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Makoto Okumura

Section

International Research Institute of Disaster Science

Job title

Professor

Degree

博士（工学）（京都大学）
工学修士（京都大学）

researchmap

https://researchmap.jp/read0210548

J-GLOBAL ID

200901098750961990

e-Rad No.

00194514

Profile

Brief Career:
1987-1995 Research Associate, Kyoto University, Department of Civil Engineering
1995-2006 Associate Professor, Hiroshima University, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
2006- Professor, Tohoku University
Academic Societies & Scientific Organizations:
Japan Society of Civil Engineers (JSCE)
Regional Science Association International (RSAI)
City Planning Institute Japan (CPIJ)
Applied Regional Science Conference (ARSC)

Research History 8

2012/04 - Present

International Institute of Disaster Science (IRIDeS), Tohoku University　Professor
2006/04 - 2012/03

Center for Northeast Asian Studies (CNEAS), Tohoku University　Professor
2001/04 - 2006/03

Graduate School of Engineering, Hiroshima University　Associate Professor
2001/08 - 2002/02

CEFTRU, University of Brasillia　Expert of JICA Project Leader
1995/04 - 2001/03

Faculty of Engineering, Hiroshima University　Associate Professor
1992/04 - 1995/03

Faculty of Engineering, Kyoto University　Assistant Professor
1992/06 - 1993/06

Center for Energy and Environment Studies, Boston University　Visiting Researcher
1987/04 - 1992/03

Faculty of Engineering, Kyoto University　Research Associate

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Education 2

Kyoto University　Graduate School, Division of Engineering　Department of Transportation Engineering

- 1986/03
Kyoto University　Faculty of Engineering　Department of Transportation Engineering

- 1984/03

Committee Memberships 7

Japan Society of Civil Engineers　Chair of Tohoku Branch

2023/06 - 2024/05
Applied Regional Science Conference　President

2021/04 - 2023/03
City Planning Society of Japan　Chair of Tohoku Branch

2019/05 - 2021/05
Editorial Committee of Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers　Editor in Chief

2018/06 - 2020/05
Research Committee of Infrastructure Planning and Management in JSCE　Vice chair

2017/07 - 2019/06
Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Tohoku Branch　Chief Manager

2012/05 - 2013/05
Editorial Committee for Journal of Applied Regional Science　Editor in chief

2008/11 - 2011/12

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Professional Memberships 8

スケジューリング学会
Japan Society of Civil Engineers
Japan association for planning administration
Japan Society of Traffic Engineers
Regional Science Association International
Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies
The city planning society of Japan
Applied Regional Science Conference

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Research Interests 3

regional planning
transpotration planning
infrastructure planning

Research Areas 3

Social infrastructure (civil Engineering, architecture, disaster prevention) / Civil engineering (planning and transportation) /
Social infrastructure (civil Engineering, architecture, disaster prevention) / Safety engineering /
Social infrastructure (civil Engineering, architecture, disaster prevention) / Social systems engineering /

Awards 10

Best Paper Award in Infrastructure Planning and Management

2023/11　Research Committee of Infrastructure Planning and Management, Japan Society of Civil Engineers　SIMULTANEOUS OPTIMIZATION OF NETWORK STRUCTURE, OPERATING VOLUME, AND FARES FOR INTERCITY RAILWAY WITH SEASONALLY VARIATIONAL DEMAND
2019年度土木計画学優秀論文賞

2019/12　土木学会土木計画学研究委員会　公共施設の削減方針が洪水避難場所に与える影響
都市計画法・建築基準法制定100周年記念国土交通大臣表彰

2019/06　国土交通大臣
工学部長賞

2015/02　ボリビア国サンアンドレアス大学工学部　GRANDEプロジェクト2010-2015への貢献に対して
Paper Award, City Planning Institute of Japan

2014/05/23　日本都市計画学会　年齢階層別人口統計の高度な活用方法に関する研究
仙台市政130周年記念表彰

2019/07　仙台市長　永年にわたる大型小売店立地法専門委員会委員としての協力
2017年度土木計画学優秀論文賞

2017/11/04　土木学会土木計画学研究委員会　携帯電話GPS情報から分かる熊本地震による行動パターンの被災・回復過程
2017年度土木計画学優秀論文賞

2017/11/04　土木学会土木計画学研究委員会　津波遭遇リスクを最小化する自動車避難最適化モデル
特別教育賞

2014/03　東北大学工学研究科
JSCE Paper Award for Young Researcher

1991/05　土木学会　イベント効果を考慮した地域整備投資に関する研究

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Papers 183

Spatiotemporal Analysis of Human Mobility in Greater Tokyo Area Using Hourly 500 m Mobile Spatial Statistics from 2019 to 2021

Thanakrit Yoongsomporn, Alvin Christopher Galang Varquez, Sunkyung Choi, Makoto Okumura, Shinya Hanaoka, Manabu Kanda

Urban Science　2025/02/18

DOI： 10.3390/urbansci9020050 　
Simultaneous optimization of network and fares for self-financing public transportation system Peer-reviewed

Atsushi Sugama, Makoto Okumura

Asian Transport Studies　10　100135-100135　2024/05
Publisher: Elsevier BV
DOI： 10.1016/j.eastsj.2024.100135 　

ISSN： 2185-5560
Simultaneous Design Model of Public Facility Location, Transit Network, and Fare System Peer-reviewed

Atsushi Sugama, Makoto Okumura

Journal of the City Planning Institute of Japan　59　(1)　43-51　2024/04/25
Publisher: The City Planning Institute of Japan
DOI： 10.11361/journalcpij.59.43 　

ISSN： 0916-0647

eISSN： 2185-0593
Decision Tree Analysis on Railway Vehicle Pre-evacuation from Flood Risk Peer-reviewed

Makoto Okumura, Kazuki Moriai

Transport Policy Studies' Review　26　(2024)　006-014　2024/02
A Study on Digital Model for Decision-Making in Crisis Response Peer-reviewed

Naoko Kosaka, Shuji Moriguchi, Akihiro Shibayama, Tsuneko Kura, Naoko Shigematsu, Kazuki Okumura, Erick Mas, Makoto Okumura, Shunichi Koshimura, Kenjiro Terada, Akinori Fujino, Hiroshi Matsubara, Masaki Hisada

Journal of Disaster Research　19　(3)　489-500　2024

DOI： 10.20965/jdr.2024.p0489 　

ISSN： 1881-2473

eISSN： 1883-8030
SIMULTANEOUS OPTIMIZATION OF NETWORK STRUCTURE, OPERATING VOLUME, AND FARES FOR INTERCITY RAILWAY WITH SEASONALLY VARIATIONAL DEMAND Peer-reviewed

Tomoki YOSHIDA, Makoto OKUMURA

Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. D3 (Infrastructure Planning and Management)　78　(5)　I_605-I_612　2023/05
Publisher: Japan Society of Civil Engineers
DOI： 10.2208/jscejipm.78.5_i_605 　

eISSN： 2185-6540
INTER-CITY SMALL-LOT LOGISTICS NETWORK MODEL CONSIDERING DEPARTURE AND ARRIVAL TIMES Peer-reviewed

Takuto FURUYA, Makoto OKUMURA

Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. D3 (Infrastructure Planning and Management)　78　(5)　I_597-I_604　2023/05
Publisher: Japan Society of Civil Engineers
DOI： 10.2208/jscejipm.78.5_i_597 　

eISSN： 2185-6540
PURPOSE OF SEAWALLS IN MIYAGI PREFECTURE’S TSUNAMI COUNTERMEASURES PLANNED AFTER THE SANRIKU TSUNAMI OF 1933 Peer-reviewed

Chise NISHIWAKI, Makoto OKUMURA, Katsuya HIRANO

Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. D3 (Infrastructure Planning and Management)　78　(5)　I_327-I_335　2023/05
Publisher: Japan Society of Civil Engineers
DOI： 10.2208/jscejipm.78.5_i_327 　

eISSN： 2185-6540
FARE SYSTEM OF PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM AND IT'S EFFICIENCY AND FAIRNESS

Atsushi SUGAMA, Makoto OKUMURA

Japanese Journal of JSCE　79　(20)　n/a-n/a　2023
Publisher: Japan Society of Civil Engineers
DOI： 10.2208/jscejj.23-20076 　

eISSN： 2436-6021
THE IMPACT OF THE ACCOUNTING INTEGRATION OF PERSONAL MOVERS ON PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS IN A SUBURBAN STATION AREA

Atsushi SUGAMA, Makoto OKUMURA

Japanese Journal of JSCE　79　(20)　n/a-n/a　2023
Publisher: Japan Society of Civil Engineers
DOI： 10.2208/jscejj.23-20071 　

eISSN： 2436-6021
Optimal Location of Hierarchical Regional Centers Peer-reviewed

Atsushi Sugama, Makoto Okumura

Journal of the City Planning Institute of Japan　57　(3)　1202-1209　2022/10/25
Publisher: The City Planning Institute of Japan
DOI： 10.11361/journalcpij.57.1202 　

ISSN： 0916-0647

eISSN： 2185-0593
PROCESS ANALYSIS OF IMPLEMENTATION OF TSUNAMI COUNTERMEASURES AFTER THE 1933 SHOWA SANRIKU TSUNAMI Peer-reviewed

Chise NISHIWAKI, Makoto OKUMURA, Katsuya HIRANO

Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. D3 (Infrastructure Planning and Management)　77　(5)　I_359-I_373　2022/05
Publisher: Japan Society of Civil Engineers
DOI： 10.2208/jscejipm.77.5_i_359 　

eISSN： 2185-6540
Understanding Project Performance with Stochastic Interruption Peer-reviewed

Kazuaki Okubo, Makoto Okumura

Sustainability　14　(5)　2964-2964　2022/03/03
Publisher: MDPI AG
DOI： 10.3390/su14052964 　

eISSN： 2071-1050

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It is becoming increasingly important to implement projects with care on environmental conditions. Some projects can be carried out only during the allowable season and interrupted during other seasons. Such a project interruption is expected to affect the quality of the project’s outcome through the decision-making of the stakeholders. This paper investigates the impact of interruption on the decision-making of the project owner and the contractor. We consider a project with some work after the interruption period (two-year project), the owner can select another option (one-year project) where all work is completed before the interruption period. If the fixed cost is higher relative to the benefit, our results show that the contractor prefers the one-year project, even when the owner selects the two-year project. We also represent the two threshold values of the interruption length that determine the owner’s selection and relative quality of outcomes, respectively. It was found that a range of interruption length where the selected project does not provide the higher quality outcome.
Sustainable Network Redesign of Transit Service in Urban Outskirts Peer-reviewed

Atsushi Sugama, Makoto Okumura

Journal of the City Planning Institute of Japan　56　(3)　865-872　2021/10/25
Publisher: The City Planning Institute of Japan
DOI： 10.11361/journalcpij.56.865 　

ISSN： 0916-0647

eISSN： 2185-0593
BACKGROUNDS FOR THE TSUNAMI COUNTERMEASURE FORMULATION IN MIYAGI PREFECTURE AFTER THE 1960 CHILEAN TSUNAMI Peer-reviewed

Chise NISHIWAKI, Makoto OKUMURA

Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. D3 (Infrastructure Planning and Management)　76　(5)　I_523-I_529　2021
Publisher: Japan Society of Civil Engineers
DOI： 10.2208/jscejipm.76.5_i_523 　

eISSN： 2185-6540
OPTIMAL NETWORK STRUCTURE OF INTERCITY PASSENGER TRANSPORTATION CONSIDERING COST SHARING SCHEMES Peer-reviewed

Tomoki YOSHIDA, Makoto OKUMURA

Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. D3 (Infrastructure Planning and Management)　76　(5)　I_977-I_986　2021
Publisher: Japan Society of Civil Engineers
DOI： 10.2208/jscejipm.76.5_i_977 　

eISSN： 2185-6540
A SPATIO-TEMPORAL REPAIR SYNCHRONIZATION POLICY FOR A SMALL-SCALE ROAD PAVEMENT Peer-reviewed

Yuto NAKAZATO, Daijiro MIZUTANI, Makoto OKUMURA

Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. D3 (Infrastructure Planning and Management)　76　(5)　I_233-I_240　2021
Publisher: Japan Society of Civil Engineers
DOI： 10.2208/jscejipm.76.5_i_233 　

eISSN： 2185-6540
MODEL ANALYSIS OF HOKURIKU SHINKANSEN DEVELOPMENT IMPACT ON BUSINESS STRUCTURE OF A REPRESENTATIVE CORPORATION Peer-reviewed

Takumu ISHIKAWA, Makoto OKUMURA

Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. D3 (Infrastructure Planning and Management)　76　(5)　I_451-I_460　2021
Publisher: Japan Society of Civil Engineers
DOI： 10.2208/jscejipm.76.5_i_451 　

eISSN： 2185-6540
MODEL ANALYSIS OF TRANSFER COST REDUCTION IN SUBURBAN TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM Peer-reviewed

Atsushi SUGAMA, Makoto OKUMURA

Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. D3 (Infrastructure Planning and Management)　76　(5)　I_967-I_976　2021
Publisher: Japan Society of Civil Engineers
DOI： 10.2208/jscejipm.76.5_i_967 　

eISSN： 2185-6540
Measurement of Disaster Damage Utilizing Disaster Statistics: A Case Study Analyzing the Data of Indonesia Peer-reviewed

Daisuke Sasaki, Makoto Okumura, Yuichi Ono

Journal of Disaster Research　15　(7)　970-974　2020/12/01
Publisher: Fuji Technology Press Ltd.
DOI： 10.20965/jdr.2020.p0970 　

ISSN： 1881-2473

eISSN： 1883-8030

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The Global Centre for Disaster Statistics (GCDS) in Tohoku University was established in April 2015. One of its main missions is to support the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 (SFDRR) in the monitoring and evaluation of progress by providing support at a national level for building the capacity to develop nationwide statistics on disaster damage and by establishing an improved global database for such statistics. The objective of this study was to find clues for the effective measurement of disaster damage utilizing disaster statistics. In disaster loss databases, we often encounter so many observed variables that it is difficult to establish how severe each disaster was in total. Thus, it was considered that introducing a whole new compound indicator to estimate the scale of each disaster properly would be beneficial. In this context, the authors conducted a principal component analysis (PCA) to introduce new compound indicators. The material data for the analysis were retrieved via the global disaster-related database (GDB) provided by the GCDS. Consequently, it was posited that the score of the first principal component, calculated by a PCA, could be an effective indicator to estimate the specific impact of a disaster. We believe that the findings and proposal of a new indicator in this study will contribute to the literature in that new clues to establish an evidence-based criteria and threshold of disaster data collection are provided.
Optimal Renewal Policy of Multi-functional Facilities Peer-reviewed

Atsushi Sugama, Makoto Okumura

Journal of the City Planning Institute of Japan　54　(3)　758-765　2019/10
Publisher: The City Planning Institute of Japan
DOI： 10.11361/journalcpij.54.758 　

ISSN： 0916-0647

eISSN： 2185-0593
Disappearing distance in city systems

Makoto Okumura, Kiyoshi Kobayashi

The Economics of Disappearing Distance　13-30　2019/09/18
Publisher: Taylor and Francis
Multimodal Intercity Network Manageable on the Collected Fare --- Optimization Model Approach --- Peer-reviewed

Makoto Okumura, Masataka Hoso, Huseyin Tirtom

Proceedings of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies　12　2019/09
Configuration of Effective Contraflow Sections in Tsunami Evacuation Peer-reviewed

Hiroki Takei, Makoto Okumura, Kota Tsumebayashi

5　(2)　A_56-A_63　2019/02

DOI： 10.14954/jste.5.2_A_56 　
REDUCING POLICY OF PUBLIC FACILITIES AND THE ACCESSIBILITY TO FLOOD EVACUATION SITES Peer-reviewed

Atsushi SUGAMA, Makoto OKUMURA

Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. D3 (Infrastructure Planning and Management)　75　(5)　I_223-I_232　2019
Publisher: Japan Society of Civil Engineers
DOI： 10.2208/jscejipm.75.i_223 　

eISSN： 2185-6540
DEMAND-ENDOGENIZED MODEL FOR ANALYZING OPTIMAL INTERCITY TRANSPORTATION NETWORK SHAPE Peer-reviewed

Masataka HOSO, Makoto OKUMURA

Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. D3 (Infrastructure Planning and Management)　74　(5)　I_779-I_786　2018/12
Publisher: Japan Society of Civil Engineers
DOI： 10.2208/jscejipm.74.i_779 　

eISSN： 2185-6540
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS METHOD CONFIGURING THE PERMISSIBLE VEHICLE UTILIZATION RATE IN TSUNAMI EVACUATION Peer-reviewed

Hiroki TAKEI, Makoto OKUMURA

Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. D3 (Infrastructure Planning and Management)　74　(5)　I_181-I_189　2018/12
Publisher: Japan Society of Civil Engineers
DOI： 10.2208/jscejipm.74.i_181 　

eISSN： 2185-6540
A Statistical Analysis of Japanese Inter-Prefectural Migration After Disasters Peer-reviewed

OKUMURA Makoto, ITO Wataru

Journal of Disaster Research　13　(6)　1072-1081　2018/11

DOI： 10.20965/jdr.2018.p1072 　
Transportation in disasters: Lessons learned from GEJE 2011

Makoto Okumura, Jinyoung Kim

Routledge Handbook of Transport in Asia　202-225　2018/06/12
Publisher: Taylor and Francis
DOI： 10.4324/9781315739618 　
Private purpose inter-regional travel: An integrator of historical inter-regional migrations

Makoto Okumura, Hiromichi Yamaguchi

Transportation, Knowledge and Space in Urban and Regional Economics　286-298　2018/04/27
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing Ltd.
東日本大震災広域避難者の移動における高速道路の役割 Peer-reviewed

奥村誠

高速道路と自動車　61　(4)　17-23　2018/04
Risk of Being Caught by Tsunami and Traffic Accident Risk in Vehicle-Pedestrian Mixed Evacuation Peer-reviewed

Takei Hiroki, Okumura Makoto

4　(1)　A_129-A_137　2018/02

DOI： 10.14954/jste.4.1_A_129 　
Analysis of the Effect of Different Demand Trends in Deterministic Relief Inventory Model Peer-reviewed

DAS Rubel, OKUMURA Makoto

Journal of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies　12　757-780　2018/01

DOI： 10.11175/easts.12.757 　
DAMAGE AND RECOVERY PROCESS OF KUMAMOTO EARTHQUAKE IN DAILY STAYING PATTERNS: OBSERVATION BY MOBILE PHONE GPS DATA Peer-reviewed

Hiromichi YAMAGUCHI, Makoto OKUMURA, Hodaka KANEDA, Kyosuke HABU

Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. D3 (Infrastructure Planning and Management)　73　(5)　I_105-I_117　2017/12
Publisher: Japan Society of Civil Engineers
DOI： 10.2208/jscejipm.73.i_105 　

eISSN： 2185-6540
Trade off analysis of various planning norms which had been sought in Compact City Policies Peer-reviewed

Koshi Isono, Makoto Okumura

Journal of the City Planning Institute of Japan　52　(3)　413-420　2017/10
Publisher: The City Planning Institute of Japan
DOI： 10.11361/journalcpij.52.413 　

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Many Japanese cities have adopted "Compact City Policy (CCP)" to realize an efficient urban structure in the future population decrease. Relating to the planning norms for CCP, efficient urban structure, various criteria can be considered, such as citizens' utility, running cost of public service, transportation cost, migration cost, facility building cost, and house building cost. Some of them can be improved through realizing a compact urban structure, but all of them cannot be optimized at once. Various stakeholders having their own efficiency criterionnorm may agree with taking a CCP, but at the end, some of them might be unsatisfied. In this paper, we formulate an optimal location model to find the location of urban functions, which maximizes social surplus. By magnifying a weight for each aspect, we solve the optimal urban structure and clarify the trade-off relationship among the different criteria of efficienciesplanning norms.
Analysis of relief response strategies for a limited information environment Peer-reviewed

