhang

    Science Advances　11　(30)　2025/07/25

    Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)

    DOI： 10.1126/sciadv.adx0298 　

    eISSN： 2375-2548

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    Changes in terrestrial water storage (TWS) are a critical indicator of freshwater availability. We use NASA GRACE/GRACE-FO data to show that the continents have undergone unprecedented TWS loss since 2002. Areas experiencing drying increased by twice the size of California annually, creating “mega-drying” regions across the Northern Hemisphere. While most of the world’s dry/wet areas continue to get drier/wetter, dry areas are now drying faster than wet areas are wetting. Changes in TWS are driven by high-latitude water losses, intense Central American/European droughts, and groundwater depletion, which accounts for 68% of TWS loss over non-glaciated continental regions. “Continental drying” is having profound global impacts. Since 2002, 75% of the population lives in 101 countries that have been losing freshwater water. Furthermore, the continents now contribute more freshwater to sea level rise than the ice sheets, and drying regions now contribute more than land glaciers and ice caps. Urgent action is required to prepare for the major impacts of results presented.

  5. Heat impacts on an aging society: a spatio-temporal analysis of heatstroke deaths in Japan Peer-reviewed

    Ming Zeng, Emerson Augusto Baptista, Kaoru Kakinuma

    Environmental Research Communications　2024/11/01

    DOI： 10.1088/2515-7620/ad8990 　

  6. Gender inequality in global water security Peer-reviewed

    Kaoru Kakinuma, Yoshihide Wada

    Environmental Research Letters　2024/11/01

    DOI： 10.1088/1748-9326/ad8461 　

  7. Modeling a pastoral social–ecological system and its application to climate risk assessment of traditional livelihoods Peer-reviewed

    Nao Takashina, Kaoru Kakinuma

    Sustainability Science　2024/05/09

    DOI： 10.1007/s11625-024-01498-2 　

  8. Economic inequality expanded after an extreme climate event: a long-term analysis of herders’ household data in Mongolia Peer-reviewed

    Kaoru Kakinuma, Kohei Tamura, Hiroki Takikawa, Yuichiro Fujioka, Kazuhiro Kezuka, Hiroshi Nakamura

    Sustainability Science　2023/12/13

    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC

    DOI： 10.1007/s11625-023-01429-7 　

    ISSN： 1862-4065

    eISSN： 1862-4057

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    Abstract The importance of ending poverty and reducing economic inequality has been explicitly recognized globally. Climate extremes are a critical global risk and can lead to economic damages, but empirical evidence of their effects on economic inequality is limited. Here, we focus on Mongolian pastoralism, which has a coupled socio-ecological system, to examine the trend of economic inequality among herders following a climate extreme event. Mongolia experienced a winter disaster in 2009 that caused a mortality of about 20% of the total number of livestock across the country. We used a long-term livestock panel dataset at the household level (n = 787) during 2004–2013 to examine changes in the economic distribution after the disaster. Economic inequality increased after the disaster (Gini coefficient increased from 0.46 to 0.61), and the increased level of inequality remained 4 years after the disaster. A decomposition of the inequality analysis showed that within-group inequality largely contributed to the greater total inequality, and household groups with a small number of livestock had the largest increase in inequality. Moreover, household groups that did not recover their livestock number had a higher loss rate of livestock during the disaster than household groups that did recover. Although the number of total livestock in the study area did recover after 4 years, we empirically showed that inequality among herders increased after the disaster. This result suggests that economic distributions are critical when examining the socio-economic impacts of climate extremes. We also suggest that preparing for disasters during normal years to alleviate loss of livestock during a disaster, especially for households with a small number of livestock, is a critical way to reduce poverty in the face of more frequent climate extremes.

  9. The development of internal migration flow patterns in Japan Peer-reviewed

    Kaoru Kakinuma, Guy J. Abel

    Regional Studies, Regional Science　2022/12/31

    DOI： 10.1080/21681376.2022.2137427 　

  10. Preliminary quantitative assessment of the multidimensional impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Sustainable Development Goals Peer-reviewed

    Mohamed Elsamadony, Manabu Fujii, Masahiro Ryo, Francesco Fuso Nerini, Kaoru Kakinuma, Shinjiro Kanae