Rubel DAS, Makoto OKUMURA

Transport Research Board　(17-03740)　1-10　2017/01
STATISTICAL ANALYSIS FOR EFFECTIVENESS OF CASUALTY REDUCTION DUE TO TSUNAMI TRADITION MEDIA: FOCUS ON TSUNAMI MOMUMENTS AND PLACE NAMES STEMMING FROM TSUNAMI DISASTERS IN AFFECTED AREAS OF THE 2011 GREAT EAST JAPAN EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI DISASTER Peer-reviewed

Shosuke SATO, Yuta HIRAKAWA, Makoto OKUMURA, Fumihiko IMAMURA

Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B2 (Coastal Engineering)　73　(2)　I_1525-I_1530　2017
Publisher: Japan Society of Civil Engineers
DOI： 10.2208/kaigan.73.i_1525 　

ISSN： 1884-2399

eISSN： 1883-8944

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 In Japan, tsunami tradition media has been designed to transfer memories and learned lessons of past tsunami disasters. However, the effectiveness of tsunami tradition media to casualty reduction has not quantitatively clarified ever. In this paper, we evaluated them by statistical analysis using the data of the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and tsunami, focusing on tsunami monuments and place names stemming from tsunami disasters. Consequently, we drew the following three main conclusions. 1) In the 2011 event, casualties in the areas where tsunami tradition media exists were greater than that where tsunami tradition media doesn't exist. 2) Tsunami tradition media exist in high-risk places which are in danger of being affected by large tsunamis and generating large number of casualties. 3) By statistical analysis, it was revealed that human casualty in the areas where the tsunami monuments exist were reduced in the 2011 disaster. It is possible that the tsunami monuments had any influences to regional residents which contribute to disaster reduction.
AUTOMOBILE TSUNAMI EVACUATION MODEL TO MINIMIZE THE RISK OF BEING CAUGHT BY TSUNAMI Peer-reviewed

Makoto OKUMURA, Yumiko KATAOKA, Jinyoung KIM

Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. D3 (Infrastructure Planning and Management)　73　(5)　I_1083-I_1092　2017
Publisher: Japan Society of Civil Engineers
DOI： 10.2208/jscejipm.73.i_1083 　

eISSN： 2185-6540
A relief ordering policy for declining demand and realized shortage cost Peer-reviewed

Rubel Das, Makoto Okumura

Journal of Humanitarian Logistics and Supply Chain Management　6　(1)　100-116　2016/04/04
Publisher: Emerald Group Publishing Ltd.
DOI： 10.1108/JHLSCM-03-2015-0012 　

ISSN： 2042-6755 2042-6747
Grasp of disaster situation and support need inside affected area with social sensing – An analysis of twitter data before and after the 2011 great east Japan earthquake disaster occurring Peer-reviewed

Shosuke Sato, Kazumasa Hanaoka, Makoto Okumura, Shunichi Koshimura

Journal of Disaster Research　11　(2)　198-206　2016
Publisher: Fuji Technology Press
DOI： 10.20965/jdr.2016.p0198 　

ISSN： 1883-8030 1881-2473
TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS OF LEISURE TRAVEL FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTIONS Peer-reviewed

Hiromichi YAMAGUCHI, Makoto OKUMURA

Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. D3 (Infrastructure Planning and Management)　72　(3)　248-260　2016
Publisher: Japan Society of Civil Engineers
DOI： 10.2208/jscejipm.72.248 　

eISSN： 2185-6540

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 How has the frequency distribution of domestic overnight leisure travel changed in the past few decades? In order to answer these questions, we analyze the time series change of travel frequency distribution for the Japanese from 1991 until 2011. We conclude that 1) the average annual travel frequency decreased for 20 years, 2) the zero frequency ratio is increasing, the difference of travel frequency between individuals is also increasing. Moreover, we propose the travel frequency model and explain this time series change by the changes of 3 effects (age, birth cohort and period in each prefectures) in order to understand the differences of travel frequency distributions. The results indicates that 3) the time series change in annual travel frequency can be explained by the changes in age composition and difference among birth cohorts, and 4) the change of zero frequency ratio can be explained by change of period effects and this occur only in rural areas.
Network Fortification Model for Intercity Passenger Transportation Peer-reviewed

Huseyin TIRTOM, Makoto OKUMURA, Hiromichi YAMAGUCHI, Rubel DAS

Journal of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies　11　75-89　2015/12

DOI： 10.11175/easts.11.75 　
Frequency Distribution of Leisure Travel by the Japanese: The Past and Future Peer-reviewed

Hiromichi YAMAGUCHI, Makoto OKUMURA

Journal of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies　11　566-579　2015/12

DOI： 10.11175/easts.11.566 　
Effect of Demand Distributions and Declining Urgency of a Perishable Item in Relief Ordering Policy Peer-reviewed

Rubel DAS, Makoto OKUMURA

Journal of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies　11　708-721　2015/12

DOI： 10.11175/easts.11.708 　
Spatio-temporal pattern in a city during a disaster recovery process: Based on aggregated positioning data of mobile phones Peer-reviewed

Makoto Okumura

Journal of the City Planning Institute of Japan　50　(3)　402-408　2015/10/25
Publisher: City Planning Institute of Japan
DOI： 10.11361/journalcpij.50.402 　

ISSN： 1348-284X
An Evaluation of Tsunami Tradition Media for Human Casualties Reduction - Case of Iwate and Miyagi Prefectures on the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami Peer-reviewed

Shosuke Sato, Yuta Hirakawa, Makoto Okumura, Fumihiko Imamura

Proceedings of The 6th Conference of the International Society for Integrated Disaster Risk Management (IDRiM)2015　2015/10
Use of Landsat TM/ETM plus to monitor the spatial and temporal extent of spring breakup floods in the Lena River, Siberia Peer-reviewed

Toru Sakai, Shigemi Hatta, Makoto Okumura, Tetsuya Hiyama, Yasushi Yamaguchi, Gen Inoue

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF REMOTE SENSING　36　(3)　719-733　2015

DOI： 10.1080/01431161.2014.995271 　

ISSN： 0143-1161

eISSN： 1366-5901
THE STABILITY OF RENEWAL AND CLOSURE STRATEGY OF MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE INCINERATION PLANTS, BASED ON MULTI-PERIOD MULTI-PLANT LOCATION MODEL Peer-reviewed

Kazuaki OKUBO, Makoto OKUMURA, Tatsuki AGATSUMA

Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. G (Environmental Research)　71　(3)　82-92　2015
Publisher: Japan Society of Civil Engineers
DOI： 10.2208/jscejer.71.82 　

ISSN： 2185-6648

eISSN： 2185-6648

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Deterioration of Municipal Solid Waste Incineration Plants (MSWIPs) is becoming a significant social issue in Japan, especially considering decrease of population, and some plants can be renewed or closed under some circumstances. To make a scheduling for renewal or closure of MSWIPs, we apply the multi-period multi-plant location model by Okubo et al., to the south part of Miyagi prefecture. We examine the stability of the timings and priority of renewals and/or closures against the changes in population prediction, maintenance cost of plants, reconstruction cost, and so on. As a result, under realistic parameter changes and error of population forecasting, renewal and closure strategy are very stable at least first 6 years. On the otherhand, the closure decision and timing of the MSWIPs having later year closure plan may vary due to the parameter change.
Existence of Related Industry on Regional Productivity - Using Expanded Concept of Inter-industrial Relationship - Peer-reviewed

Makoto Okumura, Jinyoung Kim

Journal of the City Planning Institute of Japan　49　(3)　909-914　2014/10
Publisher: The City Planning Institute of Japan
DOI： 10.11361/journalcpij.49.909 　

ISSN： 0916-0647

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Every industrial firms facing to the fierce competitions must endeavor to innovations continuously, and acquire a dynamic superiority. For small size firms in local communities are, however, very limited for their own knowledge and information for successful innovation activities. It seems possible to increase the innovation power and average productivity, if such knowledge and information can be exchanged with other firms in the local communities. This paper investigate the effect of the related industry existence onto the productivity of local manufacturing industries by statistical analysis of Prefectural production functions of each industrial sector. The related industries are defined through the expanded concept of inter-industrial relationship from traditional vertical input-output relationship. The results would be useful to discuss the design of new local industrial clusters.
Gasoline Purchasing Behavior of Customers during Disaster Peer-reviewed

Kazuaki Okubo, Makoto Okumura, Ken Kawamoto

Journal of Applied Regional Science　(18)　17-28　2014/10/01

ISSN： 1880-960X
Business service location with spatially stochastic demands: Agglomeration economies generated by interaction costs and localized uncertain Demand-An optimal stock location model approach Peer-reviewed

Makoto Okumura, Makoto Tsukai

Knowledge, Innovation and Space　160-179　2014/07/25
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing Ltd.
DOI： 10.4337/9781783475988.00013 　
ECONOMIC IMPACT ASSESSMENT OF THE GREAT EAST JAPAN EARTHQUAKE TO INDUSTRIAL SECTORS Peer-reviewed

Takayuki FURUHASHI, Hirokazu TATANO, Yoshio KAJITANI, Tetsuya TAMAKI, Makoto OKUMURA

Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. D3 (Infrastructure Planning and Management)　70　(5)　I_197-I_210　2014
Publisher: Japan Society of Civil Engineers
DOI： 10.2208/jscejipm.70.i_197 　

eISSN： 2185-6540
Time Value Distribution and Multi-modal Intercity Travel Network Shape: Theoretical Analysis for the Typical Setting Peer-reviewed

Hiromichi Yamaguchi, Makoto Okumura

9TH INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON TRAFFIC AND TRANSPORTATION STUDIES (ICTTS 2014)　138　(138)　602-611　2014

DOI： 10.1016/j.sbspro.2014.07.244 　

ISSN： 1877-0428
MULTI-PERIOD OPTIMAL FACILITY LOCATION MODEL FOR RENOVATION AND ABOLITION PLANNING Peer-reviewed

Kazuaki OKUBO, Makoto OKUMURA, Tatsuki AGATSUMA

Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. D3 (Infrastructure Planning and Management)　70　(5)　I_211-I_220　2014
Publisher: Japan Society of Civil Engineers
DOI： 10.2208/jscejipm.70.i_211 　

ISSN： 2185-6540

eISSN： 2185-6540

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In the demand decreasing trend for regional public facilities, efficient renovation plan must be discussed in order to avoid the possible increase of running and maintenance cost of the facilities. When there are two or more facilities of same functions in a region, abolition of facilities would become a promising option, if the present users can be reallocated to the neighbor facility. This paper proposes a multiperiod optimal facility location model as an integer programming model containing the endogenous variable of each facility's elapsed years. The model is applied to a renovation problem of 3 virtual waste treatment facilities serving to the waste generated from 6 municipalities, and the basic behavior of the model is clarified.
OUTCOME EVALUATION METHOD OF DROUGHT REDUCTION BY RESERVOIRS Peer-reviewed

Makoto OKUMURA, Hiroshi TANAKA, Kazuaki OKUBO

Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. D3 (Infrastructure Planning and Management)　70　(5)　I_221-I_228　2014
Publisher: Japan Society of Civil Engineers
DOI： 10.2208/jscejipm.70.i_221 　

ISSN： 2185-6540

eISSN： 2185-6540

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Stability of water resource will be harmed by abnormal precipitations caused by the possible climate change in next decades, resulted to increase of drought damages. Dam reservoir enlargement projects are then proposed, but the drought reduction function by reservoirs has not been well analyzed yet. This paper proposes 3 drought indexes which describe 3 aspects of drought phenomenon. Comparison of values of those indexes calculated by inflow and outflow provides the drought reduction measure by each reservoir. Next, that drought reduction function is statistically regressed by reservoir capacity, variation of inflow. Finally, we roughly estimate the required reservoir enlargement to cope with the possible increase of instabilities of inflow.
LOW CARBON POLICY AND OPTIMAL STRUCTURE OF MODAL-MIX NETWORK FOR INTERCITY PASSENGER TRANSPORTATION Peer-reviewed

Huseyin TIRTOM, Hiromichi YAMAGUCHI, Makoto OKUMURA, Jinyoung KIM

Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. D3 (Infrastructure Planning and Management)　70　(5)　I_819-I_827　2014
Publisher: Japan Society of Civil Engineers
DOI： 10.2208/jscejipm.70.i_819 　

eISSN： 2185-6540
AROBUSTOPTIMIZATIONAPPROACHFOR SMALL SIZE HOME ELECTRICAL APPLIANCE RECYCLING SYSTEM Peer-reviewed

Kazuaki Okubo, Makoto Okumura, Seiya Taira

土木学会論文集　69　(D3-69)　687-695　2013/12
Publisher: Japan Society of Civil Engineers
DOI： 10.2208/jscejipm.69.I_687 　

ISSN： 2185-6540

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The increased use of recycled and renewable resources is important for achieving sustainable society. The Ministry of Environment in Japan is planning to introduce legislation for promoting recycling of Small size home electrical appliance and exploring efficient collection system by involving recycling industries. The recycling industries face significant uncertainty in quantity of collected Small size home electrical appliance. Some papers and collection experiments point out variation of collection amount and such uncertainties create disincentives for recycling. We propose a recycler model of Small size home electrical appliance with uncertainty in the amount of collection and examine the effect of introducing budget of uncertainty. We showed that the average profit is increased by considering the budget of uncertainty, when the recycler faces large uncertainty. We found that the standard robust optimization approach, that assume the worst case scenario, does not always minimize the risk, there may exist more desirable scenario.
A STUDY OF LOS ELASTICITY OF INTERCITY TRAVEL DEMAND Peer-reviewed

Hitromichi Yamaguchi, Makoto Okumura, Huseyin Tirtom

土木学会論文集　D3-69　(5)　629-638　2013/12
Publisher: Japan Society of Civil Engineers
DOI： 10.2208/jscejipm.69.I_629 　

ISSN： 2185-6540

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As the intercity traffic flow is decreasing, some local governments should try to keep or improve their accessibility to other cities using public subsidy to intercity transport service. In order to efficiently concentrate their resource for improvement of accessibility, local governments should pick up links where LOS elasticity is comparatively large. In this paper, the intercity demand estimation model with heterogeneous LOS sensitivity is proposed. This model is valuable for calculating LOS elasticity and considering the efficient way to keep accessibility for local city.
Estimation of Residential Experience based on the Pre-residing Prefecture Data in the Japanese Population Census Peer-reviewed

Makoto Okumura, Jinyoung Kim, Kazuaki Okubo

Journal of the City Planning Institute of Japan　48　(3)　933-938　2013/10

DOI： 10.11361/journalcpij.48.933 　
Statistical Analysis on Multivariate Expressway Traffic Series Under the Different Toll Policies Peer-reviewed

Tsukai, M, Inoue, S, Kuwano, M, Okumura, M

Asian Transport Studies　2　(4)　411-420　2013/09

DOI： 10.11175/eastsats.2.411 　
Sequence Analysis of Needs for Relief Goods in Great East Japan Earthquake Peer-reviewed

OKUMURA Makoto, BUNPHONG Kento, OKUBO Kazuaki

Transport Policy Studies　16　(1)　59-67　2013/04
Publisher:
ISSN： 1344-3348
Planning Model of Optimal Modal-Mix in Intercity Passenger Transportation Peer-reviewed

Makoto Okumura, Huseyin Tirtom, Hiromichi Yamaguchi

LTLGB 2012: PROCEEDINGS OF INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON LOW-CARBON TRANSPORTATION AND LOGISTICS, AND GREEN BUILDINGS. VOL 1　361-366　2013

DOI： 10.1007/978-3-642-34651-4_52 　
A FUNDAMENTAL STUDY ON SIMPLIFIED METHOD FOR CALCULATING EARTHQUAKE-INDUCED SLOPE COLLAPSE RATIO Peer-reviewed

Hisakazu SAKAI, Makoto OKUMURA, Takushi SHIWAKU, Takao KAGAWA, Koichi HASEGAWA, Sumio SAWADA, Yuichi TATANO

Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. A1 (Structural Engineering ^|^ Earthquake Engineering (SE/EE))　69　(4)　I_142-I_147　2013
Publisher: Japan Society of Civil Engineers
DOI： 10.2208/jscejseee.69.i_142 　

eISSN： 2185-4653
User's facility selection model considering waiting time and its application to a gas station selection problem in an earthquake disaster Peer-reviewed

Yuya Iwasaka, Kazuaki Okubo, Makoto Okumura

Journal of the City Planning Institute of Japan　47　(3)　997-1002　2012/10
Publisher: The City Planning Institute of Japan
DOI： 10.11361/journalcpij.47.997 　

ISSN： 0916-0647

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In existing research about regional facility location and allocation model, congestion of facilities has not been considered. This study proposes a users' facility selection model considering congestion and waiting time. We show facility selection based on user optimization can be modeled in a similar quadratic programming model as the social optimization model. Such quadratic programming model can be approximately solved by ordinal linear programming algorithm by converting it into minmax problem using piecewise linear approximation. Application of the proposed model to a gas station selection problem in a great earthquake disaster explains consumer's choice of further station to avoid heavy congestion at the nearer stations.
Effect of inter-generational balance on middle-age migration Peer-reviewed

Makoto Okumura, Kazuaki Okubo

Journal of the City Planning Institute of Japan　47　(3)　751-756　2012/10

DOI： 10.11361/journalcpij.47.751 　
FLUCTUATIONS AND RESPONSES IN USED PRODUCT COLLECTION SYSTEMS Peer-reviewed

Kazuaki OKUBO, Makoto OKUMURA

Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. D3 (Infrastructure Planning and Management)　68　(5)　I_1013-I_1024　2012
Publisher: Japan Society of Civil Engineers
DOI： 10.2208/jscejipm.68.i_1013 　

eISSN： 2185-6540
Statistical analysis of operation and maintenance cost of network infrastructure - Municipal water supply systems in Tohoku Region - Peer-reviewed

Makoto Okumura, Hiroshi Tanaka

Journal of the City Planning Institute of Japan　46　(3)　223-228　2011/10
Publisher: The City Planning Institute of Japan
DOI： 10.11361/journalcpij.46.373 　

ISSN： 1348-284X

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It will become more difficult to operate and maintain network infrastructure, such as water, gas and power supply, because density of inhabitants and households will go down in Japan. This paper presents a statistical analysis of operation and maintenance cost of 97 water supply systems in Tohoku Region through estimating a stochastic frontier analysis model. This analysis uses not only the conventional data supplied by the Water Works Census, but also the spatial distribution of population, land-use and elevation data supplied by the MLIT Web site, after converted by a GIS. The estimated model regressed 13.2% of variance of the unit operation cost of water supply system, by the factors, such as customer density, roughness of supplied area, and oldness and other network characteristics.
Winter Road in Sakha Republic and the Effects of Global Warming Peer-reviewed

Makoto Okumura, Ken Kawamoto, Sardana Boyakova

Transport Plicy Studies' Review　14　(3)　16-23　2011/10
Publisher:
ISSN： 1344-3348
Essay: Study on the transportation in low density regions (3 freight transportation and roads) Invited

Okumura Makoto

Docon Report　188　2-7　2011/01
A STUDY OF HIERARCHICAL ORGANIZATION LOCATION MODEL FOR SERVICE INDUSTRY ENTERPRISE Peer-reviewed

Makoto OKUMURA, Naoki TAKADA, Kazuaki OKUBO

Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. D3 (Infrastructure Planning and Management)　67　(4)　408-421　2011
Publisher: Japan Society of Civil Engineers
DOI： 10.2208/jscejipm.67.408 　

eISSN： 2185-6540
AGGREGATION FACTOR SETTING FOR RAILWAY SAMPLES IN THE NATIONAL INTER-CITY TRAVEL SURVEY Peer-reviewed

Makoto OKUMURA, Hiromichi YAMAGUCHI, Kazuaki OKUBO

Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. D3 (Infrastructure Planning and Management)　67　(5)　67_I_911-67_I_918　2011
Publisher: Japan Society of Civil Engineers
DOI： 10.2208/jscejipm.67.67_i_911 　

eISSN： 2185-6540
EXPLORING KNOWLEDGE ACQUIRED BY INFORMATION EXCHANGE THROUGH SOCIAL NETWORK IN AGING SOCIETY Peer-reviewed

Kazuaki OKUBO, Makoto OKUMURA

Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. D3 (Infrastructure Planning and Management)　67　(5)　67_I_399-67_I_406　2011
Publisher: Japan Society of Civil Engineers
DOI： 10.2208/jscejipm.67.67_i_399 　

eISSN： 2185-6540
THE PROPOSAL OF QUANTITATIVE EVALUATION FOR PICK-UP TRANSPORTATION SERVICES CONSIDERING ACTIVITY DIAGRAM Peer-reviewed

Kazuya YAMASHITA, Makoto TSUKAI, Masashi KUWANO, Makoto OKUMURA

Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. D3 (Infrastructure Planning and Management)　67　(5)　67_I_947-67_I_955　2011
Publisher: Japan Society of Civil Engineers
DOI： 10.2208/jscejipm.67.67_i_947 　

eISSN： 2185-6540
Optimal seismic-proof planning model considering transportation of injured people and dispatch of medical teams Peer-reviewed

Makoto Okumura

Journal of the City Planning Institute of Japan　45　(3)　577-582　2010/10
Propagation of Improvement Effects of Critical Inter-city Link -- The Japanese Decadal Change of the Available Travel Routes -- Peer-reviewed

Okumura M, Tsukai M, Kimura Y

Journal of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies　8　297-310　2010/09
Publisher: Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies
DOI： 10.11175/easts.8.297 　

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Unlike the urban highway network, the inter-city network is composed of heterogeneous links of various speeds, costs and frequencies. Improvement of one airway link can possibly provide a new attractive travel route, such as an air connection route, as well as multi-modal route, including middle distance railway access. The improvement effect of a critical link may be propagated over the nation-wide network, unlimited to the direct neighbor connector of the improved link. How such propagation occurred in Japan between 1995 and 2005 is investigated. K-th shortest path search algorithm is applied to find the available set of routes. Remarkable changes in the Tohoku-Western Japan pairs are detected. This paper further analyzes the effects of the Shinkansen expansion to Hachinohe in 2002 on the service level of the available routes for those OD pairs, proving that there are strong multi-modal propagations on the air links at Sendai airport.
Moped Flow Aiming Discrete Target Times Peer-reviewed

Fonseca Nava Carlos, Okumura Makoto

Journal of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies　8　511-522　2010/09
Publisher: Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies
DOI： 10.11175/easts.8.511 　

ISSN： 1881-1124

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There are land uses that are substantial trip attractors during the morning commuting peak hour. However universities are unique in the existence of several additional traffic peaks during a day. A model for students' moped flow based on parking congestion cost and arrival (departure) time is proposed and validated. The model is theoretically formulated considering the equilibrium conditions and numerically validated using a bidirectional, real dataset collected and classified on the road connecting the Kawauchi and Aobayama Campuses of Tohoku University, Sendai, Japan. This model captures the effect of congestion such as the presented on the parking lots; and also, the effect of the queue in terms of psychological discomfort.
Empirical Analysis on Inter-regional Tourism Demand in Japan Considering Trip Generation Peer-reviewed

Tsukai Makoto, Okumura Makoto, Kuwano Masashi

Journal of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies　8　1054-1068　2010/09
Publisher: Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies
DOI： 10.11175/easts.8.1066 　

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In Japan, Japan Tourism Agency is founded in 2008 in order to correspond to increase in tourism demand. In the tourism demand modeling, trip generation, destination choice (traffic distribution), modal choice and tourism duration choice should be considered in the model system. Further, the improvement on inter-regional transportation facilities enables to tour several destinations in two or three days, therefore, the model adequately represents the possibility in touring around the destination. This study estimates the tourism demand model considering trip generation and the passenger traffic distribution simultaneously. By using the disaggregated data sampled from all the regions with the augmentation coefficient, characteristics in tourism demand in Japan such as attractiveness of the tourism resource, the possibility to tour around the destination, and the influence of demographic characteristics of trip maker, are clarified. The effect of the improvement in level-of-service of expressway is simulated.
Essay: Study on the transportation in low density regions (2 inter-regional transportation service) Invited

Okumura Makoto

Docon Report　187　2-7　2010/09
Optimal Seismic-Proof Reinforcement Planning, considering Inspection Time of Expressway Links Peer-reviewed

Kazuhiro Sasaki, Makoto Okumura, Kazuaki Okubo

Infrastructure Planning Review　27　(1)　193-200　2010/09
An Analysis of the Closed-Loop Facility Location, Considering the Variability of Used Products Peer-reviewed

Kazuaki Okubo, Makoto Okumura

Infrastructure Planning Review　27　(2)　417-424　2010/09
Residence and Commuting Mode Allocation Model for Design of University's Transportation Policy Peer-reviewed

Yasuhiro Kawaguchi, Makoto Okumura

Infrastructure Planning Review　27　(5)　909-915　2010/09
Time-dimensional transportation management to decrease the transformation cost of growing cities –An example of safety for the moped in a campus under construction works -- Peer-reviewed

C.A. Nava Fonseca, M.Okumura

Asian Pacific Planning Review　6　(1)　77-84　2010/07
A rank size rule in a firm, produced from a hierarchical branch office location model Peer-reviewed

Makoto Okumura, Makoto Tsukai, Naoki Takada

Review of Urban and Regional Development Studies　22　(2-3)　73-88　2010/07

DOI： 10.1111/j.1467-940X.2010.00170.x 　

ISSN： 0917-0553 1467-940X
Essay: Study on the transportation in low density regions (1 sustainability of local transportation service) Invited

Okumura Makoto

Docon Report　186　2-7　2010/06
Research review about moped accidents and the necessity of time dimensional management in university campus traffic Peer-reviewed

Carlos Nava Fonseca, Makoto Okumura

Proceedings of the Conference on Traffic and Transportation Studies, ICTTS　383　627-637　2010

DOI： 10.1061/41123(383)60 　
Optimal Seismic-Proof Reinforcement Planning, Considering Transportation of Injured People Peer-reviewed

Makoto Okumura, Satoshi Horiuchi, Kazuhiro Sasaki

Infrastructure Planning Review　26　(1)　93-100　2009/11
Analysis on Non-ordinal Traffic to local Airport by using Independent Component Analysis Peer-reviewed

Shin'ichi Inoue, Makoto Tsukai, Masashi Kuwano, Makoto Okumura

Infrastructure Planning Review　26　(3)　583-593　2009/11
Analysis of the Unrealized Demand for Bus Transportation, Based on Passenger Counter Data Peer-reviewed

Nava Fonseca Carlos, Okumura Makoto, Tsukai Makoto

Journal of the City Planning Institute of Japan　44　(3)　469-474　2009/10

DOI： 10.11361/cpij1.44.0.79.0 　
A study of the Rank-size rule -- A micro approach by hierarchical branch location model Peer-reviewed

Naoki Takada, Makoto Okumura, Makoto Tsukai

Journal of the City Planning Institute of Japan　44　(3)　601-606　2009/10
Quantitative Zone Classification based on Transportation Activities

Makoto Okumura, Kazuaki Okubo, Carlos Nava Fonseca

Proceedings of the IGU/LUCC North East Asia Conference 2009　112-117　2009/09/11
Flow-Capturing Location Allocation Programming for More Effective and Robust Locations Peer-reviewed

Makoto Okumura, Satoshi Horiuchi

Proceedings of 11th International Conference on Computers in Urban Planning and Urban Management　11　1-14　2009/06
Inter-generation differences of the most accessible public facility locations Peer-reviewed

Satoshi Horiuchi, Makoto Okumura, makoto Tsukai

Journal of the City Planning Institute of Japan　43　(3)　31-36　2008/10

DOI： 10.11361/cpij1.43.0.6.0 　
Model analysis on branch office location of a business service firm with stochastic demand Peer-reviewed

Naoki Takada, Makoto Okumura, makoto Tsukai

Journal of the City Planning Institute of Japan　43　(3)　913-918　2008/10

DOI： 10.11361/cpij1.43.0.153.0 　
データマイニングによる広島空港流入車両の時間分布パターンの分析 Peer-reviewed

塚井誠人, 井上真一, 奥村誠

交通工学研究発表会論文報告集　28　269-272　2008/10
Publisher:
Analysis of Cross-Regional Cooperation between Local Sightseeing Resources; Toward Broader Sightseeing Area Peer-reviewed

Makoto Okumura, Makoto Tsukai

Infrastructure Planning Review　25　(2)　349-355　2008/09/30
Publisher: Japan Society of Civil Engineers
DOI： 10.2208/journalip.25.349 　

ISSN： 0913-4034

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In order to clarify the characteristics of sightseeing spots expected as the broader sightseeing area, this study statistically analyzed the impact of neighbor sightseeing resources on the sightseeing passenger flow, and on the local accommodation capacity. The estimated models showed that the number of museum has the significant positive impact on passenger flow and accommodation capacity, while the number of hot spring in neighbor areas negatively influence. The national nature reserved park and special historical districts can be developed to the accommodated sightseeing area, if these areas effectively cooperate with the neighbor areas.
Reverse Analysis of Preferred Departure Time of Air Passengers Peer-reviewed

Yuusuke Kimura, Makoto Okumura, Maiko Sakamoto

Infrastructure Planning Review　25　(3)　633-639　2008/09/30
Publisher: Japan Society of Civil Engineers
DOI： 10.2208/journalip.25.633 　

ISSN： 0913-4034

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In this paper, we calculated preferred departure time of air passengers by reverse analysis from actual fright schedule of domestic air service. In addition, we analyzed how a flight schedule affects on the air-rail choice rate. Specifically, we introduced a concept of average schedule cost in order to express a service level of a fright schedule. Next, we calculated preferred departure time of air passengers by reverse analysis based on a multi-store location game model. The multiple regression analysis showed that the average schedule cost using the estimated preferred departure time have negative effect on the air share.
Analysis of Flight Delays and Cancellations at Sendai Airport Peer-reviewed

Hiromichi Kato, Yuusuke Kimura, Makoto Okumura, Makoto Tsukai

Infrastructure Planning Review　25　(3)　723-729　2008/09/30
Publisher: Japan Society of Civil Engineers
DOI： 10.2208/journalip.25.723 　

ISSN： 0913-4034

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Flight delays and cancellations lower the service level of an airport through congestion and confusion. This paper provides a statistical method to grasp typical coincident/defusing patterns of flight delays and cancellations, which becomes a basement for within day prospecting for airport managers. Independent Component Analysis (ICA) is applied to the flight time data of 13 months at Sendai Airport, and picked up 20 patterns of flight delay occurrence and diffusion, due tobad climate, airport congestion and other accidents.
EM Algorithm for Mixed Hazard Model for the Road Traffic Exiting from Airport Peer-reviewed

Makoto Okumura, Makoto Tsukai, Carlos Nava Fonseca, Mitsunori Yoshimura

Infrastructure Planning Review　25　(3)　693-700　2008/09/30
Publisher: Japan Society of Civil Engineers
DOI： 10.2208/journalip.25.693 　

ISSN： 0913-4034

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Road traffic exiting from airport can be modeled by a mixed hazard model, where each hazard function corresponds to the passengers from arrival flight. This paper proposes an iterative estimation procedure for the model based on the theory of EM (Expectation-Maximization) Algorithm. The procedure is applied to the traffic data of four weeks at Sendai Airport, where new railway access line were introduced on March, 18th, 2007. The results shows that arrival passengers by daytime flights do not use railway as much as the morning or evening flyers, possibly depending on their travel purpose.
APPLICATION OF NETWORK FORMATION GAME TO ANALYSIS OF COALITION PHASES ON INFRASTRACTURE CONSTRUCTION Peer-reviewed

Kazuhiro SASAKI, Maiko SAKAMOTO, Makoto OKUMURA

ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS RESEARCH　36　141-147　2008
Publisher: Japan Society of Civil Engineers
DOI： 10.2208/proer.36.141 　

ISSN： 1345-9597

eISSN： 1884-8125

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A methodology is shown to analyze phases of player's coalition formation. It can be used for analyzing inter-regional cooperation which is a relevant problem in Japan. Network formation game is used to model the problem with some extentions on concepts of coalition and coalition formative condition. The coalition among more than 3 players is introduced, which is not considered in the standard network formation game. The coalition formative condition is also introduced taking into account specific characteristics about in frastructure construction. The methodology is applied to oil allocation problem among Caspian coastal countries, and how the methodology works in the real problem is examined.
Air-Rail Inter-modal Network Design under Hub Capacity Constraint Peer-reviewed

Okumura M, Tsukai M

Journal of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies　7　180-194　2007/12
Publisher: Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies
DOI： 10.11175/easts.7.180 　

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Recently, while building or expanding of a large hub airport becomes controversial in economic, social and environmental facets, the idea of inter-modal substitution of short-haul air spokes by high-speed trains (HST) becomes a realistic option. This paper aims to analyze what shape of inter-modal network is efficient, and how beneficial it would be on passengers. Genetic Algorithm is applied to find the best mixture of Haneda Airport’s operation capacity allocation to domestic destinations and the spatial configuration of HST network, maximizing the consumer surplus of Japanese domestic inter-city passengers. The result of our analysis shows that HST service of 2400 km as provided in 2000 is essential for keep mobility, and that operation capacity shortage problem at Haneda is solved by additional HST service. The shape of optimal HST network becomes different according to the change of the operation capacity of Haneda.
仙台空港利用車両の時間分布特性の分析 Peer-reviewed

奥村誠, 塚井誠人, 吉村充功

交通工学研究発表会論文報告集　27　177-180　2007/10
Publisher:
日帰り交通圏の非対称性を考慮した都市間業務交通量・立地量の分析 Peer-reviewed

Makoto Tsukai, Makoto Okumura

土木計画学研究・論文集　24　(1)　59-61　2007/09
Publisher: Japan Society of Civil Engineers
DOI： 10.2208/journalip.24.59 　

ISSN： 0913-4034

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In long range National Development Plan of Japan, several indices were used to describe the accessibility of nation-wide intercity network. Round-Trip-Area within a Day (RTA-D), defined as the set of destination area, which is accessible by one round trip in a day from given origin area is one of the frequently used indexes. This paper aims to empirically analyze the effect of its expansion on business passenger trips and on locations of business establishments. Estimation of a Logarithm Tobit model showed that RTA-D significantly affects on intercity business trips. Estimation of Wilson type disequilibria model showed that the business trip generation can be considered as potential for location of business establishments, while attracted trips mean leakage of that potential. Simulation analysis also showed that asymmetrical improvements of RTA-D results in concentration of business establishments in the origin areas, while symmetric improvements stimulates the business location in local areas.
Influence on Rank-size Rule for Distribution Centers under the Innovations in Logistics Peer-reviewed

Okumura Makoto, Tsukai Makoto

The Second International Conference on Transportation Logistics　No.252:1-18　2007/07
大規模地震による重傷者の搬送計画モデル Peer-reviewed

奥村誠, 塚井誠人, 安村勇亮

交通工学研究発表会論文報告集　26　249-252　2006/10
Publisher:
施設利用交通の目的時刻別交通量への分解 Peer-reviewed

塚井誠人, 奥村誠, 吉村充功

交通工学研究発表会論文報告集　26　237-240　2006/10
Publisher:
行政コスト効率性に基づく市町村合併の評価 Peer-reviewed

塚井誠人, 奥村誠

都市計画論文集　41　(3)　785-790　2006/10

DOI： 10.11361/cpij1.41.0.212.0 　
フレックスタイム導入下の通勤・業務交通に対する最適道路交通容量割り当て Peer-reviewed

吉村充功, 奥村誠

土木計画学研究・論文集　23　(4)　895-902　2006/09
Publisher: Japan Society of Civil Engineers
DOI： 10.2208/journalip.23.895 　

ISSN： 0913-4034

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As the relaxation measure of the road congestion, we review and are implementing the introduction of the TDM policy of the time distributed type. However, when these policies are widely introduced, the part of the business trips which occurred after the commuting time band ended so far gets to occur at the commuting time band, too. In this paper, we think the optimal allocation problem with road traffic capacity to the conflict of the commuting traffic and the business traffic under the flexible work hours. We have proposed the theoretical model which demands the time distributions of the commuting and the business traffics.
航空との補完的サービスを考慮した最適鉄道運行計画 Peer-reviewed

村上直樹, 竹内太郎, 塚井誠人, 奥村誠

土木計画学研究・論文集　23　(3)　629-634　2006/09
Publisher: Japan Society of Civil Engineers
DOI： 10.2208/journalip.23.629 　

ISSN： 0913-4034

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This paper discusses optimal railroad operations considering the complementary service with domestic flights. As an index of consumer's convenience, we formulate the consumer surplus of rail and aviation passengers calculated from the given train frequency on railway links. GA is applied to find the best mixture of number of daily train frequencies for each link maximizing the consumer surplus, with the basis of the given aviation service. We set the service level of aviation links based on the situation in the year 2000 and 1970. From the results of the GA, we show that strengthening the railway service of middle distance band. such as access to airports, is expected, from both viewpoints of travelers' convenience and operators' profitability.
地価・土地利用モデルを用いた水害リスクの影響分析 Peer-reviewed

岩橋佑, 平松敏史, 塚井誠人, 奥村誠

土木計画学研究・論文集　23　(2)　291-297　2006/09
Publisher: Japan Society of Civil Engineers
DOI： 10.2208/journalip.23.291 　

ISSN： 0913-4034

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This study aims to analyze how a flood risk affects land prices and land use. The economic activity being easily affected by flood would not locate at the spots with high flood risk, and then the land prices of high flood risk spot would be lower than the spots with low flood risk. In our study, a hedonic land-price model considering flood risk as an explanatory variable is applied for land price and land use in order to make economic evaluation of flood risk. The proposed hedonic land price model is a hybrid model that integrate conventional hedonic model estimated from limited observations, with land use model estimated from plenty observations.
国勢調査メッシュデータに基づく地区の将来人口構成予測手法 Peer-reviewed

奥村誠

都市計画論文集　40　(3)　193-198　2005/10
Publisher:
ISSN： 0916-0647
地方空港アクセスが広域的利用に与える影響 Peer-reviewed

村上直樹, 枦元淳平, 奥村誠, 塚井誠人

土木計画学研究・論文集　22　695-701　2005/10
Publisher: Japan Society of Civil Engineers
DOI： 10.2208/journalip.22.695 　

ISSN： 0913-4034

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In Japan, aviation service become main mode for the long-distance passenger trips. Many passengers now use flights from a little separated airport from origin area if higher frequency is available than from the nearest airport. In this research, the net passenger trip data (1995) is aggregated to clarify the actual use of airports in local areas. Next, logit models selecting route from (1) direct flight, (2) flight with longer surface access and (3) whole railway route are estimated for each trip purpose. It shows that frequency is an important path selection factor especially for business passengers. After clarifying the use of each airport in Chugoku Region, a simulation about the access improvement to the Hiroshima airport is performed, and the increase of the use from the wider surrounding city zones is analyzed.
Optimal fare arrangement and operations for demand responsive bus system in suburbs Peer-reviewed

Yoshimura M, Okumura M, Isozaki A

Journal of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies　6　457-466　2005/09
Publisher: Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies
DOI： 10.11175/easts.6.457 　