    Journal of Cleaner Production　372　133812-133812　2022/10

    Publisher: Elsevier BV

    DOI： 10.1016/j.jclepro.2022.133812 　

    ISSN： 0959-6526

  11. Benchmarking plant diversity of Palaearctic grasslands and other open habitats Peer-reviewed

    Idoia Biurrun, Remigiusz Pielech, Iwona Dembicz, François Gillet, Łukasz Kozub, Corrado Marcenò, Triin Reitalu, Koenraad Van Meerbeek, Riccardo Guarino, Milan Chytrý, Robin J. Pakeman, Zdenka Preislerová, Irena Axmanová, Sabina Burrascano, Sándor Bartha, Steffen Boch, Hans Henrik Bruun, Timo Conradi, Pieter De Frenne, Franz Essl, Goffredo Filibeck, Michal Hájek, Borja Jiménez‐Alfaro, Anna Kuzemko, Zsolt Molnár, Meelis Pärtel, Ricarda Pätsch, Honor C. Prentice, Jan Roleček, Laura M. E. Sutcliffe, Massimo Terzi, Manuela Winkler, Jianshuang Wu, Svetlana Aćić, Alicia T. R. Acosta, Elias Afif, Munemitsu Akasaka, Juha M. Alatalo, Michele Aleffi, Alla Aleksanyan, Arshad Ali, Iva Apostolova, Parvaneh Ashouri, Zoltán Bátori, Esther Baumann, Thomas Becker, Elena Belonovskaya, José Luis Benito Alonso, Asun Berastegi, Ariel Bergamini, Kuber Prasad Bhatta, Ilaria Bonini, Marc‐Olivier Büchler, Vasyl Budzhak, Álvaro Bueno, Fabrizio Buldrini, Juan Antonio Campos, Laura Cancellieri, Marta Carboni, Tobias Ceulemans, Alessandro Chiarucci, Cristina Chocarro, Luisa Conti, Anna Mária Csergő, Beata Cykowska‐Marzencka, Marta Czarniecka‐Wiera, Marta Czarnocka‐Cieciura, Patryk Czortek, Jiří Danihelka, Francesco Bello, Balázs Deák, László Demeter, Lei Deng, Martin Diekmann, Jiri Dolezal, Christian Dolnik, Pavel Dřevojan, Cecilia Dupré, Klaus Ecker, Hamid Ejtehadi, Brigitta Erschbamer, Javier Etayo, Jonathan Etzold, Tünde Farkas, Mohammad Farzam, George Fayvush, María Rosa Fernández Calzado, Manfred Finckh, Wendy Fjellstad, Georgios Fotiadis, Daniel García‐Magro, Itziar García‐Mijangos, Rosario G. Gavilán, Markus Germany, Sahar Ghafari, Gian Pietro Giusso del Galdo, John‐Arvid Grytnes, Behlül Güler, Alba Gutiérrez‐Girón, Aveliina Helm, Mercedes Herrera, Elisabeth M. Hüllbusch, Nele Ingerpuu, Annika K. Jägerbrand, Ute Jandt, Monika Janišová, Philippe Jeanneret, Florian Jeltsch, Kai Jensen, Anke Jentsch, Zygmunt Kącki, Kaoru Kakinuma, Jutta Kapfer, Mansoureh Kargar, András Kelemen, Kathrin Kiehl, Philipp Kirschner, Asuka Koyama, Nancy Langer, Lorenzo Lazzaro, Jan Lepš, Ching‐Feng Li, Frank Yonghong Li, Diego Liendo, Regina Lindborg, Swantje Löbel, Angela Lomba, Zdeňka Lososová, Pavel Lustyk, Arantzazu L. Luzuriaga, Wenhong Ma, Simona Maccherini, Martin Magnes, Marek Malicki, Michael Manthey, Constantin Mardari, Felix May, Helmut Mayrhofer, Eliane Seraina Meier, Farshid Memariani, Kristina Merunková, Ottar Michelsen, Joaquín Molero Mesa, Halime Moradi, Ivan Moysiyenko, Michele Mugnai, Alireza Naqinezhad, Rayna Natcheva, Josep M. Ninot, Marcin Nobis, Jalil Noroozi, Arkadiusz Nowak, Vladimir Onipchenko, Salza Palpurina, Harald Pauli, Hristo Pedashenko, Christian Pedersen, Robert K. Peet, Aaron Pérez‐Haase, Jan Peters, Nataša Pipenbaher, Chrisoula Pirini, Eulàlia Pladevall‐Izard, Zuzana Plesková, Giovanna Potenza, Soroor Rahmanian, Maria Pilar Rodríguez‐Rojo, Vladimir Ronkin, Leonardo Rosati, Eszter Ruprecht, Solvita Rusina, Marko Sabovljević, Anvar Sanaei, Ana M. Sánchez, Francesco Santi, Galina Savchenko, Maria Teresa Sebastià, Dariia Shyriaieva, Vasco Silva, Sonja Škornik, Eva Šmerdová, Judit Sonkoly, Marta Gaia Sperandii, Monika Staniaszek‐Kik, Carly Stevens, Simon Stifter, Sigrid Suchrow, Grzegorz Swacha, Sebastian Świerszcz, Amir Talebi, Balázs Teleki, Lubomír Tichý, Csaba Tölgyesi, Marta Torca, Péter Török, Nadezda Tsarevskaya, Ioannis Tsiripidis, Ingrid Turisová, Atushi Ushimaru, Orsolya Valkó, Carmen Van Mechelen, Thomas Vanneste, Iuliia Vasheniak, Kiril Vassilev, Daniele Viciani, Luis Villar, Risto Virtanen, Ivana Vitasović‐Kosić, András Vojtkó, Denys Vynokurov, Emelie Waldén, Yun Wang, Frank Weiser, Lu Wen, Karsten Wesche, Hannah White, Stefan Widmer, Sebastian Wolfrum, Anna Wróbel, Zuoqiang Yuan, David Zelený, Liqing Zhao, Jürgen Dengler

    Journal of Vegetation Science　32　(4)　2021/07

    Publisher: Wiley

    DOI： 10.1111/jvs.13050 　

    ISSN： 1100-9233

    eISSN： 1654-1103

  12. First-Year Quantitative Assessment of the Multidimensional Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Sustainable Development Goals Peer-reviewed

    Mohamed Elsamadony, Manabu Fujii, Masahiro Ryo, Francesco Fuso Nerini, Kaoru Kakinuma, Shinjiro Kanae

    SSRN Electronic Journal　2021

    Publisher: Elsevier BV

    DOI： 10.2139/ssrn.3970225 　

    eISSN： 1556-5068

  13. Flood-induced population displacements in the world Peer-reviewed

    Kaoru Kakinuma, Michael J Puma, Yukiko Hirabayashi, Masahiro Tanoue, Emerson A Baptista, Shinjiro Kanae