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Public transportation service is essentially based on the scale economy, which comes from that cost of one vehicle operation can be divided by many passengers sharing that service. Therefore, it becomes very difficult to provide service in the area with low density of demand. Recently, in order to provide transportation service in such low density areas, demand responsive bus(DRB) gathers attention and expectations. This paper discusses the market externalities in DRB system in suburb and show what kind of fare arrangement will be needed to realize the efficiency of the market. At first, we analyze the optimal division of resources between two kinds of buses; demand responsive service and direct trunk line service. Without any fare intervention, people try to overuse of DRB because they neglect the external effects by their calls. Then we try to estimate the amount of the externalities and give information for the additional price for DRB.
Retrospective assessment of inter-regional transportation service --network externality in LOS improvement -- Peer-reviewed

Tsukai M, Okumura M

Journal of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies　6　328-341　2005/09
Publisher: Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies
DOI： 10.11175/easts.6.328 　

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In Japan, rapid railway lines have been installed and expanded in order to connect regional prime cities to Tokyo, while airlines began to enhance their domestic service after the deregulation of airlines in 1986. In longer term, the influence of competition between railway and airline become more complex, because of network externalities of LOS improvement on networks. This study makes a retrospective assessment of inter-regional transportation services in ODs with their demand by using the Japanese longitudinal data in 1970, and 1995. The inter-regional net passenger traffic, average speed, fare per distance, and least frequency of the link in line-haul route are compared to find the characteristics of inter-regional LOS. Through the analyses, three kinds of inter-regional transportation markets were identified, and the characteristics of those were summarized. The network externality in LOS strongly appeared in railway service and demand. Such modal characteristics should be carefully considered in inter-regional network planning.
地理的特性を考慮した市町村行政コスト効率性の計測 Peer-reviewed

塚井誠人, 奥村誠

計画行政　28　(1)　117-122　2005/03
Publisher:
ISSN： 0387-2513
危険度認識のばらつきが右折直進事故危険性に与える影響 Peer-reviewed

奥村誠, 西村智明, 塚井誠人

交通工学研究発表会論文報告集　24　165-168　2004/10
Publisher:
ネットワーク型施設配置モデルによる廃棄物リサイクル施設計画の分析 Peer-reviewed

溝本剛志, 塚井誠人, 奥村誠

都市計画論文集　39　(3)　565-570　2004/10
Publisher: The City Planning Institute of Japan
DOI： 10.11361/cpij1.39.0.95.0 　

ISSN： 0913-1280

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This paper proposed a network-based facility location model which is applicable to the optimal location of waste recycling plants. In the model, total cost of waste disposal process, which is composed of transportation cost of waste, cost of recycling, cost of final disposal and location cost for the recycling plants. In the recycling process, average cost is assumed to go down along the processing volume, while average final disposal cost is considered to increase because of capacity shortage of plants. In order to solve the location problem with those nonlinear cost functions, a network-based model was proposed instead of ordinary optimal location models based on linear programming structure. The model was applied to a hypothetical location problem in Hiroshima Prefecture, and shown that availability of final disposal facilities governs the optimal location of recycling plants.
都市近郊デマンドバス運用に関する理論的考察 Peer-reviewed

礒崎晶光, 吉村充功, 奥村誠

土木計画学研究・論文集　21　(4)　847-852　2004/09
Publisher: Japan Society of Civil Engineers
DOI： 10.2208/journalip.21.847 　

ISSN： 0913-4034

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Recently, demand responsive bus attracts attention because of the merit of flexibility on operation. In order to clarify usefulness of demand responsive bus in suburbs, this study calculates the optimal operation minimizing the social cost, which consists of operation cost and user disutility. In this study, two rules of reservation for demand responsive bus are compared. One is on-spot reservation at bus stop just before using the bus, the other is previous reservation system. In numerical example, even though operation cost for the former rule became less, it gain larger social cost, became of large user cost due to large uncertainty of bus operation.
集計的な到着・出発時刻分布に基づく滞在時間モデルの推定方法 Peer-reviewed

塚井誠人, 井上英彦, 奥村誠

土木計画学研究・論文集　21　(2)　443-448　2004/09
Publisher: Japan Society of Civil Engineers
DOI： 10.2208/journalip.21.443 　

ISSN： 0913-4034

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In order to estimate a duration model describing the staying duration of trip makers, disaggregate data of arrival time and departure time for every sample are generally used. But such disaggregated survey needs a lot of labor and cost. This paper proposed two estimating methods for the duration model containing time varying factors, solely based on the aggregated distributions of arrivals and departures. One is a grid search method of parameters minimizing the summation of errors squared, the other is a maximum likelihood method for the traffic counts reproduced by Detroit method as to meet the aggregated observations. Those two methods were applied to the staying duration model which explains the staying days number of the excursionist who visits Shikoku from Honshu, using the traffic count data across the Honshu Shikoku Bridges, and the applicability of the proposed methods was shown. The estimated models clarified influence by holiday arrangements and the weather on the duration.
事業所・企業統計を用いた地方都市への支社配置の分析 Peer-reviewed

塚井誠人, 奥村誠

土木計画学研究・論文集　21　(1)　209-215　2004/09
Publisher: Japan Society of Civil Engineers
DOI： 10.2208/journalip.21.209 　

ISSN： 0913-4034

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This study compared the inter-city business network structure in 1991 and 2001, by using the establishment and enterprise census. In order to clarify the change in number of employees per customers, the relationship between employees on the inter-city business structure and estimated business network is analyzed and compared in 1991 and 2001. It was shown that the headquarters of nation-wide firms increased in Tokyo, but they decreased in the surrounding area. Further, the number of employees per customers in 2001 was fewer than that in 1991 at the identical branch function level. It means an employee in 2001 can supervise much number of customers than 1991.
総流動データによる都道府県間純流動の逆推定 Peer-reviewed

枦元淳平, 奥村誠, 塚井誠人

土木計画学研究・論文集　21　(1)　83-89　2004/09
Publisher: Japan Society of Civil Engineers
DOI： 10.2208/journalip.21.83 　

ISSN： 0913-4034

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This paper proposed a method to reproduce net passenger trips from gross traffic data Net passenger trip data give information of passenger's real origin and destination zones, but involve comparatively large sampling errors due to the detailed questionnaire survey with high cost. Gross traffic data have smaller sampling errors and it can be easily aggregated from ticket data including boarding information. The reproduction model consists of route choice model, gravity model based on relationship between net passenger trips and gross traffic data. The reproduction model was applied to the gross traffic data in 1995, and high reproductive performance wes shown. The reproduction model was concluded to be applicable to estimate lmknown net passenger trips. The net passenger trips in 1970 estimated by the reproduction model showed that long distance trips in 1970 were very few.
Composite hedonic land price model considering past price inertia Peer-reviewed

Haque S.M, M. Okumura

Proceedings of International Symposium on City Planning 2004　81-90　2004/09
交通・通信トラフィックデータに基づく業務ネットワークの経年比較 Peer-reviewed

塚井誠人, 奥村誠

土木学会論文集　(758 (IV-63))　23-34　2004/04
Publisher:
DOI： 10.2208/jscej.2004.758_23 　

ISSN： 0289-7806
Congestion charge and return schemes on modal choice between road and railroad Peer-reviewed

Mitsunori Yoshimura, Makoto Okumura

International Journal of Urban Sciences　8　(1)　61-73　2004

DOI： 10.1080/12265934.2004.9693546 　

ISSN： 2161-6779 1226-5934
交通データに基づく業務ネットワークと管理機能立地の比較 Peer-reviewed

塚井誠人, 奥村誠

都市計画論文集　38　(3)　781-786　2003/11
Publisher: The City Planning Institute of Japan
DOI： 10.11361/journalcpij.38.3.781 　

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Development of inter-city transportation network a_ects on business network structure of firms. This paper suggests a reverse analysis of Japanese business network structure from observed business trip patterns in 1990 and 1995. Firms are classified in to two groups; one is nation-wide firms which provide service to all Japan through hierarchical head-branches-customers network, and the other is local firms whose interactions can be captured by gravity model. Such proportions of several types of nation-wide and local firms are statistically estimated. The result shows that decrease of nation-wide firms with headquarter in Tokyo, and that decentralization are going on. At last, estimated change of branch o_ce functions are compared with the change of managing labors in each sub-region.
本四架橋交通量に基づく休日交通パターンの分類 Peer-reviewed

井上英彦, 塚井誠人, 奥村誠

交通工学研究発表会論文報告集　23　217-220　2003/11
Congestion Charge and Return Schemes on Modal Choice between Road and Railroad Peer-reviewed

M.Yoshimura, M.Okumura

Journal of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies　5　1845-1858　2003/10
Analysis of Inter-city Passenger’s Route Choice Behavior on Non-Shortest Routes Peer-reviewed

M.Tsukai, M.Okumura

Journal of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies　5　1463-1475　2003/10
危険度認識のドライバー間の不一致度と交通事故の発生率 Peer-reviewed

西村智明, ハックMシャーミム, 奥村誠, 塚井誠人

土木計画学研究・論文集　20　813-817　2003/09
Publisher: Japan Society of Civil Engineers
DOI： 10.2208/journalip.20.813 　

ISSN： 0913-4034

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Vehicle-to-vehicle type collisions, which make up 80% of traffic accidents, are considered to be the result of nonconsistent behaviors of conflicting divers due to their differences in risk recognition about any particular spot. With this research, the hypothesis that risk recognition difference has positive effect on the accident occurrence has been proven by constructing models of a traffic accident occurrence. In addition, from results of this research, the occurrence of traffic accident highly fits to Poisson distribution, and non-agreements of risk recognition for some reasons don't have positive effect on accident occurrence.
複数経路を考慮した鉄道・航空ネットワークの評価 Peer-reviewed

枦元淳平, 塚井誠人, 奥村誠

土木計画学研究・論文集　20　255-260　2003/09
Publisher: Japan Society of Civil Engineers
DOI： 10.2208/journalip.20.255 　

ISSN： 0913-4034

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In Japan, mom than one alternate paths exist for many intercity OD pairs. This paper proposed amethod to evaluate improvements of rail/air network, considering alternate paths. In order tobuild the evaluation method, route choise model was estimated using modal split data, and gravity model was estimated using aggregated utilities of available routes for the OD pair. Rail/air network improvement was evaluated by consumer's surplus based on two models above. The method was applied to the following two network improvement senarios: Speed increase of Tokaido-Shinkansen and increase in the number of flights between maijor cities. Annual benefits for each pair of inter-regional passenngers were caluclated.
緊急給水に対する事前防災対策の影響分析手法 Peer-reviewed

中島和樹, 奥村誠, 塚井誠人

土木計画学研究・論文集　20　331-336　2003/09
Publisher: Japan Society of Civil Engineers
DOI： 10.2208/journalip.20.331 　

ISSN： 0913-4034

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In this paper, we formulate the emergent water supply problem as a compound problem of a facility location problem to determine water supplying points, and a vehicle routing problem. The former is a problem minimizes the number of supplying water points with the condition of covering of all residence place within the limit distance for water carrying. The latter is a problem which makes minimizes the total vehicle distance to distnbute water to all water supplying points determined above the facility location problem. Using heuristic methods, a calculation procedure to propose efficient water supply work in an emergency is established. We propose a sensitivity analysis based on this procedure to investigate the influence of the destructions of water storages and bridges on the water supply work is calculated, and the effect of the pre-disaster earthquake-proof countermeasures for these facilities. The applicability of the method is illustrated by a case study in the Saijo area in Higashi-Hiroshima City.
カレンダー情報を利用した本四連絡橋日交通量の時系列分析 Peer-reviewed

井上英彦, 塚井誠人, 奥村誠

土木計画学研究・論文集　20　843-848　2003/09
Publisher: Japan Society of Civil Engineers
DOI： 10.2208/journalip.20.843 　

ISSN： 0913-4034

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The Honshu-Shikoku Bridges are expected as life bridge for daily trips and as sightseeing bridge for round tour trips. On the other hand, although the daily traffic on Honshu-Shikoku Bridges is automatically measured day by day, but that data have not been utilized effectively.<BR>This paper aims to analyze a change of traffics and the interaction of bridges by using the daily traffic data Holiday arrangement data and rainfall data are included in analysis. As a result, traffic are affected by the holiday arrangement, and there are round tour trip occurred between the east and west bridges. Furthermore these features are changing with the years.
自動車・鉄道の分担を考慮したフレックスタイム制度下の最適通勤・始業時刻分布の分析 Peer-reviewed

吉村充功, 奥村誠

土木計画学研究・論文集　20　903-912　2003/09
Publisher: Japan Society of Civil Engineers
DOI： 10.2208/journalip.20.903 　

ISSN： 0913-4034

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In this paper, we have proposed and solved theoretical model to analyze the optimal commuting and work start time distributions under flexible work hours (FWH) with peak-load pricing (PLP) considering modal split between road and railroad. In the results, we have shown that the optimal work start time distributions satisfied necessary condition are 9 patterns which are the combination of each 3 patterns for automobile and railroad commuters. From numerical examples, furthemore, we could have confirmed that the modal split is change, and evaluated economic effects of the FWH with the PLP.
Changes in Japan’s Inter-regional Business Linkage Structure Peer-reviewed

M.Tsukai, M.Okumura

The43rd Congress of the European Regional Science Association, University of Jyvaskyla, Finland　43　(287)　CDROM　2003/08
Distribution Network Configuration Considering Inventory Cost Peer-reviewed

M.Okumura, M.Tsukai

The43rd Congress of the European Regional Science Association, University of Jyvaskyla, Finland　43　(343)　CDROM　2003/08
Urban Land-Use Model to Assess the Effects of Building Cost Support Policy Peer-reviewed

Haque S.M, M. Okumura

Proceedings of International Symposium on City Planning　12　270-279　2003/08
Simulation of land-use changes for strategic urban management with a GIS based statistical model Peer-reviewed

Haque S.M, M. Okumura

The 8th International Conference on Computers in Urban Planning and Urban Management　8　(9B4)　CDROM　2003/05
Statistical test for inter-city information interaction Peer-reviewed

M.Tsukai, M.Okumura

Proceedings of the International Conference on Inter-city Transportation (ICIT)　2　624-631　2002/11
自動車・鉄道間の混雑料金賦課・還元スキームの影響分析 Peer-reviewed

吉村充功, 奥村誠

都市計画論文集　37　(37)　175-180　2002/11
Publisher: The City Planning Institute of Japan
DOI： 10.11361/cpij1.37.0.175.0 　

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Congestion charge policy is most effective one among transportation demand management policies. Recently, road pricing that is one of the congestion charge policies is examined to be introduced into heavy congestion roads in Tokyo. This policy has influence on modal split between road and railroad, and then the government can use the collected congestion charge for improving railroad service level. In this paper, we have proposed theoretical models to determine simultaneously home departure time and modal choice with / without congestion charge. And, we have analyzed influence of congestion charge and return schemes on modal choice between road and railroad. From results of numerical simulation, we have shown that scheme of return to other mode doesn't improve utility. Furthermore, scheme of pricing to railroad commuters is more effective.
観測地価と詳細地理情報に基づく土地利用モデル Peer-reviewed

奥村誠, シャーミムMハック

都市計画論文集　37　(37)　103-108　2002/11
Publisher: The City Planning Institute of Japan
DOI： 10.11361/cpij1.37.0.103.0 　

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In line with the private oriented economic vitarization, local government is expected to take more flexible land use leading measure such as district based taxzation and subsidy, adding to the present rigid land-use reguration measures. This paper aims to build a land-use model being able to estimate the effect of such monetary measures. Based on observed land price data, bid rent functions of several types of land-users in monetary term are estimated, those are embedded into a logit type random bid rent model. The proposed model, when estimated with geographical data for the 100m grids in Higashi-Hiroshima City, shows good reproductivity of land-use as well as land price. Simulation analysis using the model shows the influence of land-use taxation.
交通事故危険度認知モデルの東広島市への適用 Peer-reviewed

西村智明, 奥村誠, ハックMシャーミム, 塚井誠人

交通工学研究発表会論文報告集　22　29-32　2002/11
社会資本の生産性とスピルオーバー効果 Peer-reviewed

塚井誠人, 江尻良, 奥村誠, 小林潔司

土木学会論文集　716　(716(IV-57))　53-67　2002/10

DOI： 10.2208/jscej.2002.716_53 　
フレックスタイム制度下における最適ロードプライシング Peer-reviewed

吉村充功, 奥村誠, 松本寛史

土木計画学研究・論文集　19　(4)　823-830　2002/09

DOI： 10.2208/journalip.19.823 　
腐食鋼板表面形状モデル作成における空間的自己相関モデルの適用性 Peer-reviewed

藤井堅, 海田辰将, 平井勝志, 奥村誠

構造工学論文集　48　(48-A)　1031-1038　2002/03
避難勧告の信頼度と避難行動 Peer-reviewed

奥村誠, 塚井誠人, 下荒磯司

土木計画学研究・論文集　18　311-316　2001/11

DOI： 10.2208/journalip.18.311 　
本社支社配置の経年変化のモデル Peer-reviewed

塚井誠人, 奥村誠

都市計画論文集　36　(36)　349-354　2001/11
鉄道通勤における最適フレックスタイムパターンの研究 Peer-reviewed

吉村充功, 奥村誠

土木計画学研究・論文集　18　779-786　2001/11

DOI： 10.2208/journalip.18.779 　
地域間情報交流の経年的分析 Peer-reviewed

塚井誠人, 奥村誠

土木計画学研究・論文集　18　173-179　2001/11
Publisher: Japan Society of Civil Engineers
DOI： 10.2208/journalip.18.173 　

ISSN： 0913-4034

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We modified the inter-regional business interaction model proposed in our previous paper, which considers substitutability and complementarity between face to face communication and telecommunication, and applied the model to longitudinal inter-regional interaction data. In 1990's, the telecommunication cost was remarkably reduced to 1/2 to 1/5 levels, but the telephone traffics did not increase accordingly. We clarified that the effect oftransportation cost, inter-regional business administrative relation are stable on the inter-regional interaction in different time points. Centralities of both cities became insignificant for the interaction, and it may result the stable trend of the telephone traffics.
社会資本の生産性と経済成長：研究展望 Peer-reviewed

江尻良, 奥村誠, 小林潔司

土木学会論文集　(688(IV-53))　75-87　2001/10

DOI： 10.2208/jscej.2001.688_75 　
空間的自己相関を考慮した鋼板腐食形状のモデル化 Peer-reviewed

奥村誠, 藤井堅, 塚井誠人

土木学会論文集　672　(672(VI-50))　109-116　2001/03

DOI： 10.2208/jscej.2001.672_109 　
情報伝達の複雑性を考慮した通信と交通の情報交流量分担モデル Peer-reviewed

塚井誠人, 奥村誠

土木学会論文集　667　(667(IV-50))　113-121　2001/01
Publisher:
DOI： 10.2208/jscej.2001.113 　

ISSN： 0289-7806
Optimal commuting and work start time distribution under flexible work hours system on motor commuting Peer-reviewed

M Yoshimura, M Okumura

PROCEEDINGS OF THE EASTERN ASIA SOCIETY FOR TRANSPORTATION STUDIES, VOL 3, NO 2　3　(2)　455-469　2001
Network improvement and geographical advantage of freight center Peer-reviewed

M Tsukai, M Okumura

PROCEEDINGS OF THE EASTERN ASIA SOCIETY FOR TRANSPORTATION STUDIES, VOL 3, NO 2　3　(2)　527-541　2001
鉄道通勤における「スーパーフレックス」制度の経済評価 Peer-reviewed

吉村充功, 奥村誠

都市計画論文集　(35)　1075-1080　2000/11
コストに着目した交通調査の精度向上手法の評価 Peer-reviewed

奥村誠, 福住彰規

土木計画学研究・論文集　17　267-270　2000/09
Publisher: Japan Society of Civil Engineers
DOI： 10.2208/journalip.17.267 　