    Environmental Research Letters　15　(12)　124029-124029　2020/12/05

    Publisher: {IOP} Publishing

    DOI： 10.1088/1748-9326/abc586 　

    eISSN： 1748-9326

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    Abstract Strengthening the resilience of societies to extreme weather events is an urgent and critical priority around the world. Extreme weather often causes population displacement that compromises human security. Environment-induced displacement is multifaceted because climate extremes, population, and socio-economic conditions, among other factors, converge to influence individuals’ decisions to move. When large-scale, catastrophic floods occur, people tend to move both suddenly and rapidly for survival. Quantifying the patterns and mechanisms of such displacement at global scale is essential to support areas at high risk for climate-induced displacement. Here we present the global distribution of vulnerability to floods by mapping potential flood exposure and observed flood-induced displacement. We found that countries in Africa might be highly vulnerable to floods because they have high flood-induced displacement even at low- to mid-level flood exposure. Our results show that income levels (Gross National Income) substantial impact flood-induced displacement. Moreover, the relationship between income levels and displacement is nonlinear, and this nonlinearity indicates large gaps in flood-induced displacement between high- and low-income countries. We suggest that low-income countries, particularly in Africa, face a high likelihood of flood-induced displacement and need to develop adaptation measures to mitigate the potential for displacement and the associated risks.

  14. Association between Cardiovascular Mortality and Economic Development: A Spatio-Temporal Study for Prefectures in Japan Peer-reviewed

    Emerson Augusto Baptista, Kaoru Kakinuma, Bernardo Queiroz

    International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health　17　(4)　1311-1311　2020/02/18

    Publisher: {MDPI} {AG}

    DOI： 10.3390/ijerph17041311 　

  15. Indonesia Provincial Spatial Plans on mangroves in era of decentralization: Application of content analysis to 27 provinces and “blue carbon” as overlooked components Peer-reviewed

    Kevin Muhamad Lukman, Jay Mar D. Quevedo, Kaoru Kakinuma, Yuta Uchiyama, Ryo Kohsaka

    Journal of Forest Research　24　(6)　1-8　2019/11/02

    DOI： 10.1080/13416979.2019.1679328 　

    ISSN： 1341-6979

    eISSN： 1610-7403

  16. Socio-ecological Interactions in a Changing Climate: A Review of the Mongolian Pastoral System Peer-reviewed

    Kaoru Kakinuma, Aki Yanagawa, Takehiro Sasaki, Mukund Palat Rao, Shinjiro Kanae

    Sustainability　11　(21)　5883-5883　2019/10/23

    Publisher: MDPI AG

    DOI： 10.3390/su11215883 　

    eISSN： 2071-1050

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    Coping with climate change in socio-ecological systems is one of the most urgent issues facing the world. This is particularly true in socio-ecological systems, where climate not only influences social and ecosystem dynamics, but also modulates their interaction. In this paper, we presented a conceptual framework through a literature review and a trend analysis for assessing the impact of climate change that incorporates socio-ecological interactions. In particular, we focused on the Mongolian pastoral system, which has tightly coupled socio-ecological interactions, as a model for describing the framework. Our framework suggests that the flexibility in mobility of herders is the principal factor in determining the vulnerability of the socio-ecological system to climate change. The flexibility varies along a climatic gradient and socio-ecological interactions in each region have evolved to be suited to its local climate regime. Herders in northern and central regions of Mongolia move shorter distances, and less flexible, than those in southern (Gobi) region. Climatic hazards, on the other hand have been increasing across Mongolia with a trend toward warmer and drier conditions since the 1960s. We suggest that further warming and drying would have the greatest impact on northern and central regions due to lower flexibility in mobility among herders there coupled with the much higher livestock density in the regions. The findings support that maintaining flexibility of mobile herding will likely be crucial to reducing the vulnerability of the Mongolian pastoral system to climate change.

  17. A developing food crisis and potential refugee movements Peer-reviewed

    Michael J. Puma, So Young Chon, Kaoru Kakinuma, Matti Kummu, Raya Muttarak, Richard Seager, Yoshihide Wada

    Nature Sustainability　1　(8)　380-382　2018/08

    Publisher: Springer Nature America, Inc

    DOI： 10.1038/s41893-018-0123-z 　

    ISSN： 2398-9629

  18. Are water markets globally applicable? Peer-reviewed

    Takahiro Endo, Kaoru Kakinuma, Sayaka Yoshikawa, Shinjiro Kanae

    Environmental Research Letters　13　(3)　2018/03/01

    Publisher: Institute of Physics Publishing

    DOI： 10.1088/1748-9326/aaac08 　

    ISSN： 1748-9326 1748-9318

    eISSN： 1748-9326

  19. Vegetation trends in highly variable precipitation after graing exclusion: a case of Mongolia

    Kakinuma Kaoru, Terui Akira, Sasaki Takehiro, Koyama Asuka, Okuro Toshiya

    Proceeding of Annual Conference　31　116　2018

    Publisher: THE JAPAN SOCIETY OF HYDROLOGY AND WATER RESOURCES

    DOI： 10.11520/jshwr.31.0_116 　

  20. GrassPlot - a database of multi-scale plant diversity in Palaearctic grasslands Peer-reviewed

    Juergen Dengler, Viktoria Wagner, Iwona Dembicz, Itziar Garcia-Mijangos, Alireza Naqinezhad, Steffen Boch, Alessandro Chiarucci, Timo Conradi, Goffredo Filibeck, Riccardo Guarino, Monika Janisova, Manuel J. Steinbauer, Svetlana Acic, Alicia T. R. Acosta, Munemitsu Akasaka, Marc-Andre Allers, Iva Apostolova, Irena Axmanova, Branko Bakan, Alina Baranova, Manfred Bardy-Durchhalter, Sandor Bartha, Esther Baumann, Thomas Becker, Ute Becker, Elena Belonovskaya, Karin Bengtsson, Jose Luis Benito Alonso, Asun Berastegi, Ariel Bergamini, Ilaria Bonini, Hans Henrik Bruun, Vasyl Budzhak, Alvaro Bueno, Juan Antonio Campos, Laura Cancellieri, Marta Carboni, Cristina Chocarro, Luisa Conti, Marta Czarniecka-Wiera, Pieter De Frenne, Balazs Deak, Yakiv P. Didukh, Martin Diekmann, Christian Dolnik, Cecilia Dupre, Klaus Ecker, Nikolai Ermakov, Brigitta Erschbamer, Adrian Escudero, Javier Etayo, Zuzana Fajmonova, Vivian A. Felde, Maria Rosa Fernandez Calzado, Manfred Finckh, Georgios Fotiadis, Mariano Fracchiolla, Anna Ganeva, Daniel Garcia-Magro, Rosario G. Gavilan, Markus Germany, Itamar Giladi, Francois Gillet, Gian Pietro Giusso del Galdo, Jose M. Gonzalez, John-Arvid Grytnes, Michal Hajek, Petra Hajkova, Aveliina Helm, Mercedes Herrera, Eva Hettenbergerova, Carsten Hobohm, Elisabeth M. Huellbusch, Nele Ingerpuu, Ute Jandt, Florian Jeltsch, Kai Jensen, Anke Jentsch, Michael Jeschke, Borja Jimenez-Alfaro, Zygmunt Kacki, Kaoru Kakinuma, Jutta Kapfer, Ali Kavgaci, Andras Kelemen, Kathrin Kiehl, Asuka Koyama, Tomoyo F. Koyanagi, Lukasz Kozub, Anna Kuzemko, Magni Olsen Kyrkjeeide, Sara Landi, Nancy Langer, Lorenzo Lastrucci, Lorenzo Lazzaro, Chiara Lelli, Jan Leps, Swantje Loebel, Arantzazu L. Luzuriaga, Simona Maccherini, Martin Magnes, Marek Malicki, Corrado Marceno, Constantin Mardari, Leslie Mauchamp, Felix May, Ottar Michelsen, Joaquin Molero Mesa, Zsolt Molnar, Ivan Y. Moysiyenko, Yuko K. Nakaga, Rayna Natcheva, Jalil Noroozi, Robin J. Pakeman, Salza Palpurina, Meelis Partel, Ricarda Paetsch, Harald Pauli, Hristo Pedashenko, Robert K. Peet, Remigiusz Pielech, Natasa Pipenbaher, Chrisoula Pirini, Zuzana Pleskova, Mariya A. Polyakova, Honor C. Prentice, Jennifer Reinecke, Triin Reitalu, Maria Pilar Rodriguez-Rojo, Jan Rolecek, Vladimir Ronkin, Leonardo Rosati, Ejvind Rosen, Eszter Ruprecht, Solvita Rusina, Marko Sabovljevic, Ana Maria Sanchez, Galina Savchenko, Oliver Schuhmacher, Sonja Skornik, Marta Gaia Sperandii, Monika Staniaszek-Kik, Zora Stevanovic-Dajic, Marin Stock, Sigrid Suchrow, Laura M. E. Sutcliffe, Grzegorz Swacha, Martin Sykes, Anna Szabo, Amir Talebi, Catalin Tanase, Massimo Terzi, Csaba Tolgyesi, Marta Torca, Peter Torok, Bela Tothmeresz, Nadezda Tsarevskaya, Ioannis Tsiripidis, Rossen Tzonev, Atushi Ushimaru, Orsolya Valko, Eddy van der Maarel, Thomas Vanneste, Iuliia Vashenyak, Kiril Vassilev, Daniele Viciani, Luis Villar, Risto Virtanen, Ivana Vitasovic Kosic, Yun Wang, Frank Weiser, Julia Went, Karsten Wesche, Hannah White, Manuela Winkler, Piotr T. Zaniewski, Hui Zhang, Yaron Ziv, Sergey Znamenskiy, Idoia Biurrun

    PHYTOCOENOLOGIA　48　(3)　331-347　2018

    DOI： 10.1127/phyto/2018/0267 　

    ISSN： 0340-269X

  21. Detection of vegetation trends in highly variable environments after grazing exclusion in Mongolia Peer-reviewed

    Kaoru Kakinuma, Akira Terui, Takehiro Sasaki, Asuka Koyama, Undarmaa Jamsran, Toshiya Okuro, Kazuhiko Takeuchi

    JOURNAL OF VEGETATION SCIENCE　28　(5)　965-974　2017/09

    DOI： 10.1111/jvs.12551 　

    ISSN： 1100-9233

    eISSN： 1654-1103

  22. A seawater desalination scheme for global hydrological models Peer-reviewed

    Naota Hanasaki, Sayaka Yoshikawa, Kaoru Kakinuma, Shinjiro Kanae

    Hydrology and Earth System Sciences　20　(10)　4143-4157　2016/10/12

    DOI： 10.5194/hess-20-4143-2016 　

    ISSN： 1607-7938 1027-5606

    eISSN： 1607-7938

  23. A seawater desalination scheme for global hydrological models

    Naota Hanasaki, Sayaka Yoshikawa, Kaoru Kakinuma, Shinjiro Kanae

    Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions　1-25　2016/03

    Publisher: Copernicus {GmbH}

    DOI： 10.5194/hess-2016-119 　

    ISSN： 1812-2116

  24. MONTHLY RESERVOIR INFLOW FORECASTING IN THAILAND: A COMPARISON OF ANN-BASED AND HISTORICAL ANALOUGE-BASED METHODS Peer-reviewed