ISSN： 0913-4034

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Besides respondent incentive articles (RIA), there are many possible measures to increase response rate and improve accuracy in transport survey. This study proposes that performance of those measures can be evaluated based on the survey cost which satisfies given accuracy level. The proposed criteria can be applied for the technique which alter the response rate or accuracy unevenly for seleral sub-groups of the population. A case study of a shopping travel survey held in a shopping district in Hiroshima City practically illustrates the effectiveness of the RIAs, based on the proposed criteria.
ダイナミカルシステム論による鉄道時差出勤パターンの分析 Peer-reviewed

吉村充功, 奥村誠

土木計画学研究・論文集　17　879-884　2000/09
Publisher: Japan Society of Civil Engineers
DOI： 10.2208/journalip.17.879 　

ISSN： 0913-4034

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If firms have no incentive to change work start time, they don't use staggered work hours measures. Nagano, et al.(1998) assumed that each firms in the city can choose work schedule out of two possible points in time, and analyzed how many workers will start work earlier in the equilibrium. In this paper, we utilize the dynamical system theory, and analyzed the relationship between parameter values and equilibrium pattern in work start times. We observed equilibrium pattern and stability on bifurcation diagram.
都市内業務トリップにおける時間的集積の経済性 Peer-reviewed

吉村充功, 奥村誠, 塚井誠人

都市計画論文集　(34)　217-222　1999/11
都市群モデルによる大規模鉄道網整備便益の動学的分析 Peer-reviewed

奥村誠, トゥンチェル・メヒメット・アリ, 小林潔司

都市計画論文集　(34)　79-84　1999/11
代替性・補完性を考慮した業務交通と通信パターンの重力モデル Peer-reviewed

塚井誠人, 奥村誠

都市計画論文集　(34)　85-90　1999/11
平休日の生活時間評価構造に関する研究 Peer-reviewed

奥村誠, 塚井誠人

土木計画学研究・論文集　16　181-186　1999/09

DOI： 10.2208/journalip.16.181 　
道路整備が観光周遊行動に及ぼす影響の分析 Peer-reviewed

杉惠頼寧, 藤原章正, 森山昌幸, 奥村誠, 張峻屹

土木計画学研究・論文集　16　(16)　699-705　1999/09
Publisher: Japan Society of Civil Engineers
DOI： 10.2208/journalip.16.699 　

ISSN： 0913-4034

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This paper proposes a new approach analyzing changes in touring behavior by road improvement in the touring area. A hierarchical structural model consisting of route choice and multi-spot choice models is developed based on conventional discrete choice models. A nested PCL (Paired Combinatorial Logit) model is derived in order to relax IID error structure in each stage of the ordinal nested logit model. The Nested PCL models are estimated using SP data obtained in the context of route and multi-spot choices in Shimane Central area.It is confirmed that road improvement increases the travel demand in tourism by a series of simulation studies.
鉄道時差出勤の社会的便益と導入インセンティブに関する分析 Peer-reviewed

奥村誠, 小林潔司, 田中成興

応用地域学研究　4　(4)　63-75　1999/07
輸送費用の減少が都市群システムに及ぼす影響のシミュレーション分析 Peer-reviewed

奥村誠, 小林潔司, 山室良徳

土木学会論文集　604　(604(IV-41))　23-34　1998/10
Publisher:
DOI： 10.2208/jscej.1998.604_23 　

ISSN： 0289-7806
始業時刻の設定が鉄道通勤交通に及ぼす影響に関する研究 Peer-reviewed

奥村誠, 永野光三, 小林潔司

土木計画学研究・論文集　15　831-840　1998/09
Publisher: Japan Society of Civil Engineers
DOI： 10.2208/journalip.15.831 　

ISSN： 0913-4034

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In this paper, a partial equilibrium model is applied to show the departure time distribution of railway commuters whose working start times are specified on several points in time. Division of working start time decides the division of commuting service market, then determines the monopolizing power of railway company and the externality of commuters behavior. Numerical simulations show the effect of market division via staggered working time policy and flexible time policy, in term of total welfare criterion. Effective policy mix of staggered working time, other TSMs and TDMs are discussed.
大都市圏における鉄道交通の時差出勤の実現化方策 Peer-reviewed

永野光三, 奥村誠, 小林潔司

運輸と経済　58　(4)　44-52　1998/04
Publisher:
ISSN： 0287-8305
Sustainability and Time Use Patterns - the Possibility of Providing News about Personal Safety Peer-reviewed

M.Okumura, M.Nagano

Sustainability and Development, University of Karlstad　183-191　1998/02
企業行動から見た出社・退社時刻の要因分析 Peer-reviewed

奥村誠, 永野光三

都市計画論文集　(32)　79-84　1997/11
鉄道通勤交通における出発時間分布に関する理論的研究 Peer-reviewed

小林潔司, 奥村誠, 永野光三

土木計画学研究・論文集　14　895-906　1997/09
Publisher: Japan Society of Civil Engineers
DOI： 10.2208/journalip.14.895 　

ISSN： 0913-4034

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This paper formulates an optimal control problem to describe a partial equilibrium of railway commuting service market differenciated with departure time. A railway company monopolistically controls the train schedule, while commuters choose their departure time considering the trade-off between congestion rate and schedule cost.<BR>This paper shows that the equilibrium is not socially optimal, then proposes altenative control problems maximizing social welfare via TSM (supply side control) and TDM (demand side control). Theoretical upper limit of the effect of these policies are shown.
The growth of city systems with high-speed railway systems Peer-reviewed

Kiyoshi Kobayashi, Makoto Okumura

Annals of Regional Science　31　(1)　39-56　1997
Publisher: Springer Verlag
DOI： 10.1007/s001680050038 　

ISSN： 0570-1864
企業の生産活動を考慮した都市間業務旅客流動モデル Peer-reviewed

奥村誠, 端山裕章

応用地域学研究　2　(2)　169-178　1996/12
高速交通体系が都市システムの発展に及ぼす影響に関する研究 Peer-reviewed

小林潔司, 奥村誠

土木計画学研究・論文集　13　57-66　1996/08

DOI： 10.2208/journalip.13.57 　
小規模小売店の最適更新行動に関する研究 Peer-reviewed

奥村誠, 松村憲一

土木計画学研究・論文集　13　257-264　1996/08

DOI： 10.2208/journalip.13.257 　
Remoteness of Peripheral Region : Transportation Cost for Industry. Peer-reviewed

M.Okumura

Exploring Sustainability, Tottori University　213-222　1996/03
Demand of Trips and Telecommunication Informing Personal Safety-Rough Estimation Using Person Trip Survey- Peer-reviewed

M.Okumura, M.Nagano

Proceedings of International Conference on the Development of Urban Infrastructure in Hangzhou, China　86-93　1996
既存技術の活用を考慮した育成産業の選択方法 Peer-reviewed

奥村誠, 山本隆昭, 吉川和広

土木計画学研究・論文集　12　231-238　1995/08

DOI： 10.2208/journalip.12.231 　
The nature and evolution of knowledge networks in Japanese manufacturing Peer-reviewed

TR Lakshmanan, M Okumura

PAPERS IN REGIONAL SCIENCE　74　(1)　63-86　1995/01

ISSN： 1056-8190
Dynamic Behavior of Disequilibrium Retail Models-Catastrophe and Bifurcation- Peer-reviewed

M.Okumura, K.Yoshikawa

Knowledge, Technology and Regional Development, Tottori University　245-260　1994
地域構造が変動する都市圏の不均衡モデルによる分析 Peer-reviewed

奥村誠, 吉川和広, 園田稔康

土木学会論文集　1993　(476(IV-21))　37-46　1993/10
Publisher: Japan Society of Civil Engineers
DOI： 10.2208/jscej.1993.476_37 　

ISSN： 0289-7806

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The aim of this study is to develop a dynamic model which can explain regional structural changes. The concept of market disequilibrium is introduced to formulate ongoing changes. New location or withdrawing of industrial activities can be explained as a reaction to commodity market disequilibrium, while inhabitants, migration is captured as a reaction to labor market disequilibrium. Empirical study on Konan-Region in Shiga Prefecture is accomplished using the regional disequilibrium simulation model. Effects of infrastructure development alternatives, such as road networks, industrial parks and infrastructure for daily life, are estimated by simulation experiments.
Horizontal Linkages in Manufacturing Industries -New Concept of Technological Complex in Medium-sized City- Peer-reviewed

M.Okumura, K.Yoshikawa

Medium-Sized City - Research for Renewal, Univ.of Karlstad　99-116　1992/06
地域イベントと施設整備 Invited

奥村誠

土木計画学研究・論文集　9　15-27　1991/11
Publisher: Japan Society of Civil Engineers
DOI： 10.2208/journalip.9.15 　

ISSN： 0913-4034
イベント効果を考慮した地域整備投資に関する研究 Peer-reviewed

奥村誠, 秀島栄三, 吉川和広

土木計画学研究・論文集　8　273-280　1990/11
Publisher: Japan Society of Civil Engineers
DOI： 10.2208/journalip.8.273 　

ISSN： 0913-4034

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Nowadays, hallmark events come to be introduced in regional investment. Investment for infrastructure gives steady long-run but no instantaneous utility. Contrarily, hallmark events have much impulse, but it will soon dim out. The effect of hallmark event is determined by the quality and quantity of it, as well as the environmental infrastructure. Therefore nice arrangement of the infrastructure-investment and events is a key point for effective investment control. This paper aims to model the regional investment process with hallmark events and to obtain the optimal policy using the optimal control theory. Main conclusion is that monitoring user's respects for the regional infrastructure can give the timing of hallmark events, and that market share is decisive for optimal investment patterns.
空間相互作用をとりいれた地域モデルの推定法 Peer-reviewed

奥村誠, 吉川和広, 足立康史

土木計画学研究・論文集　7　115-122　1989/12
Publisher: Japan Society of Civil Engineers
DOI： 10.2208/journalip.7.115 　

ISSN： 0913-4034

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Spatial data are characterized by spatial interdependence and heterogeneity which give a variety of measurement problems. Heterogeneity can be covered by some econometrical techniques for model with non-spherical error term. Though spatial interdependence is considered as a "statistical noise" in the field of econometrics to date, how to model spatial interaction is the main subject in regional modeling. However, most of empirical works fails to take into account the interdependence effects in estimation or tests.<BR>In this paper, we consider a family of simultaneous spatial models which explicitly contain spatial interdependence. The most popular OLS estimator is neither unbiased nor consistent. We propose a new consistent and efficient estimator, that is named Two Stage Generalized Least Squares (2SGLS) Estimator. OLS bias, efficiency of 2SGLS and 2SLS estimator are numerically assessed. We conclude by discussing the applicability of 2SLS and 2SGLS estimator.
財政効果を考慮した地方開発投資の計量経済分析 Peer-reviewed

奥村誠, 小林潔司, 吉川和広

土木計画学研究・論文集　5　171-178　1987/11
Publisher: Japan Society of Civil Engineers
DOI： 10.2208/journalip.5.171 　

ISSN： 0913-4034

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This paper presents the concept of fiscal effects of public investment, which explains an employment effect in public sector and fiscal flexibility, in the non-metropolitan area that consists of well-developed part and under-developed part. We point out that we must analyze two trade-off problems; one is regional equities versus total development of prefecture; the other is developments effects versus fiscal flexibility, which gives main perspective for the public debt management. For this analysis, an econometric model having hierarchical structure between prefectural government and sub-areas is presented. By case study in Shiga prefecture, the validity of the model is evidenced and some comments about investment allocation and public debt management are proposed.
Multiactor Decision Analysis for Regional Investment Allocation Peer-reviewed

K.Kobayashi, T.Tanino, A.P.Wierzbicki, M.Okumura

MCDM Conference in Kyoto, 1986,""Toward Interactive and Intelligent Decision Support Systems""　2　422-431　1987/08

Show all ︎Show first 5

Misc. 49

Decision-making Support Systems Using Historical Disaster Information

倉恒子, 森口周二, MAS Erick, 越村俊一, 奥村誠, 重松直子, 藤野昭典, 清水仁, 小阪尚子, 久田正樹

情報科学技術フォーラム講演論文集　22nd　2023
ONLINE SURVEY ON USE OF VIDEOCONFERENCING AND FACE-TO-FACE MEETING

塚井誠人, 奥村誠, 円山琢也

土木計画学研究・講演集(CD-ROM)　68　2023
先の見えない時代の行政計画のあり方~仙台市総合計画策定の経験から〜

奥村誠

東北計画行政研究　(6)　21-26　2021/04
東日本大震災からの復興10年の成果と課題 Invited

奥村誠

商工ジャーナル　47　(3)　14-17　2021/03
(巻頭言）「隣災」の発想で，メリハリのある備えを Invited

奥村誠

月刊建設　65　(3)　4-5　2021/03
(座談会)土木の復興今後に生かす東日本大震災復興の反省点−構想・計画・実施の各局面−

奥村誠, 岸井隆幸, 中井検裕, 柄谷由香, 佃遙, 高田洋人

土木学会誌　106　(3)　22-27　2021/03
CHANGE IN JAPANESE TSUNAMI DISASTER PREVENTION MEASURES SINCE MEIJI-ERA

西脇千瀬, 奥村誠, 平野勝也

土木計画学研究・講演集(CD-ROM)　64　2021
Survey on face-to-face or web-based business meetings before / after COVID-19

塚井誠人, 円山琢也, 田中優大, 奥村誠

土木計画学研究・講演集(CD-ROM)　64　2021
都市間交通の時間短縮技術とその効果 Invited

奥村誠

土木技術　73　(4)　9-14　2018/04
東北という地域概念と土木の役割 Invited

奥村誠

土木学会誌　101　(9)　8-11　2016/09
(巻頭言）低密度地域の交通技術を東北で生み出し世界へ展開しよう Invited

奥村誠

交通工学　51　(3)　1-2　2016/07
Publisher: 交通工学研究会
1C33 Temporal and Spatial Differences of Leisure Travel Frequency Distribution in Japan(Traffic Planning)

YAMAGUCHI Hiromichi, OKUMURA Makoto

Proceedings of International Symposium on Seed-up and Service Technology for Railway and Maglev Systems : STECH　2015　"1C33-1"-"1C33-12"　2015/11/09
Publisher: The Japan Society of Mechanical Engineers

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How has the frequency distribution of domestic leisure travel changed in the past few decades? Where has change occurred? What effects has the new HSR (High Speed Railway) service had on of travel generation patterns? In order to answer these questions, we analyzed temporal changes in the travel frequency distribution of overnight and one-day leisure travel by the Japanese from 1991 until 2011. The results of the temporal analyses indicated that the average frequency of overnight travel decreased over 20 years, the zero frequency ratio increased, and the inequality of travel frequency among individuals also expanded. Moreover, the authors propose a travel frequency model and explain spatiotemporal change in terms of three effects (age, birth cohort, and period in each prefecture). The analyses using the model indicated that the travel frequency distribution was very different among prefectures. We then compared the spatiotemporal change of the frequency distribution with HSR construction. As a result, we did not observe any positive effects of the new HSR services on travel frequency. This indicates that HSR service may affect only destination choice or mode choice, not on travel generation patterns of leisure travel.
(インタビュー)人口減少時代における地域公共交通のあり方

奥村誠, 小磯修二

開発こうほう　15　(3)　34-39　2015/03/01
ソーシャルセンシングによる被災地の被害状況と支援ニーズの把握の可能性―東日本大震災の発生前後に発信されたTwitterの分析―

佐藤翔輔, 花岡和聖, 奥村誠, 越村俊一

第17回日本災害情報学会予稿集　2015
(座談会)交流をひろげ、多様性を楽しむ社会を

土井勉, 奥村誠, 佐々木邦明, 榊原弘之

土木学会誌　99　(11)　34-39　2014/11/01
Publisher: 土木学会
ISSN： 0021-468X
都市間旅客ネットワークのシェイプアップ

奥村誠

運輸と経済　74　(2)　104-107　2014/02
Publisher: 運輸調査局
ISSN： 0287-8305
観光旅行回数分布の年齢‐世代間分析

山口裕通, 奥村誠

鉄道技術連合シンポジウム講演論文集(CD-ROM)　21st　ROMBUNNO.S6-1-4　2014
「都市仙台」の存在意義と期待－統計データが語りかけること

奥村誠

新都市　67　(7)　65-71　2013/07
Publisher: 都市計画協会
ISSN： 0037-3761
人口減少・高齢化地域における交通システム－東日本大震災被災地を念頭に－

奥村誠, 河野達仁

日本不動産学会誌　26　(4)　39-46　2013/03/25
Publisher: Japan Association for Real Estate Sciences
DOI： 10.5736/jares.26.4_39 　

ISSN： 0911-3576
旅客の時間価値異質性を考慮した最適マルチモーダルネットワークの形状

山口裕通, 奥村誠, HUSEYIN Tirtom

鉄道技術連合シンポジウム講演論文集(CD-ROM)　20th　ROMBUNNO.S6-6　2013
1616 A Study of Railway Fare Policy considering Heterogenenous LOS Elasticity

YAMAGUCHI Hiromichi, OKUMURA Makoto, TIRTOM Huseyin

Jointed railway technology symposium　2012　(19)　441-444　2012/12/04
Publisher: The Japan Society of Mechanical Engineers

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It is important for a local city to maintain vitality of economic activities even in the population shrinkage, access conditions to other cities should be kept or improved. Considering the fiscal budget constraints, subsidiary countermeasure should be concentrated on smaller number of target links. This paper suggests a selection of target OD pairs based on the LOS elasticity, which are considered to be different for each OD pair. Generalized linear model (GLM) approach is utilized to develop the estimation method for the heterogeneous LOS elasticity.
1706 Utilizing highway bus service as a feeder collector for intercity high speed rail

OKUMURA Makoto, TIRTOM Huseyin, YAMAGUCHI Hiromichi

Jointed railway technology symposium　2012　(19)　429-430　2012/12/04
Publisher: The Japan Society of Mechanical Engineers

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It is generally said that Highway bus (HWB) and High Speed Rail (HSR) are competitive intercity transport measures. But, HWB and HSR can have complementary relationships because they have different service properties each other. In many medium and small sized cities unable to construct HSR, feeder HWB may improve convenience for intercity passengers, without relying on energy consuming airline service. In this paper, some examples of feeder HWB lines which benefit both on HSR and HWB are illustrated.
全国幹線旅客純流動調査の意義と課題

奥村誠

運輸と経済　72　(6)　21-30　2012/06
Publisher: 運輸調査局
ISSN： 0287-8305
東北地方開発の歴史

奥村誠

都市計画　61　(2)　5-10　2012/04/25
Publisher: 日本都市計画学会
ISSN： 0495-9280
東日本大震災を踏まえた道路計画と設計の課題

奥村誠

土木学会誌　96　(11)　26-29　2011/11/01
交通網の連結性を再チェックすべき

奥村誠

運輸と経済　71　(8)　72-74　2011/08
Publisher: 運輸調査局
ISSN： 0287-8305
排出量変動を考慮した施設配置モデルによる生産・リサイクル施設配置の分析

大窪和明, 奥村誠

土木計画学研究・論文集　27　(1)　193-200　2010
高速道路点検による待ち時間を考慮した耐震化計画モデル

Kazuhiro SASAKI, Makoto OKUMURA, Kazuaki OKUBO

Infrastructure Planning Review　27　(2)　417-424　2010
3504 Analysis of Straw Effect caused by New Shinkansen Lines using Branch Office Location Model

TAKADA Naoki, OKUMURA Makoto, TSUKAI Makoto

Jointed railway technology symposium　2009　(16)　453-456　2009/12/02
Publisher: The Japan Society of Mechanical Engineers

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In this paper, we focus on the behavior of a firm that achieves efficient branch office location, in order to analyze straw effect caused by new shinkansen lines. We developed a branch office location model and confirmed that it is usable to analyze straw effect. At first, we detected the straw effects in Akita and Omagari regions after the opening of the Akita Shinkansen in 1997, from the statistical data. Secondly, we confirmed that the branch office location model provided a similar result. At last, we analyzed the straw effect of Hokkaido Shinkansen using this model. As a result, we show that Hokkaido Shinkansen causes straw effect in Hakodate when the whole line up to Sapporo opens.
東北らしさを生かす地域づくりと交通戦略