    Somchit AMNATSAN, Yoshihiko ISERI, Aki YANAGAWA, Sayaka YOSHIKAWA, Kaoru KAKINUMA, Shinjiro KANAE

    Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B1 (Hydraulic Engineering)　72　(4)　I{\_}7-I{\_}12　2016

    Publisher: Japan Society of Civil Engineers

    DOI： 10.2208/jscejhe.72.i_7 　

    ISSN： 2185-467X

  25. Coupled social and ecological dynamics of herders in Mongolian rangelandse Peer-reviewed

    Joung Hun Lee, Kaoru Kakinuma, Toshiya Okuro, Yoh Iwasa

    ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS　114　208-217　2015/06

    DOI： 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2015.03.003 　

    ISSN： 0921-8009

    eISSN： 1873-6106

  26. Institutional options for water scarcity: Potential application of water trades

    Kakinuma Kaoru, Yoshikawa Sayaka, Endo Takahiro, Kanae Shinjiro

    Proceeding of Annual Conference　28　(0)　100091-100091　2015

    Publisher: THE JAPAN SOCIETY OF HYDROLOGY AND WATER RESOURCES

    DOI： 10.11520/jshwr.28.0_100091 　

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    Water scarcity due to climate changes and growing human population is a major concern for the world. Adaptation strategies should be developed for water scarcity in the future. Previous studies assessed the future water availability by hard technology as adaptation strategies. On the other hand, soft path such as water law would also be important for adaptation strategies. Water trade is reallocation of water among water users. If water trades are permitted in these areas, water can be moved from surplus areas/sections to critical need areas/sections. However the factors that determined the establishment of water transfer are not clear. Here we reviewed the several water trades in Australia, California and Chile to find factors that affecting water trades. Then we present potential areas to apply the water market based on the factors by investigating the water law in 197 countries and regions.

  27. FACTORS AFFECTING WATER TRADES: LESSON FROM CALIFORNIA, AUSTRALIA AND CHILE

    Kaoru KAKINUMA, Sayaka YOSHIKAWA, Takahiro ENDO, Shinjiro KANAE

    Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B1 (Hydraulic Engineering)　71　(4)　I_1357-I_1362　2015

    Publisher: Japan Society of Civil Engineers

    DOI： 10.2208/jscejhe.71.i_1357 　

    ISSN： 2185-467X

    eISSN： 2185-467X

  28. Relationship Between Pastoralists' Evaluation of Rangeland State and Vegetation Threshold Changes in Mongolian Rangelands Peer-reviewed

    Kaoru Kakinuma, Takehiro Sasaki, Undarmaa Jamsran, Toshiya Okuro, Kazuhiko Takeuchi

    ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT　54　(4)　888-896　2014/10

    DOI： 10.1007/s00267-014-0341-8 　

    ISSN： 0364-152X

    eISSN： 1432-1009

  29. Herding strategies during a drought vary at multiple scales in Mongolian rangeland Peer-reviewed

    Kaoru Kakinuma, Tomoo Okayasu, Undarmaa Jamsran, Toshiya Okuro, Kazuhiko Takeuchi

    JOURNAL OF ARID ENVIRONMENTS　109　88-91　2014/10

    DOI： 10.1016/j.jaridenv.2014.05.024 　

    ISSN： 0140-1963

    eISSN： 1095-922X

  30. Global water resources assessment taking technologies for adaptation into account - Focusing on desalination

    Hanasaki Naota, Yoshikawa Sayaka, Kakinuma Kaoru, Kanae Shinjiro

    Proceeding of Annual Conference　27　100133-100133　2014

    Publisher: THE JAPAN SOCIETY OF HYDROLOGY AND WATER RESOURCES

    DOI： 10.11520/jshwr.27.0_100133 　

    More details Close

    Water is indispensable resources for the society. Transition toward sustainable use of water is needed because water demand is rapidly growing globally. We projected future production of desalination globally based on the global water resources assessment carried out by Hanasaki and others.

  31. Marmot Disturbance Drives Trait Variations Among Five Dominant Grasses in a Mongolian Grassland Peer-reviewed

    Takehiro Sasaki, Kaoru Kakinuma, Yu Yoshihara

    RANGELAND ECOLOGY & MANAGEMENT　66　(4)　487-491　2013/07

    DOI： 10.2111/REM-D-12-00055.1 　

    ISSN： 1550-7424

  32. Rangeland management in highly variable environments: Resource variations across the landscape mediate the impact of grazing on vegetation in Mongolia Peer-reviewed

    Kaoru Kakinuma, Tomoo Okayasu, Takehiro Sasaki, Undarmaa Jamsaran, Toshiya Okuro, Kazuhiko Takeuchi

    Grassland Science　59　(1)　44-51　2013/03

    DOI： 10.1111/grs.12008 　

    ISSN： 1744-6961 1744-697X

  33. Vegetation in a Post-Ecological Threshold State May Not Recover after Short-Term Livestock Exclusion in Mongolian Rangelands Peer-reviewed

    Takehiro Sasaki, Toshiya Ohkuro, Kaoru Kakinuma, Tomoo Okayasu, Undarmaa Jamsran, Kazuhiko Takeuchi