奥村誠

運輸と経済　67　(2)　16-24　2009/02
(座談会)地域づくりの実践から見えてきた「新たな公」

奥村誠, 関満博, 政所利子, 泉田十太郎, 田中淳

土木学会誌　93　(9)　20-25　2008/09/01

ISSN： 0021-468X
都市計画研究の現状と展望－土地利用

奥村誠

都市計画　55　(5)　69-78　2006/10
交通施設整備計画の難しさ

奥村誠

季刊中国総研　8(2)　(27)　9-16　2004/06
Publisher: 中国地方総合研究センタ-
ISSN： 1343-3482
Inter-city passenger's multi-modal route use

HAZEMOTO Junpei, OKUMURA Makoto, TSUKAI Makoto, MURAKAMI Naoki

Jointed railway technology symposium　2003　(10)　429-430　2003/12/08
Publisher: The Japan Society of Mechanical Engineers

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Conventionally, inter-city railways have been considered to compete with airlines. In near future, with decrease of population in Japan, railway service must face with more severe competitions in long distance market, as total number of inter-city passenger would decrease. In such a situation, it is important for Railway Company to attract middle-distance demand of access for airports by improving LOSs to airports. This paper analyzes the multi-modal route use of inter-city passengers, based on the Net passenger Traffic Survey (1995) and clarifies the effect of improvement in longer access railway to airport, by using route choice model. As a case study, the effect of Kyushu Shinkansen on Fukuoka Airport access is analyzed.
ＯＲのはさみでフレックス通勤問題を切る

吉村充功, 奥村誠

オペレーションズ・リサーチ　48　(11)　821-826　2003/11/01
Publisher: 公益社団法人日本オペレーションズ・リサーチ学会
ISSN： 0030-3674

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通勤混雑解消の切り札として, 時差出勤やフレックスタイムなどのTDM施策への期待が高いものの, 実際には期待通りに導入が進んでいない. この問題を分析する上では, 時間的集積の経済性のために, ピーク時に通勤する方が有利な通勤者が多いことを認め, それを損なわないような形で混雑がもたらす負の外部効果を小さくする方法を探る必要がある. 本稿では, フレックスタイム制度を, 正と負の外部性が同時に存在する社会システムを制御する方策として位置づけることにより, 最適制御というOR手法を用いて, 施策の効果を見通しよく分析することができることを示す.
都市近郊におけるデマンドバスの最適運用に関する分析(輸送・交通(3))

吉村充功, 奥村誠, 磯崎晶光

日本オペレーションズ・リサーチ学会秋季研究発表会アブストラクト集　2003　42-43　2003/09/10
Publisher: 公益社団法人日本オペレーションズ・リサーチ学会
産業振興から技術振興へ－生物の世界に学ぶ－

奥村誠

中国活性化センター会報　(56)　3-5　2003/01
ＩＴ時代の地方都市

塚井誠人, 奥村誠

運輸と経済　62　(6)　27-35　2002/06
Publisher: 運輸調査局
ISSN： 0287-8305
ブラジル・アマゾン流域の水運

奥村誠

運輸政策研究　4　(4)　40-43　2002/04
Publisher: 運輸政策研究機構
ISSN： 1344-3348
ある研究者達の書簡交換-ブラジルの世界遺産を守るＴＤＭの可能性-

奥村誠, 羽藤英二

交通工学　37　(2)　66-70　2002/03
Publisher: 交通工学研究会
ISSN： 0454-4595
［座談会」ＩＴの発展と交通，都市

今川拓郎, 大西隆, 奥村誠, 太田恒武

運輸と経済　61　(11)　5-13　2001/11
Publisher: 運輸調査局
ISSN： 0287-8305
鉄道通勤における変形労働時間制度の経済評価

吉村充功, 奥村誠

土木学会年次学術講演会講演概要集第4部　55th　98-99　2000/08/31
情報交通手段の発達と都市間交通

奥村誠

運輸と経済　60　(5)　31-37　2000/05
Publisher: 運輸調査局
ISSN： 0287-8305
輸送費用の減少が都市群システムに及ぼす影響のシミュレーション分析

奥村誠, 小林潔司, 山室良徳

中央復建C.技報　(30)　78-90　2000/01
Publisher: 中央復建コンサルタンツ
ISSN： 1346-3942
広島のまちづくりへの期待（京都とボストンからの示唆）

奥村誠

水と緑　9　2-4　1999/01
Publisher: 広島市建設局
Theoretical research on the incentive for corporations to introduce time-lag commuting system.

吉村充功, 奥村誠, 永野光三

土木学会中国支部研究発表会発表概要集　50th　503-504　1998/06
連続公共空間整備に対する社会的合意

奥村誠

運輸と経済　57　(8)　18-19　1997
「一つ上」の地域づくりと道路の役割

奥村誠

道路建設　(593)　26-27　1997
地域間交流と人間関係

奥村誠

交通工学　31　(6)　3-7　1996/06
Publisher: 交通工学研究会

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Books and Other Publications 25

東日本大震災からのスタート : 災害を考える51のアプローチ

東北大学災害科学国際研究所

東北大学出版会　2021/03

ISBN: 9784861633577
東日本大震災合同調査報告・土木編７社会経済的影響の分析

奥村誠

公益社団法人土木学会　2019/03
Routledge Handbook of Transport in Asia

OKUMURA Makoto, KIM Jinyoung

Routledge　2018/07

ISBN: 9781138826014

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(Chapter 8) Transportation in Disasters: Lessons Learned from GEJE 2011
Transportation, Knowledge and Space in Urban and Regional Economics

M.Okumura, H.Yamaguchi

Edward Elgar Publishing　2018/04

ISBN: 9781785366055

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Personal Purpose Inter-Regional Travels: An Integrator of Historical Inter-Regional Migrations
Global Warming and Human-Nature Dimension in Northern Eurasia

T.Sakai, H.Takakura, M.Okumura, S.Hatta, Y.Yoshikawa, T.Hiyama, Y.Yamaguchi

Springer Publishing　2017/08

ISBN: 9789811046476
Hanbook of Infrastructure Planning and Management

JSCE Editorial, Comittee of, Handbook of Infrastructure Planning, Management

CORONA Publishing co. ltd.　2017/03/31

ISBN: 9784339052527
Report on the Great East Japan Earthquake Disaster, Compilation

Joint Editorial Committee for, the Report on the Great East Japan Earthquake Disaster

一般社団法人日本建築学会　2016/12/15

ISBN: 9784818920484
シベリア：温暖化する極北の水環境と社会

奥村誠, 檜山哲哉, 藤原潤子編

京都大学出版会　2015/03/30

ISBN: 9784876983155
Infrastructure Planning and Management

Makoto Okumura

Corona Publishing co. ltd.　2014/01/06

ISBN: 9784339056341
Suspended Transportation and Isolated Region

OKUMURA Makoto, FUJIWARA Junko, UEDA Kyoko, KAMIYA Daisuke

Tohoku University Press　2013/10

ISBN: 9784861632334
Analyzing the Great East Japan Earthquake Disaster, I. Mechanism of the Earthquake and Tsunami, and those outcomes

HIRAKAWA Arata, IMAMURA Fumihiko International Research Institute of, Disaster Science, Tohoku University

Akashi Shoten　2013/06/12

ISBN: 9784750338231
極寒のシベリアに生きる－トナカイと氷と先住民

高倉浩樹編著

新泉社　2012/04

ISBN: 9784787711120
The Management and Measurement of Infrastructure

Makoto Tsukai, Ryo Ejiri, Kiyoshi Kobayashi, Makoto Okumura

Edward Elgar Publishing　2007/11
Civil Enginnering 新たな国づくりに求められる若い感性

東北大学土木工

技報堂出版　2007/03/25
Structural Change in Transportation and Communications in the Knowledge Society

Makoto Okumura, Makoto Tsukai

Edward Elgar Publishing　2006/12
これからの都市・地域政策－「実験型都市」が未来を創る-

小林潔司, 朝倉康夫, 山崎朗編著

中央経済社　2005/03
The Economics of Disappearing Distance: In Honour of T.R.Lakshmanan,Gentleman and Scholar

M.Okumura, K.Kobayashi

Ashgate　2003/06
新領域土木工学ハンドブック

池田駿介, 林良嗣, 嘉門雅史, 磯部雅彦, 川島一彦

朝倉書店　2003/03
MPECにもとづく交通・地域政策分析

MPEC研究会, 鈴木崇児, 宮城俊彦, 早崎俊和, 赤松隆, 吉村充功, 奥村誠, 武藤慎一, 上田孝行, 高木朗義

勁草書房　2003/03
Regional Policies and Comparative Advantage

K.Kobayashi, M.Okumura, M.A.Tuncer

Edward Elgar　2002/10
社会公共政策への提言-関西から全国へ問いかける-

社会公共政, 三菱総合研究所

日本工業新聞社　2000/05
知識社会と都市の発展

小林潔司, 文世一, 奥村誠, 渡辺晴彦

森北出版　1999/04
21世紀の都市と計画パラダイム

吉川和広, 小林潔司, 岡田憲夫, 萩原良巳, 木俣昇, 山本幸司

丸善　1995/07
Patterns of a Network Economy

Borje Johansson, Charlie Karlsson, Lars Westin

Springer-Verlag　1994/03
The Cosmo-Creative Society

A.E.Andersson, D.F.Batten, K.Kobayashi, K.Yoshikawa

Springer-Verlag　1993

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Presentations 4

低密度を生かす交通の可能性 International-presentation

日独シンポジウム～人口減少下における地域社会の再生～　2013/11/01
Vulnerability of Infrastructure based on Physical Characteristics of Ice International-presentation

2nd International Conference "Global Warming and the Human-Nature Dimension in Siberia: Social Adaptation to the Changes of the Terrestrial Ecosystem, with an Emphasis on Water Environments”　2013/10/08
Sendai, the Capital of the Tohoku Region International-presentation

International Symposium on City Planning 2013　2013/08/23
自然災害に対応する計画運休の意義と課題：利用者の理解に向けて（基調講演） Invited

奥村誠

第70回運輸政策セミナー　2021/04/08

Research Projects 38

Optimal Automobile Evaluation from Tsunami Competitive

2013/04 - Present
Supportology of Affected Area by Large-scale Disaster Competitive

System: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research

2012/04 - Present
Planning model for inter-city transport network Competitive

System: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research

2009/04 - Present
Research and analysis methods for local public transportation design supported by residents and visitors

Offer Organization: Japan Society for the Promotion of Science

System: Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research

Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)

Institution: Hiroshima University

2024/04/01 - 2028/03/31
Mathematical Optimization Approach for Resilient Nationwide Transportation Network Planning

Offer Organization: Japan Society for the Promotion of Science

System: Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research

Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A)

Institution: Tohoku University

2022/04/01 - 2027/03/31
A "new normal" survey style of inter-regional passenger trip under COVID-19 society

Offer Organization: Japan Society for the Promotion of Science

System: Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research

Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)

Institution: Hiroshima University

2021/04/01 - 2024/03/31
携帯電話位置情報の時系列変動分解に基づく災害レジリエンスの観測・評価手法の開拓

山口裕通, 奥村誠, 塩崎由人, 水谷大二郎, 中山晶一朗

Offer Organization: 日本学術振興会

System: 科学研究費助成事業

Category: 基盤研究(B)

Institution: 金沢大学

2020/04/01 - 2024/03/31

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2020年度＋繰り越し分の2021年度においては，当初の計画通りに以下の研究を遂行した：・近距離行動の異常（災害レジリエンス）を観測・検知するモデルを開発・既往研究のレビューを実施し，災害レジリエンスの概念整理を行った・ 2014-2020年までの災害データを購入して，部分的な回復過程の解析をスタートしたただし，新型コロナウイルス感染症の影響により，東京オリンピック等の解析を予定していた事象が2020年のデータのみでは分析できなくなった．さらに，新型コロナウイルスで観測される行動の回復過程は，本研究で開発するモデルを適用して得られる情報として，社会的ニーズも高いものと判断して交付申請の時点で本研究の一環として実施することを決定した．しかし，当初の想定より短期間では行動変化が完結せずに，回復過程の解析にはより長期のデータ入手が必要となった．そのため，研究費の繰り越しをおこない2021年度を含むデータで分析を行った．その結果，概念整理に相当するパートと災害時の移動行動変化を解析した論文を公開するとともに，行動変化を検出するために必要な複数の時系列モデルについて基本モデルの開発をおおむね完了した．このモデルでは，混合ガウスモデルと時系列モデルを組み合わせたものであり，連休等を扱う時系列モデルにさらなる改良が必要であるものの，入力した移動行動の時系列データから災害等の「異常変動」を自動的に抽出するものであり，回復過程の全体を自動的に抽出することができる．モデルの開発成果については複数の学会発表を行っており，2022年度の論文化を目指す．
動的需要制御によるインフラマネジメントの高度化：劣化制御という新時代を目指して

水谷大二郎, 奥村誠, 山口裕通

Offer Organization: 日本学術振興会

System: 科学研究費助成事業

Category: 基盤研究(B)

Institution: 東北大学

2020/04/01 - 2024/03/31

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本研究課題では，インフラ群に対するネットワークレベルの維持管理施策最適化問題において，需要制御効果がどの程度存在するのかを体系的に整理することを最終目標としている．これまでの研究により，小規模なインフラネットワークにおいて，動的需要制御効果を検証し，具体的なインフラアセットマネジメント問題（インフラ最適廃棄問題）において，その効果を定量化した．本年度は，これらの研究成果を大規模ネットワークに展開することを予定し，検証を開始したが，その際に生じる組合せ爆発問題により，大規模ネットワークへの展開が容易ではないことが確認された．そのため，次年度実施予定の大規模ネットワークにおける動的需要制御効果の検証に繋げるべく，組合せ爆発問題の解消を具体的な研究テーマとして設定し，複数の方法論を提案した．また，本研究課題実施により副次的に生じた種々のインフラアセットマネジメント問題についても，それを解決するような方法論を提案した．
A Statistical Apploach to Stock Effects of Inter-regional Transport Network on the basis of Socio-economic Big Data

Tsukai Makoto

Offer Organization: Japan Society for the Promotion of Science

System: Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research

Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)

Institution: Hiroshima University

2018/04/01 - 2021/03/31

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In order to clarify the effect of road infrastructure on gross regional product(GRP), this study developed a methodology for ex-post clarification of the productivity effect of road access using a statistical causal discovery method, and verified it using real data. For the former, we found that there is a stable range of regression variation in the estimation model. For the latter, accessibility by road was found to have a significant effect on regional GDP only when road distances between municipalities and prefectural capitals were used. The results also indicate that there is heterogeneity in the productivity effects of road accessibility across regions. The results indicate that there is an effective combination of regions that can be linked by road accessibility.
Statistics of medical records in Great East Japan Earthquake and system dynamics simulation for efficient disaster medical response.

Shinichi Egawa

Offer Organization: Japan Society for the Promotion of Science

System: Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research

Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A)

Institution: Tohoku University

2017/04/01 - 2021/03/31

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Anonymous database was created for the disaster medical records in evacuation centers after the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake in Minamisanriku, Kesennuma, and Ishinomaki areas with ethical approval for human medical research to analyze the medical needs after disaster. More aged and female patients were treated than background population. In Minamisanriku, where all medical facilities were lost, 60% equivalent of population required medical care, while Kesennuma and Ishinomaki had 10%. The number of first visit peaked at 1-2 weeks after onset and gradually decreased in two to three months. Non-communicable diseases such as hypertension were 60% of all diagnoses, followed by infectious diseases especially in respiratory system (20%), mental health issues including sleep disturbance (6%), minor injuries (4%) and maternal and child health issues (0.2%). This research clarified the necessary preparedness for the medical, welfare and care needs based on the actual medical records.
Enhancing the local disaster prevention through inclusive location of "hatred facilities"

Okumura Makoto

Offer Organization: Japan Society for the Promotion of Science

System: Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research

Category: Grant-in-Aid for Challenging Research (Exploratory)

Institution: Tohoku University

2017/06/30 - 2020/03/31

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Even after the Hiroshima earth-slide disaster of 1999, many welfare facilities had been located in disaster prone area remote from existing villages. This study thought that if we let the welfare facilities which had been regarded as "hatred facilities" inclusively locate in an existing village, steady buildings safe from floods and the permanent residence of the staff with the knowledge of health and welfare may enhance the local disaster prevention of the neighborhood. We quantified the evacuation function of these local facilities by an optimization model of evacuation transportation. Furthermore, we noticed importance to take the maintenance of the disaster-response function in the long-term update and abolish plan of public facilities not only welfare facilities but also other kind of local facilities like public schools. We proposed a MILP model to analyze the relation between the evacuation and education of schools and apply the model to one example municipality.
Last Mile Distribution in Humanitarian Logistics through Advanced Technology

Hanaoka Shinya

Offer Organization: Japan Society for the Promotion of Science

System: Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research

Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)

Institution: Tokyo Institute of Technology

2017/04/01 - 2020/03/31

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This research developed a simulation model assuming the introduction of the Kanban method as a pull-type goods transportation for the last mile distribution of emergency relief goods on the uncertain demand information. In a case study of Kumamoto earthquake, as a result of the influence of the timing of switching from the push type to the pull type, the earliest shift to the pull type reduces the number of transport vehicles and the average inventory of goods, and eliminates the waiting time for transport vehicles at the collection point.In addition, the waiting time for transportation vehicles at the collection point and the time required for a single transportation are shorter when the secondary collection point is provided, however there exists evacuation centers where the time of shortage of relief supplies becomes longer.
Development of inter-regional trip survey in data-fusion style using home-based web survey

TSUKAI MAKOTO

Offer Organization: Japan Society for the Promotion of Science

System: Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research

Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)

Institution: Hiroshima University

2015/04/01 - 2018/03/31

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In this study, we developed a data fusion type survey method by integrating multiple databases utilizing home based web survey. Specifically, we examined seasonal fluctuation by integration with existing net flow survey, and demand estimation by integration with GPS big data of mobile phone. As a result of the analysis, it was somewhat difficult to explain the differences in the OD table by adjusting the individual attributes, especially for the railroad samples. In particular, consideration must be given to the frequency of trip occurrence by each origin. Furthermore, when cellular phone location information is used for traffic demand survey as an alternative method to existing surveys, it is necessary to acquire data over a period of several days or more to ensure the stability of the estimation result.
Enhancing Post-disaster Recovery by Fusion of Sensing and Simulation

Koshimura Shunichi, WATANABE Manabu, MAS Erick

Offer Organization: Japan Society for the Promotion of Science

System: Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research

Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A)

Institution: Tohoku University

2013/04/01 - 2017/03/31

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Fusion of high-performance computing and geo-informatics defeats the problem of understanding whole picture of the affected areas. In the present study, we proposed a research perspective in developing a method to search and detect the impact of tsunami disaster by integrating real-time numerical modeling, remote sensing, natural language processing and GIS technologies. The method was verified through a series of case studies of tsunami inundation simulation, structural damage estimation, and web-news' text data analysis to to grasp the sequence of a disaster situation.
Sustainable intercity transportation network planning under decreasing trend of population

Okumura Makoto

Offer Organization: Japan Society for the Promotion of Science

System: Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research

Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)

Institution: Tohoku University

2013/04/01 - 2017/03/31

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In Japan inter-city travel demand tends to reduce, then, only a few transportation service can sustain by gathering enough number of passengers in near future. In many OD pairs, passengers must find a longer route using the few sustained transport services, sometimes in different modes. In order to provide usable routes to passengers of many OD pairs, we must investigate efficient network structure and corresponding traffic flows. This project includes (1) destination and modal choice behavior analysis using GNL model permitting heterogeneous structure of elasticity among, (2) travel frequency distribution analysis considering age, generation and regional differences, which enable to assess the effect of service level changes, (3) optimal network structures for different performance criteria, and (4) proposal of optimal network planning model with endogenized demand.
Usage of large scale positioning data for disaster area support

OKUMURA Makoto, OKUBO Kazuaki

Offer Organization: Japan Society for the Promotion of Science

System: Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research

Category: Grant-in-Aid for Challenging Exploratory Research

Institution: Tohoku University

2012/04/01 - 2015/03/31

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When a city is hit by a huge disaster, activities and functions of the city necessary for people are lost and damaged. Total loss of the disaster is not only determined by the direct damage but also by recovering speed. The aim of this analysis is to extract spatio-temporal patterns in a city during a disaster recovery process based on aggregated positioning data of mobile phones. In this analysis, we classified activities and functions decreased through spatial patterns of population distribution during a disaster recovery process through a factor analysis, and confirmed difference in recovering speed. Moreover, we suggested that each spatial pattern is related to the spatial pattern in normal time.
Effect analysis on Arctic indigenous societies from the global warming with the interdisciplinary approach to the micro-environment history

TAKAKURA Hiroki, OKUMURA Makoto, WATANABE Manabu, KUBOTA Ryo, YAMAGUCHI Mikako

Offer Organization: Japan Society for the Promotion of Science

System: Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research

Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)

Institution: Tohoku University

2010/04/01 - 2014/03/31

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In the Arctic where a high index of the global warming was seen in in comparison with a middle-low degree zone, the influence of the climate change to the indigenous socio-cultural system was analyzed based on the information of the recent environment history. From the case study of the inland river basin (Lena River), the high humidity is sensed in the region which affected the frequency and larger scale of spring ice-melted floods, snow-melted floods, and summer rain floods increased. The latter two floods brought a crisis for local live stock farming occupation which only had formed as an adaptation to the spring ice-melted flood. On the other hand, from the case study of coastal region (the Alaska coast) which is sensed as a trend of draught the indigenous communities does not intensively use the low land and the flood plain, which resulted no serious damage occurred. The focus on the micro-environment is the clue for the method of the climate change and global society.
Methodological study on inter-city transportation analysis for nation-wide transportation management

OKUMURA Makoto, TSUKAI Makoto, KANEKO Yuichiro, HIBINO Naohiko, OKUBO Kazuaki

Offer Organization: Japan Society for the Promotion of Science

System: Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research

Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)

Institution: Tohoku University

2009 - 2012

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This research project summarized the survey and behavior analysis methodologies, considering important characteristics of inter-city passenger transportation, such as, scarce trip generation, imperfect user knowledge, complement or competitive relations on network. We proposed a revision method on biased sample data, a data fusion method using different data sources. Hierarchical structure of business firms were also analyzed in order to understand negative effect of transportation improvement on local economy, sometimes called as “straw absorbing effect."
健康地域格差の発生・拡大機構の地域統計科学的解明

奥村誠

Offer Organization: 日本学術振興会

System: 科学研究費助成事業

Category: 新学術領域研究(研究領域提案型)

Institution: 東北大学

2010 - 2011

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本研究の目的は,内容の限られた地域ごとの集計的な観測データと,少数であるが内容の豊かな個々の人間・企業に対するミクロなデータを駆使し,現在の地域格差の実情を正しく理解するばかりでなく,地域格差を発生・拡大させる機構を解明するための方法論を提案することである。平成23年度は,東日本大震災被災地で十分なサンプル数の社会調査や医療・健康データの収集が困難となった。そこで,震災後の調査の情報で把握できる次の2つの典型的な現象を対象に,空間的な格差の発生問題を分析した。 ●地域のガソリンスタンド(GS)の備蓄切れには時間的なずれがあり,供給状況の改善も徐々に進んだはずなのに,GSへの行列の発生と消滅は一気に生じた。 ●震災前からGS数は減ってきていたが,平常時には不便さや地域的な格差は意識されていなかった。震災により不便さや地域格差が大きな問題として認識された。 1番目の現象は,地域内での観測情報が新聞記事やインターネット,口コミ,で伝わる過程において,観測頻度の違いによるバイアスとして理解できることを示した。 2番目の現象は,GSの利用形態が変化した結果として説明できる。すなわち平常時は,待ち時間が少ないため他の用事で移動中に至近のGSに立ち寄ること(移動中利用)が可能であり,GS数が減少しても余分の移動時間(距離)は増加しない。震災時には,GSでの待ち時間が長く不確実になり,自宅から給油のためだけに出かける(居住地利用)必要が生じて移動時間(距離)が大きくなり,GS数の減少の影響も大きくなった。このことを数値計算により明らかにした。
Intercity transport facility planning responsive to cancellation and delay risks

OKUMURA Makoto, TSUKAI Makoto, FUJIWARA Akimasa, ZHANG Junyi, YOSHIMURA Mitsunori, SAKAMOTO Maiko

Offer Organization: Japan Society for the Promotion of Science

System: Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research

Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)

2005 - 2007

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In order to improve the responsibility of inter-city transport facility plan to cancellation and delay risks, especially airports in non metropolitan area, where automobiles are mainly used for access measure, the following researches were conducted in these three years. 1. Measuring automobile traffic flows on routes entering airport: To grasp the behavior of airport users in time dimension, automobile traffic flows around Oita, Sendai and Hiroshima Airports were measured by portable traffic counters, covering also the case of cancellation or delays of flights. 2. Analysis of behavioral changes by cancellation or delay: Independent Component Analysis method was applied to the above measured traffic data and grasp some typical change of behavior due to cancellation and delays at Hiroshima. 3. Pre-information of the flight cancellation and delay: Average arrival time to the airport calculated through the traffic flow data, and geographical distribution of trip origins are considered to estimate the required timing f pre-information of flight cancellation and delay. 4. Conflicts among the stakeholders of terminal facility planning: In order to avoid the delay of planning process due to the conflicts among the stakeholders, a typical facility planning process is divided into sub-planning process based on the pre-determined unique quantity of traffic, based on non-delay, non-cancellation basis. 5. Improvement of planning process aiming to be risk-responsive: We proposed a new process of planning by adding performance check process in case of cancellation or severe delays. Independent. Component Analysis method was applied to historical flight time data, in order to pick up several typical delay patterns.
内航水運の高度化に関する日伯共同研究の企画

奥村誠, 山田忠史, 土井康明, 塚井誠人, 羽藤英二, 朝倉康夫

Offer Organization: 日本学術振興会

System: 科学研究費助成事業

Category: 基盤研究(C)

Institution: 広島大学

2002 - 2002

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本研究は、アマゾン川と瀬戸内海との水運上の類似性を踏まえた日伯共同研究の予備的な検討を目的としている。交付内定後にブラジルの内航水運の実施上問題となっている項目を整理した結果、当初想定していたアマゾン川本流における縦断方向の貨物水運と横断方向の旅客水運との錯綜は大きな問題ではなく、むしろ内陸部からの大豆等の農作物の輸送ルートとしてアマゾン川の水運を活用する運河プロジェクトの実現可能性の検討が重要な研究課題とであることがわかった。 9月にブラジルに渡航し、最大の穀倉地帯であるマト・グロッソ州の連邦大学との研究交流、運河が計画されているパラグアイ川の視察、現在の大豆の積み出し港湾であるポルト・ベーリョ港の視察と物流業者ヒアリング、首都ブラジリアに戻っての運輪省水路局、在ブラジル日本国大使館、国際協力事業団事務所へのヒアリングをふまえ、ブラジリア大学にて今後の研究協力についての研究セミナーを開催した. その成果は以下のようである.1.内陸部からの大豆の愉送ルートの確立はブラジル政府の重要な政策である.2.アマゾン流域の森林を保護する立場から道路輸送に頼ることは問題が多い.3.現在計画中の運河はパンタナール湿地帯の自然環境保護上の問題がある.4.そのため、航走波等の影響の少ない船舶の開発が必要である.5.また大豆の輸送時期をコントロールする物流計画が重要である.6.さらに、大豆油等への加工工程を加えることにより輪送量を抑えることも必要となるため、地域経済への影響も踏まえた検討が必要である.7.4.-6.について日本からの学術的支援が強く望まれており、在ブラジル大使館および国際協力事業団の協力を仰き得ることが確認できた。
リサイクル物流の効率的実現方策に関する研究

奥村誠, 藤原章正, 山田忠史, 高橋勝彦, 塚井誠人, 岡村敏之

Offer Organization: 日本学術振興会

System: 科学研究費助成事業

Category: 萌芽研究

Institution: 広島大学

2001 - 2002

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本研究では、生産工学、輸送工学、交通工学、地域計画の分野から見たリサイクル物流の問題点を議論し、相互の関連性の共通理解を踏まえて今後の研究課題を抽出・整理することを第1の目的とした。その際、自動車、家電、建設産業などの先進的な企業等へのヒアリングや実務者の講演を実施し、実際的な議論を行うことができた。以上の議論を踏まえ、消費者や小売業のリサイクル行動および企業内における物流、在庫、生産の機能を統合化した概念モデルを構築と、それらの主要な関連関係を数量的に考察するためのシミュレーションモデルの構築を第2の目的とした。しかし消費者のリサイクル行動に関するデータの蓄積はなく、数量的な検討を行うことが困難であることがわかり、概念モデルに関する検討を行うにとどまっている。第3の目的は、リサイクルの進展が物流拠点・生産拠点の配置に及ぼす影響を明らかにすることであり、在庫コストを考慮した物流ネットワークの配置計画モデルのレビューを行い、日本国内の交通網データ、立地コストデータを当てはめて、立地行動のシミュレーションを行うことができた。第4の目的として、物流と生産の協調方策を提案してその効果を分析することとしていたが、システム全体の数量的な検討は困難であることから、再資源の生産活動への導入を考えた場合の企業の在庫管理モデルを集中的に開発した。以上の研究の結果、対象とする製品によってリサイクルの形態が大きく異なるため、一般的なモデルを提案することは困難であるが、代表的な製品を取り上げた定量的な検討が必要であることがわかった。また、回収品と製品の荷姿や発生頻度が大きく異なることから、同一のトラックを用いた往復輸送は実際的でないため、拠点配置の問題も、既存の立地モデルに静脈側の物流コストを足しこむことによりある程度分析できることがわかった。
Development of Planning Support System for Emergent Water Distribution in Medium Size Cities

OKUMURA Makoto, SUGIE Yoriyasu, TSUKAI Makoto, KOMATSU Toshiko, OKAMURA Toshiyuki, FUJIWARA Akimasa

Offer Organization: Japan Society for the Promotion of Science

System: Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research

Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)

Institution: HIROSHIMA UNIVERSITY

1999 - 2001

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In case of break down of water supply system by earthquake, use of ground water for drinking and utilities strongly helps emergent water distribution work, especially in the medium-size cities where huge investment for earth-quake proof water pipe line is not affordable. Ground water, however, can be contaminated by the break of sewage system, and its quality must be checked before use for drinking. In this study, we have studied two points concerning on emergent water supply: Ground water quality simulation system to increase the usability of it as drinking water, and water distribiition planning system. For the first viewpoints, this study proposes a procedure to select small number of test wells in order to diagnose the ground water quality of other wells in the region economically, based on the correlation among the wells. The procedure simulates transfer of contamination under every possible destruction pattern and evaluates expected water distnbution cost for the people around the risky wells. For the second purpose, we formulate the emergent water supply problem as a compound problem of a facility location problem to determine water supplying points, and a vehicle routing problem. The former is a problem. The former is a problem minimizes the number of supplying water points with the condition of covering of all residence places within the limit distance for water carrying. The latter is a problem which makes minimizes the total vehicle distance to distribute water to all water supplying points detemined above the facility location problem. Using heuristic methods, a calculation procedure to propose efficient water supply work in an emergency is established We apply this procedure to the Saijo area in Higashi-Hiroshima City. The influence of the destructions of water storages and bridges on the water supply work is calculated, and the effects of the pre-disaster earthquake-proof countermeasures for these facilities are analyzed.
交通需要管理施策の経済的評価と導入可能性の研究

奥村誠

Offer Organization: 日本学術振興会

System: 科学研究費助成事業

Category: 奨励研究(A)

Institution: 広島大学

1999 - 2000

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本研究は,スケジュールコストの増大や業務効率の低下の損失を差し引いても,混雑緩和効果が大きい交通需要管理施策を見いだすための経済的評価の方法論を構築するとともに,各個人への正負の影響から交通行動の変化が進むかどうかを分析する方法論を確立することを目的としている. 昨年度,鉄道通勤交通を対象に通勤者,鉄道事業者,一般企業の行動を整理した結果,連続的に取った時間軸上での簡単な関数により効用,運行費用及び生産額が近似できることがわかった.また始業時刻(終業時刻)が1時点に固定されたもとで均衡通勤パターンと社会的厚生水準を求める均衡モデルを構築した. 本年度は,以上を踏まえ,交通需要管理施策の目的を最大限実現する時間帯別の交通量を最適化問題として求解し,施策の強度,経済的効果の評価,主体別の便益変化を明らかにする研究を実施した. 1.始業時刻分割下での出発時刻分布の算出と評価一般企業が始業時刻を複数個に分割した時差出勤下での出発時刻選択行動を考察した.他の企業が選択した始業時刻と合わせるほど業務効率が高いという時間的集積の経済性が存在する場合,通勤者は,混雑緩和の正の効果と,スケジュールコストの増加および集積の経済性が失われ賃金が低下する負の効果を勘案して行動する.この場合,複数の均衡解が存在し,効率性の低い均衡解にロックインされる可能性があるために,行政主体による誘導が必要となることがわかった. 2.最適な始業時刻分布とその実現方法の分析最適制御モデルにより,社会的厚生水準を最大化する出発時刻分布,始業時刻分布を求解し,最適なパターンを実現するために必要となるフレックスパターンの導入割合を示すとともに,実現を可能にするための時刻別混雑料金を計算した.
Study on the disaster in west Japan due to heavy rain around seasonal rain front, at June 29 1999

FUKUOKA Shoji, MORIWAKI Takeo, HASHIMOTO Haruyuki, TAKARA Kaoru, WATANABE Akihide, OKUMURA Makoto

Offer Organization: Japan Society for the Promotion of Science

System: Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research

Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research on Priority Areas (B).

Institution: Hiroshima University

1999 - 1999

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1. Research report on Hiroshima disaster due to the torrential downpour : The main cause of the Hiroshima disaster is that the heavy rain due to the cold front continued for 2 or 3 hours at the Masa soil belts. This heavy rain appeared in the band with small width. It was considered that this concentration of rainfall was under the influence of the mountainous geographical features. A radar rain gauge was effective for tracing the movement of the heavy rain. The danger of the disaster can be predicted by analyzing the amount of the ground water from precipitation. Geology structure, geographical features and formation of micro seating are given as a cause of disaster except for rain. The mud-flow with the driftwood, which didn't contain large rocks, brought. The debris flow can be expressed by Egashira's model. The hazard maps and the effects on countermeasures can be examined by using this models. The inhabitants don't run away only with the advanced information such as a rainfall. The inhabitants run away by the confirmation of the mud water and the slope collapse, and the refuge advice. Therefore, it becomes important for reducing the sudden disasters that information is transmitted precisely and quickly when the disaster occurs and the consciousness for disaster prevention of inhabitants is raised. 2. Research report on the urban flood damage in Fukuoka City The heavy rain in north area of Kyushu is due to rain band around the cold front. The water level of the Mikasa River was raised due to the high tide of Hakata bay and a heavy rain, and the Mikasa River overflowed. The damage due to inundation occurred around JR Hakata station whose ground was low. Flooding water got into the underground space around JR Hakata station. The late person who ran away died. It is effective in prevention of an overflowing water invasion underground to use the sand bugs and raise an entrance more than the passage side. The transmission of the the command system are necessary for the precise information. The cause of this disaster was that the high tide of Hakata bay occurred at the same time for a heavy rain and the amount of discharge increased due to the urbanization. The establishment to prevent an overflowing water invasion, the information transmission to underground, the disaster consciousness improvement are necessary except for river improvements to reduce the new urban flood damage.
Activity-based Approaches for Urban Transportation Planning

SUGIE Yoriyasu, TSUKAI Makoto, OKUMURA Makoto, FUJIWARA Akimasa

Offer Organization: Japan Society for the Promotion of Science

System: Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research

Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B).

Institution: Hiroshima University

1998 - 1999

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The objective of this research is to develop a new urban transportation planning method based on the concept of activity-based approach. After two years study, the following research results are obtained. 1. Weekend Shopping Activity Participation Model Depending on Weekday Shopping Behavior A strong correlation is found between weekend shopping participation and weekday shopping frequency, using seven days' consecutive activity diary data from Utsunomiya. In addition, a weekend shopping participation model, dependent on the weekday shopping frequency, is proposed. The model is specified using the Utsunomiya data and its validity is verified by statistical tests. 2. Cost and Benefit of Respondent Incentive Articles in Transportation Survey Many private surveys use respondent incentive articles (RIA) in order to increase response rate. This paper will analyze the effectiveness of RIA in transport survey. As well as theoretical assessment of survey cost a case study of a shopping travel survey held in a shopping district in Hiroshima practically illustrates the effectiveness of the RIAs. 3. Nested Pared Combinatorial Logit Model to Analyze Recreational Touring Behavior The destination and route alternatives of recreational touring behavior models seem not to be exclusive and independent. This study proposes Nested Paired Combinatorial Logit (PCL) model to predict route and destination choice behavior. The model can remove the IID assumption on the error components across the alternatives. The model is proved to be valid in forecasting the tourism demand by empirical study. 4. Improving Methods of Presenting Travel Time Reliability in SP Experiments A key finding of this work is that service punctuality is indeed highly valued by rail passengers. This finding is line with a substantial body of previous qualitative research, but at variance with at least some previous quantitative studies. This study suggests that the difference may be due, in part, to shortcomings in the conventional presentation of travel time unreliability used in SP exercises.
Regional Economic Integration with Global Infrastructure

KOBAYASHI Kiyoshi, KITA Hideyuki, FUJITA Masahisa, OKADA Norio, KAZUHIRO Tatano, OKUMURA Makoto

Offer Organization: Japan Society for the Promotion of Science

System: Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research

Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B).