    ARID LAND RESEARCH AND MANAGEMENT　27　(1)　101-110　2013/01

    DOI： 10.1080/15324982.2012.719568 　

    ISSN： 1532-4982

  34. Applying local knowledge to rangeland management in northern Mongolia: do ‘narrow plants’ reflect the carrying capacity of the land? Peer-reviewed

    Kaoru Kakinuma, Seiki Takatsuki

    Pastoralism　2　(1)　23　2012/12/01

    Publisher: SpringerOpen

    DOI： 10.1186/2041-7136-2-23 　

    ISSN： 2041-7136

  35. How Pastoralists in Mongolia perceive vegetation changes caused by grazing Peer-reviewed

    Kaoru Kakinuma, Takahiro Ozaki, Seiki Takatsuki, Jonjin Chuluun

    Nomadic Peoples　12　(2)　67-73　2008/12

    Publisher: White Horse Press

    DOI： 10.3167/np.2008.120205 　

    ISSN： 0822-7942

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Misc. 3

  1. Beyond disciplines

    Kaoru KAKINUMA

    JOURNAL OF JAPAN SOCIETY OF HYDROLOGY AND WATER RESOURCES　35　(5)　358-358　2022/09/05

    Publisher: Japan Society of Hydrology and Water Resources

    DOI： 10.3178/jjshwr.35.358 　

    ISSN： 0915-1389

    eISSN： 1349-2853

  2. 気がついたら上海に

    柿沼薫

    個体群生態学会会報　79　19-22　2022/08

  3. The Linkage Between Pastoralists' Perspectives and Vegetation Threshold Changes in Mongolian Rangelands (Advanced Studies on Sustainable Animal Production: Interrelationships among Human, Animal and Environment, 8th International Symposium of Integrated Field Science)

    KAKINUMA Kaoru, SASAKI Takehiro, OKAYASU Tomoo, JAMSRAN Undarmaa, OHKURO Toshiya, TAKEUCHI Kazuhiko

    Journal of Integrated Field Science　8　119-119　2011/03

    Publisher: Field Science Center, Graduate School of Agricultural Science, Tohoku University

Books and Other Publications 2

  1. 環境と人間

    東北大学教養教育院

    東北大学出版会　2024/02

    ISBN: 9784861633959

  2. 保全生態学の挑戦 : 空間と時間のとらえ方

    宮下, 直, 西廣, 淳, 海部, 健三, 西田, 伸, 智和, 正明, 鹿野, 雄一, 宮崎, 佑介, 吉岡, 明良, 遠山, 弘法, 辻野, 亮, 小野田, 雄介, 矢原, 徹一, 亘, 悠哉, 小柳, 知代, 柿沼, 薫, 深澤, 圭太

    東京大学出版会　2015/06

    ISBN: 9784130602280

Presentations 21

  1. Heatstroke mortality under climate and demographic transitions: 28-year spatio-temporal analysis in Japan

    Kaoru Kakinuma, Nozomu Inoue

    European Geoscience Union 2026　2026/05/04

  2. Linking spatially uneven population aging to heatstroke mortality in Japan (1995–2022) International-presentation Invited

    2025/10/30

  3. Climate Change and an Aging Society: The Rapid Increase of Heatstroke Deaths in Japan (1972-2022) International-presentation

    Kaoru Kakinuma, Nozomu Inoue

    30th International Population Conference　2025/07/16

  4. Does Having Pre-existing Medical Conditions Elevate the Risk of Heatstroke Mortality? Evidence from Japan (2013–2022) International-presentation

    Nozomu Inoue, Kaoru Kakinuma

    Population Association of America 2025

  5. Integrating Satellite Observations with Field Surveys to Monitor Ecosystem Restoration across Multiple Landscapes in AlUla, Saudi Arabia International-presentation International-coauthorship

    Alarifi Meshal, Barco Largo Mateo, Kakinuma Kaoru, Wada Yoshihide, P Y-H Lee Benjamin, Mohamed Ahmed, Aldabaa Abdalsamad

    ISPRS Geospatial Week 2025　2025/04/09

  6. 砂漠化・放牧地管理における在来知 Invited

    柿沼薫

    日本学術会議 公開シンポジウム「フィールド研究における総合知～知識から実践へ～」　2023/09

  7. Mapping global gender inequality in water security

    Kaoru Kakinuma, Yoshihide Wada

    Cross-sectoral ISI-MIP and PROCLIAS workshop　2023/06

  8. Heat Impacts on an Aging Society: Spatiotemporal Analysis of Heatstroke Risk in Japan

    Zheng M., Kakinuma K., Baptista E.

    Population Association of America (PAA) 2023　2023/04

  9. Extreme weather events have intensified economic inequality: A long-term analysis of household livestock data in Mongolia

    2022/03

  10. Heat impacts on an aging society: Spatiotemporal analysis of heatstroke in Japan

    Zheng M, Kakinuma K

    American Geophysical Union (AGU) 2021　2021/12

  11. Global flood impacts on population displacements

    Kakinuma K., Puma J. P., Hirabayashi Y., Tanoue M., Baptista A. E., Kanae S.

    2021/12

  12. Global risk of flood-induced population displacements

    Kakinuma K, Puma J. P, Hirabayashi Y, Tanoue M, Baptista A. E, Kanae S

    2021/12

  13. Climate extreme impacts on socio-ecological dynamics in Mongolia Invited

    Kaoru Kakinuma

    International Symposium "Human-nature systems in ecological studies and ecosystem/resource management"　2021/07/26

  14. Extreme weather events and population displacements in the world

    The 5th Asian Population Association Conference　2021/07

  15. Winter disaster and economic inequality among herders in Mongolia Invited

    Kaoru Kakinuma

    Xishuangbanna Botanical Garden Seminar　2021/04

  16. Global assessment of flood-induced displacement

    K. Kakinuma, M. J. Puma, Y. Hirabayashi, M. Tanoue, E. A. Baptista, S. Kanae

    American Geophysical Union (AGU) 2020　2020/12

  17. An extreme weather event and economic inequality: Findings from household-based livestock data during 2004-2014 in Mongolia

    K. KAKINUMA, K. TAMURA, H. TAKIKAWA, H. NAKAMUR

    The 67th Annual Meeting of the Ecology Society of Japan　2020/03

  18. Dzud and rural-urban migration Invited

    K. Kakinuma

    Symposium "Urban Mongolia: Phases of Transformation"　2019/12

  19. An extreme weather event has intensified economic disparity in Mongolia

    Kakinuma K, Tamura K, Takikawa H, Nakamura H

    American Geophysical Union (AGU) 2019　2019/12

  20. 水取引は全世界的に適用可能なソフト・パスなのか？

    遠藤崇浩, 柿沼薫, 吉川沙耶花, 鼎信次郎

    水文・水資源学会2018年度総会　2018/09

  21. Who Is at Risk of Heatstroke Mortality? Risk Profiles in Japan International-presentation

    Nozomu Inoue, Kaoru Kakinuma

    Southern Demographic Association 2025　2025/10/15

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Research Projects 7

  1. Modeling Climate-Induced Migration: Integrating Socio-Ecological Vulnerability to Climate Extremes

    Offer Organization: The Ministry of Science and ICT through the National Research Foundation of Korea

    System: Brain Pool Program

    Institution: Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology (Host: Prof. Hyungjun Kim)

    2024/10 - 2025/09

  2. 水害後の人口移動と高齢化加速：人口学的増幅効果の実証

    柿沼 薫

    Offer Organization: 日本学術振興会

    System: 科学研究費助成事業

    Category: 国際共同研究加速基金(帰国発展研究)

    2025 - 2025

  3. 民族誌データと数理モデルの融合による社会構造変動理論の構築：格差に着目して

    瀧川 裕貴, 毛塚 和宏, 藤岡 悠一郎, 田村 光平, 柿沼 薫

    Offer Organization: 日本学術振興会

    System: 科学研究費助成事業

    Category: 挑戦的研究(萌芽)

    Institution: 東北大学

    2019/06/28 - 2023/03/31

    More details Close

    本申請課題の目的は、人間の社会構造における多様性の発生要因および発生過程を、とくに格差に注目して長期的スケールで説明可能なモデルを構築することである。本年度は、ナミビアおよびモンゴルでのフィールド調査を予定していたが、新型コロナウイルス感染症流行のため再度、実施を延期することとなった。その代替として、昨年度に引き続き、すでに入手済みのモンゴルにおける家畜頭数推移の調査データを分析した。分析により、モンゴルにおいて2009-2010の雪害の後、ジニ係数で測定した家畜所有の不平等が拡大したこと、家畜数の少ない世帯間での不平等がとくに顕著であったこと、災害で家畜を多く失った世帯ほど回復が困難となることなどを明らかにした。この研究は学会で報告され、国際誌への投稿を準備中である。また、雪害における格差拡大のメカニズムについては、個体群動態におけるアリー効果に着目した数理モデルを提案し、データを分析した。その結果については別個、学会にて報告し、国際誌への投稿を予定している。数理モデル構築については、ナミビアとモンゴルの事例を包括的に説明可能な一般性の高いモデルの作成を試みている。昨年に引き続き、牧畜と農耕という2つの生業への分散的投資の割合を戦略としてモデル化し、さらに環境変動を加味した場合に、いかなる戦略が均衡戦略となり、その下で財産の不平等の程度がどのようになるかを検討した。

  4. Development of key resource management methods to achieve both environmental restoration and sustainable land use in dust source regions

    Okuro Toshiya

    Offer Organization: Japan Society for the Promotion of Science

    System: Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research

    Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)

    Institution: The University of Tokyo

    2019/04/01 - 2022/03/31

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    In order to develop vegetation management measures that contribute to solving the two problems of "sustainable resource use" and "dust source control" in arid lands, we conducted field surveys of the distribution and use of key resources and saltation in the Gobi steppe of Mongolia. The results showed that the generation of saltation could be suppressed by reducing the spatial heterogeneity of vegetation distribution, and that there is a possibility of simultaneously combating desertification and achieving sustainable resource use through rotational management between protection and utilization.

  5. Socio-ecological Resilience under Environmental Variability: The Role of Pastoralist Mobility in Mongolia

    Offer Organization: Japan Society for the Promotion of Science

    System: Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research

    Category: Grant-in-Aid for Early-Career Scientists

    Institution: Tohoku University

    2019/04/01 - 2022/03/31

  6. 社会―生態システムの気候変動に対する脆弱性評価：水環境と資源管理形態の将来予測

    柿沼 薫

    Offer Organization: 日本学術振興会

    System: 科学研究費助成事業 特別研究員奨励費

    Category: 特別研究員奨励費

    Institution: 東京工業大学

    2015/04/24 - 2018/03/31

    More details Close

    気候変動に伴う極端な気象現象（干ばつ・洪水など）の増大は、人類が直面する重大なリスクの一つである。国連・気候変動に関する政府間パネル(IPCC)第５次報告書によると、乾燥地は将来の気候変動によって干ばつ頻度の増加が懸念されており、気候変動が資源利用へ与える影響の評価と、持続的資源管理を実現するための適応策の提案が早急の課題である。気候変動への脆弱性を評価するためには、社会と生態系が歴史的に築いてきた関係に着目し、気候変動に対する社会・生態的相互作用の応答を明らかにする必要がある。 申請者は当該年度、コロンビア大学/NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studiesへ滞在し、海外の研究者とも協力しながら、気候変動下における社会―生態システムの応答について研究を展開させた。とくにモンゴル放牧草原を対象に、気候変動に対する社会―生態システムの応答と脆弱性の解明に取り組んだ。Hazard (気温、降水量、干ばつ指数）,Exposure (家畜密度、人口密度)、Vulnerability(遊牧民の災害時移動、災害に対する植生の応答)に着目し、それぞれのトレンドを文献調査およびデータ解析から明らかにした。これらの成果は国際学会で発表され、論文の準備も進められている。さらに、気候が大きく変動する環境における草原生態系の荒廃からの回復可能性についても検証した。これらの結果は、Journal of Vegetation Scienceに論文として発表している。そして、世界における植生のデータベース（GrassPlot）へも参加し、気候変動の影響評価を実施する上で重要となる、グローバルスケールでのデータベース構築にも貢献した。この成果も、Phytocoenologia,へ共著論文として発表されている。

  7. モンゴルにおける牧民の伝統的知識と生態学的知見の融合による持続的土地管理

    柿沼 薫

    Offer Organization: 日本学術振興会

    System: 科学研究費助成事業 特別研究員奨励費

    Category: 特別研究員奨励費

    Institution: 東京大学

    2010 - 2011

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    本研究「モンゴルにおける牧民の伝統的知識と生態学的知早の融合による持続的土地管理」では、砂漠化が進む北東アジアの放牧草地を対象に、砂漠化した土地の生態系再生と持続的な生物資源利用の両立が可能となるような放牧地管理の方策を検討することを目的としている。対象地は、伝統的遊牧システムの崩壊と放牧インパクトの増大が問題となっているモンゴルとした。 乾燥地における持続的放牧地管理を実現するための重要な課題として、干ばつと放牧活動が生態系へ与える複合的影響を理解することがあげられる。乾燥地では干ばつが頻発して起るため、しばしば放牧圧が生態系へ及ぼす影響がみえにくく、降水量との相対的重要性がしばしば議論されてきた。一方で、牧民は干ばつ時に家畜を維持するため植生の空間的異質性を利用することが分かっている。牧民の干ばつ時の動きを明らかにすることで、降水量、放牧圧という二つの要因が植生動態へどのように影響しているのか明らかにすることができると期待されている。 今年度の研究では、干ばつ時の移動戦略と牧民の経済性の関係について明らかにし、さらに牧民が利用する資源分布の地図化を行った。まず、干ばつに対して牧民がとる戦略と経済状態関係を明らかにするため、77人の現地牧民を対象に聞き取り調査を実施した。干ばつ時にどのような群落へ家畜を放すか、実際にどこへ移動したか、さらに経済状態の指標として所有する家畜数を聞き取った。その結果、干ばつ時に植生が少ない状況で裕福な牧民は長距離移動を行い、雨が降って植生量が豊富な場所へアクセスすることが分かった。一方で貧しい牧民は、短距離移動でアクセス可能な川や湖の跡といった生産性が高い場所に存在するイネ科群落を頻繁に利用することが分かった。これらの結果から、社会構造が牧民の移動戦略、そして放牧圧による荒廃の空間的パターンへ大きく影響することが示された。

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Teaching Experience 6

  1. Global Environmental Challenges & Demography　Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology

  2. Global Environmental Challenges & Demography　Shanghai University

  3. Population and Environment, Climate Change　Shanghai University

  4. 生態学　東京農工大学

  5. 生物と環境　埼玉東萌短期大学

  6. 情報リテラシー　東邦大学理学部

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Social Activities 1

  1. モンゴル遊牧⺠の移動のふしぎ〜人と自然の関係を考える〜

    第160 回サイエンスカフェ講演

    2019/01 - 2019/01

Media Coverage 4

  1. Humanity is rapidly depleting water and much of the world is getting drier

    Los Angeles Times　Climate & Environment

    2025/09

    Type: Newspaper, magazine

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    The Los Angeles Times covered my co-authored Science Advances paper by Chandanpurkar et al. (2025) (doi:10.1126/sciadv.adx0298), which analyzed GRACE/GRACE-FO satellite observations to quantify unprecedented continental terrestrial water storage loss since 2002 and the expansion of “mega-drying” regions, highlighting groundwater depletion as a dominant driver and a growing contribution to sea-level rise.

  2. #30-2【気候変動で生活はどう変わる？】データの組み合わせが明かす環境問題の影響

    一般社団法人 LeaL　科学系ポッドキャスト サイエンスラバー　https://leal.or.jp/podcast_230915/

    2023/09

    Type: Internet

  3. #30-1 遊牧⺠と暮らす研究:モンゴルで目指す持続可能な放牧環境

    一般社団法人 LeaL　科学系ポッドキャスト サイエンスラバー　https://leal.or.jp/podcast_230915/

    2023/09

    Type: Internet

  4. Global flood impacts on population displacements

    American Geophysical Union　AGU Fall Meeting 2021 Press Conference　https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=newvLaELJuY

    2021/12

    Type: Internet

Academic Activities 1

  1. World Bank Report "Continental Drying: A Threat to Our Common Future"

    2025/11/04 - 2025/11/04

    Activity type: Other

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    External collaborator for the World Bank report Continental Drying: A Threat to Our Common Future doi:10.1596/978-1-4648-2269-8