Institution: KYOTO UNIVERSITY

1997 - 1999

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We have developed a multi-regional growth model, considering externality of knowledge production and inter-regional interaction (business trips and migration) in order to investigate the impact of rapid transportation systems upon the regional division of production and regional disparities in incomes. The model simulates the dynamic processes of the economic development of city systems, including knowledge accumulation process, as capital accumulation. Knowledge exchange activities are basically very time consuming, and the resulting high wage rate as a result of knowledge accumulation may create a difficult situation : if we want to expand our knowledge further, we must precious time. We also extend the multi-regional growth model by introducing the time dimension in order to discuss the above dilemma about knowledge accumulation and time value (or wage rate). The model can provide a powerful tool for analyzing the roles of several kinds of worldwide networks conveying knowledge with different speed and cost, which seems to be one of the most important issues regarding economic and political development in Asia. In our model, the economic geography of city systems is explicitly introduced into Zhangian growth modeling to investigate the dynamic impacts of high-speed transportation systems upon the development processes of city patterns, the accumulation of capital and knowledge in city systems, and the evolution of the economic geography. The main effect of high-speed transportation services, including railway and airway systems, upon the economic geography of city systems is that they provide city economies with expanded opportunities of inter-city face-to-face communications among the knowledge-handling labor force. It is emphasized how differences in geographic and qualitative factors of transportation systems may affect regional economic development. The model simulates the dynamic processes of the economic development of city systems.
生産力の異質性を考慮した都市システムモデルの推定方法

奥村誠

Offer Organization: 日本学術振興会

System: 科学研究費助成事業

Category: 奨励研究(A)

Institution: 広島大学

1997 - 1998

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高速道路や新幹線などの交通機関の整備が都市間の競争条件と発展パターンに与える影響を分析するために都市システムモデルが開発されているが、パラメータの推定方法が確立されておらず、仮想的なケースに対するシミュレーション実験に留まっている。本研究は各都市の生産力に質的な差異(異質性)が存在することを前提として、都市システムモデルのパラメータ推定方法を開発した。生産力の異質性は直接観測できないことを前提にした。本研究は交通行動モデル推定の近年の研究成果を援用した推定方法の開発を目指した。本年度は2年間の研究の2年目であり,成果は次の2点である。 1. 都市生産力の異質性を表現できるデータの整理と推定方法の適用性の検討都市生産力の異質性に関する既存の文献を収集・整理した。異質性の抽出のためには、従来成長会計分析に用いられてきた手法が有用であるが、資本や労働力の質の変化を補正する適当な手法が確立していないことが問題であることがわかった。従って昨年開発した業務交通量を用いた異質性の推定方法が有用であると結論づけた。 2. 異質性を考慮した都市システムモデルの推定と実証的適用以上の考察を受けて、業務交通量モデルにおいて異質性を潜在変数を用いて表現して共分散構造モデルとしてパラメータ推定を行い、その結果を取り込んで他の構造パラメータを推定することを実証的に試みた。さらにモデルを中四国の都道府県を単位とするデータに適用し、再現性とモデルの挙動に関する基本的なシミュレーションを実施した。さらに、異質性パラメータを動かしたときの結果の安定性について考察を行った結果、価格に反映されにくい異質性の影響は、長期的に残存することが確かめられた。
DECENTRALIZATION OF INFRASTRUCTURE PLANING PROCESS

OKUMURA Makoto, HIDESHIMA Eizo, TATANO Hirokazu, KOBAYASHI Kiyoshi, OKADA Norio, KIMATA Noboru

Offer Organization: Japan Society for the Promotion of Science

System: Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research

Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)

Institution: HIROSHIMA UNIVERSITY

1995 - 1996

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Orthodox infrastructure planning process has implicitly assumed an public body with perfect information as a planner. In the reality, however, private sectors as well as public bodies on several regional levels build plans of infrastructure development. They have different information and different political aims. We must build a new planning theory to support plural actors in planning process, enabling them to corporate effectively. Considering the origin of actors in decentralized processing systems, in general, systems can be classified into two different categories ; Distributed Planning Process and Cooperative Planning Process. The former is a system where planning works originally executed by the central planning actor are distributed on several local bolies, in order to increase the total system efficiency (management point of view), while the latter system are grown from bilateral cooperations between local actors having their own rights to decide plans by themselves. In both systems, the corporative process requeres planning abilities in each local bodies. Information interactions between local bodies seems key point in order to manage such systems effectively. This study discussed mathematical structures about such information exchages between local managers of water reservoirs interacting each other. In case of disasters, e.g.large earthquakes, information exchange in hierarchical structures in public bodies become difficult, then decentralized management and processing are widely seen. The study summarized the common characteristics of such decentralized management of public service after Hanshin Awaji Earthquake in Jan., 1995, and shown that regional decentralization and parallel processing saved time of decision making in ordinal process in series. Parallel data processing scheme can be used to analyze effectiveness of performance of such systems. We are now entering a second stage of infrastructure planning ; from civil-minimum infrastructures for existence of life to selective infrastructures for higher quality of life.. Such infrastructure requires software as well as hardware. In software planning, public sector has not sufficient information, idea or knowledge. Private actors and users are expected as positive planner of such software. In such case, discussions on conflicts between private aims and public one are required. We analyzed conflicts between landowners in urban development projects and discussed conflict resolution methods using game theory.
交通データによる地域文化施設の整備効果計測方法に関する研究

奥村誠

Offer Organization: 日本学術振興会

System: 科学研究費助成事業

Category: 奨励研究(A)

Institution: 広島大学

1995 - 1995

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文化活動を経済的に評価する方法の欠如が、使いにくく没個性的な施設整備の一因となってきた。本研究では、住民がある活動施設における文化活動に高い価値を見出しているがゆえに、長い移動時間をかけてその施設にくると考え、交通移動時間の長さをもとに文化活動の魅力度と経済評価額を求めることを考える。上述の目的を達成するため、次のような内容の研究を実施した。 1.サービスの取引価格と需要が直接観測できない場合に、交通費用などの別の市場の価格を用いて需要曲線を推定する「代替市場法」が開発され、欧米における適用が進められている。それらの事例をレビューした結果、交通費用法の応用性は広いが、政策誘導バイアスが起こりやすいことがわかった。 2.バイアスの除去方法に関する研究を実施した。既存の代表的な方法では交通費用として直接の金銭的費用と間接の時間的費用を取り入れることが多い。この場合、利用率の違いをすべて交通費用によるものと仮定すると、勤務時間などの制約の影響が支配的な場合には過小評価になる危険性がある。そのため、アンケート中で当該の行動以外の活動に関する時間の利用についても尋ねることにより政策誘導バイアスを発生させにくくするとともに、時間制約の影響を分離し、バイアスを除去する方法を考察した。 3.ある活動に初めて参加する者と、継続的に参加する者とでは施設の評価額は大きく異なると考えられる。実際のアンケート結果からこの違いを確認するとともに、それらを考慮した施設整備効果の計測方法を提案した。以上のことより、移動時間と費用をもとに信頼性の高い評価額を算出する方法の開発に寄与した。
産業構造の変化が物資流動に与える影響の分析

奥村誠

Offer Organization: 日本学術振興会

System: 科学研究費助成事業

Category: 奨励研究(A)

Institution: 京都大学

1994 - 1994

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産業構造の変化により、物流に対する需要は量的には小さくなったが、指定されたものを指定された量、指定された時刻に輸送する必要に迫られるなど、質的にはより高度になっている。本研究では、複数年次の産業連関表を活用し、産業構造の変化と物流の需要・コストとの関連性を分析した。また、地域の物流コストの違いが、システム型の産業の立地可能性に与える影響について考察した。 1.産業構造の変化に伴なう物流への需要の変化各産業の取引関係の複雑性を表現する指標を定義し、高付加価値生産を行うためにシステム型の産業が増加していることを明らかにした。さらに、システム型の産業は中間財投入が増加し、物資流動への需要量が増加する傾向にあることがわかった。 2.物流に対する需要の複雑さがコストに及ぼす影響各産業、地域ごとに、生産額に対する物流部門への支払額の比率を求め、物流コストを比較した。システム型の産業はJIT生産のために物流部門に対して確実性や定時性をより厳しく要求するため、物流コストが高いことを回帰分析により明らかにした。 3.地域の物流コストがシステム産業の立地に与える影響投入構造の複雑化が物流コストに与える影響は地方圏よりも大都市圏で顕著であることを明らかにした。これまで、システム型の産業は取引関係が多くなるため、密接に連絡を取り合うことができる大都市への集中が有利であると考えられてきたが、物流のコストの点からは地方圏の方が有利である可能性もあることがわかった。
大規模都市開発プロジェクトによる社会基盤形成過程とその段階的整備戦略に関する研究

吉川和広, 秀島栄三, 奥村誠, 岡田憲夫

Offer Organization: 日本学術振興会

System: 科学研究費助成事業

Category: 一般研究(C)

Institution: 京都大学

1993 - 1993

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都市開発プロジェクトの究極的目的は新しい社会的要請にみあう「都市的な場」を形成することにある。本研究では都市開発プロジェクトを一種の社会基盤形成過程として捉え、1.実行組織の多層性、2.社会的機能についてシステム論的な理解を試みた。 1.については、開発に関与する複数主体間の関連構造の把握に重点をおき研究を進めた。主体間の利害調整の場は多段階、多階層にわたり、要求される機能、共有財の配分および利用の3点を主な調整対象としながら、たえず主体間の提携構造が重要視されることを諸事例において確認した。また協力ゲーム理論を援用して調整過程の理論化を行った。 2.については、都市開発プロジェクトが周辺社会に対して発揮する機能に注目した。このときプロジェクトの物的整備のみを考慮するのでは不十分であり、社会基盤の形成過程に関わる事業主体や利用主体などの社会的主体とそれらの活動に対する影響というソフト的側面にまで目を向けなければならない。本研究では多数の事例をふまえて協議会による開発プロジェクトの事業組織の醸成プロセスと、イベントを活用した開発プロジェクトを中心とする地域振興のプロセスを分析し、ソフト的整備戦略に関する一般的知見を得た。本研究で題材とした社会基盤形成過程としての都市開発プロジェクトは工学と社会科学の横断領域における好適な題材であり、今後もなお研究の発展の可能性を秘めているものと思われる。
地域技術力の把握と評価に関する研究

吉川和広, 秀島栄三, 奥村誠, 岡田憲夫

Offer Organization: 日本学術振興会

System: 科学研究費助成事業

Category: 一般研究(C)

Institution: 京都大学

1992 - 1992

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本研究は、地域が有する技術力の把握と評価の方法を確立し、それをもとに地域に対して適切な技術の蓄積と活用を軸とする産業活性化の方策を提示することを目的として進めてきた。まず工業統計表、産業連関表、その他技術移転に関する資料等より各種の地域技術力の評価指標を作成し、さらにこれらを用いて各地域に対する評価を行った。代表的な結論として、以下のようなことが挙げられる。 1.技術の移動は基本的に人材を介して行われている。人自体の移動及びフェース・トゥ・フェースコンタクトによる情報の移動が重要である。また人的交流を促すために、交通基盤施設に加え、高度なサービスを付与した集客・会合施設の整備が必要と考え、地域の技術発展プロセスを踏まえたそれらの整備計画について検討した。 2.都市の新製品開発力には大企業による影響が強く、現況では地域固有の技術による側面が希薄である。 3.地方部では固有な技術を有していても必ずしも製品の市場優位性に繋がっていない。産業活性化の方策としては、地場産業等に蓄積された技術を基礎として技術的連関を有し、製品の移出が容易で資金の獲得がしやすく、産業構造の拘束を受けずに自由に市場や技術に関する情報を得られる業種を立地させ、産業の多角化を図ることが考えられる。そこで各種の産業がそれらの条件を満たすかを調べ、諸地域において誘致・育成するのに適切な業種を明らかにした。
地域イベントの効果計測と計画方法論に関する研究

奥村誠

Offer Organization: 日本学術振興会

System: 科学研究費助成事業

Category: 奨励研究(A)

Institution: 京都大学

1991 - 1991
産業へのインパクトを考慮した空港背後圏の整備に関する研究

吉川和広, 春名攻, 奥村誠

Offer Organization: 日本学術振興会

System: 科学研究費助成事業

Category: 一般研究(C)

Institution: 京都大学

1991 - 1991

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今日、わが国の産業構造は大きな変貎を遂げつつある。特に、軽薄短小型の産業は、製品輸送のための運賃負担力が大きく、高度な技術知識の投入を必要とすることから、空港の背後圏での位地が進展している。このように、空港を新たな時代の産業基盤施設ととらえて、空港のインパクトを活用して地域産業の転換を図り、地域経済を活性化するための方策を探求することが重要である。 1.主要都市における空港の機能活用に関する研究都市での空港機能の活用と都市活性化の方策を調べるため、国内外の主要20空港を取り上げ、背後地都市機能の比較研究を行った。a)情報サ-ビス機能、b)教育・研究機能、c)物流・商取引機能、d)金融機能、e)通信・情報機能、f)観光レクリエ-ション機能が地域整備戦略上重要であることがわかった。 2.都市の産業構造と空港の影響に関する研究プロダクトサイクルの進行にともなうR&D依存度の変化に着目し、空港の背後圏と、類似の地域の産業構造の比較を行った。その結果、活発なR&D活動を必要とする導入期、あるいは衰退期の産業にとって空港の優位性は大きく現われる。このことから、製品輸送の定時性・確実性の向上よりも、技術者のアクセシビリティの向上の要因が大きいことがわかった。 3.空港関連プロジェクトのインパクト分析モデル作成空港と関連プロジェクトのインパクトを活用した地域整備のあり方を分析するために、システムダイナミックス手法を用いたシミュレ-ションモデルの構成について考察した。デ-タの制約により、定量的なシミュレ-ション分析にはいたっていないが、モデルの構築を通じて効果波及の定性的な整理ができた。
高度技術社会に対応したロジスティックシステムに関する研究

吉川和広, 文世一, 多々納裕一, 小林潔司, 岡田憲夫, 奥村誠

Offer Organization: 日本学術振興会

System: 科学研究費助成事業

Category: 重点領域研究

Institution: 京都大学

1990 - 1990

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ロジスティックシステムとは、地域間の人・物・金・情報のフロ-を支えるようなハ-ド、ソフトなシステムを意味する。本研究では、産業のサイクルを見極めながら、環境条件を満足させつつ、ロジスティックシステムをいかに整備して、どのような産業を地域の中で育てていくかという問題を戦略的に検討する方法を開発する。本年度は重点領域研究全体の初年度である。そこで概念の整理と次年度以降の枠組みの議論に重点をおいた。 1.技術革新とロジスティックシステムの概念に関する検討を行い、技術革新に対応した整備の重要性を明らかにした。特に、これまで港湾都市としての役割を果たしてきたベイエリア地域を対象にして、ロジステックシステムの意義と内容の変遷を歴史的に跡づけて実証的な考察を試みた。 2.地域の産業構造とロジスティックシステムとの関連性に関する検討を実施した。世界の主要国をサンプルとして、過去25年程度の工業生産デ-タを収集し、プロダクトサイクルの進行にともなって必要となるロジスティックシステムの内容が異なってくることを明らかにした。 3.ロジスティックシステムのあり方が地域構造に及ぼす影響を考察した。ここでは、最近の高度情報化に伴うテレコミュニケ-ション手段の発達が、コンタクトを多く行うようなオフィスの立地に対して、どのような影響を及ぼすかを検討する。本年度はオフィスの立地モデルの開発を行った。 4.さらに、近年の環境問題への関心の高まりを受けて、ロジスティックシステム整備においても環境条件を明示的に考慮する必要があると考え、来年度以降の研究枠組みについての議論を実施した。
多地域モデルの同時推定法に関する研究

奥村誠

Offer Organization: 日本学術振興会

System: 科学研究費助成事業

Category: 奨励研究(A)

Institution: 京都大学

1989 - 1989
Building the Simulation Model of performance in Constructive Works and its application to Project Planning

MAMORU Haruna, MAKOTO Okumura, KAZUHIRO Yoshikawa

Offer Organization: Japan Society for the Promotion of Science

System: Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research

Category: Grant-in-Aid for General Scientific Research (C)

Institution: Kyoto University

1986 - 1987

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Recent construction works in severer circumstances, as deep underground, using gigantic machines are increased. Although it had been instructive for construction management, technical know-how of engineers has lost its compatibility to the new type construction technique. Instead of it, scientific analysis before or while works are executed would have more importance for smooth execution of works. From this viewpoint,(1) building the model simulating the performance of constructive works, and (2) development a Project Planning System using this model are two main purposes of this study. 1. Building the simulation model of performance in constructive works (1986) (1) To build the rough scheduling method using Time-Space Diagram. (2) To build the job schedule simulation model programmed in General Purpose System Simulator(GPSS). (3) To build the model simulating the physical performance of constructive works, which is connected with the above GPSS model. (4) To discuss how to feed back from the problems detrected by these simulations to improvement of the rough schedule. 2. Application to the project planning of Urban Highway Construction (1987) (5) To analyze the functional structure of the above models in relation with feasibility, efficiency, safety, and so on. (6) By hearing the engineers with experience, we picked up the additional functions of the model; easier access to designed parameters, environment conditions. (7) To develop a project planning system using those models built above.

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Social Activities 25

名取市防災リーダー養成事業

2015/12/05 - 2015/12/19

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講演「私がいま助かること」から「みんながいつも助かることへ」
「東日本大震災と復興，得られた経験を未来に繋ぐ」

防災に関するシンポジウム

2021/01/27 -
「選ばれる都市へ挑戦し続ける新たな杜の都」

仙台市都市計画マスタープランシンポジウム

2020/12/22 -
建設業はデジタル革命にどう取り組むか？

第4回和合館東北フォーラム2020「デジタル変革（DX）と建設産業」

2020/11/06 -
オープニングトーク／総合計画審議会長としてのコメント

みんなのせんだい未来づくりシンポジウム「チャレンジを続ける新たな杜の都」

2020/10/04 -
震災10年の成果と課題

震災復興リレーシンポジウム〜震災復興の10年の成果と課題を俯瞰する〜

2020/07/04 -
仙台の特徴と今後の不動産活用戦略

令和元年度一般開放講演会

2019/10/25 -
最短コースが被害を最大に－防災の最前線、自動走行、アプリ、シミュレーション・・・

2017/03/06 -

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自動車を用いた津波避難の最適計画モデルの研究成果
神戸大学震災復興支援・災害科学研究推進室第4回シンポジウム

2015/10/09 -

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講演「自然災害は人口移動にどう影響してきたか？過去35年間の都道府県間移動から」
震災対策技術展in仙台2015

2015/08/06 -

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都市活動の復旧パターンを探る～携帯電話ビッグデータの活用～
会津縦貫北道路開通記念これからの地域振興を考えるシンポジウム

2015/08/03 -

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道路が拓く，交流形の地域振興
国土交通省第34回総合的交通基盤整備連絡会議における基調講演

2013/05/30 -

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基調講演「低密度地域における交通について」講師
「大震災からの復興と新しい成長に向けて」シンポジウムにおけるパネリスト

2013/03/22 -

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METI-RIETIシンポジウム「大震災からの復興と新しい成長に向けて」におけるパネルディスカッション・パネリスト
東日本大震災支部合同調査委員報告会シンポジウムにおけるパネル報告

2013/03/21 -

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東日本大震災支部合同調査委員報告会シンポジウムパネルディスカッションにおいて、「不確実な災害事象に対して誰が何を準備するのか？」についての報告と議論を行った。
宮城県利府町産業振興協議会における特別講演

2013/02/22 -

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特別講演「東日本大震災後の東北の活性化と復興」
東北ITSシンポジウムにおける基調講演

2012/11/26 -

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基調講演「東日本大震災が教えた交通と情報の重要性と今後の課題」
岐阜大学工学部での特別講演

2012/11/12 -

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特別講演「東日本大震災後の東北の復興」を行った。
道路新産業機構における基調講演

2012/06/28 -

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基調講演「東日本大震災における道路の役割と今後の道路計画」講師
京都市小中学校環境教育研究会での講演

2011/08/03 -

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小中学校教員を対象に「自然環境を生かした生活と交通」と題してを行った。
宮城県「仙台都市圏高速環状ネットワーク」を考えるシンポジウムにおける基調講演

2010/10/03 -

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基調講演「高速環状道路ネットワークの意義と活用」講師および，パネルディスカッション・コーディネーター
石巻・酒田間地域連携軸強化促進協議会における基調講演

2010/07/27 -

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基調講演「これからの時代の地域連携と道路整備」講師
長野県立長野高校での模擬授業

2010/06/26 -

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模擬授業「新幹線の延伸は地域にとって得か損か？」を行った。
仙台北部道路開通の意義

2010/03/26 -
「東北の地域を考える」シンポジウムにおける基調講演

2010/02/27 -

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基調講演「地域の宝を活かしてつくる新たな国土」講師および，パネルディスカッション・パネリスト
工学研究科災害制御研究センター公開講座

2006/10/04 -

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平成18年度の公開講座において、基調講演「人びとは災害にどう反応するか」を行った。

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Media Coverage 8

探る：津波避難における車利用

河北新報新聞

2016/02/11

Type: Newspaper, magazine

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探る：津波避難における車利用・交通工学の常識を乗り越える
インフラの信頼性を高めよ

日刊建設通信新聞

2013/07/31

Type: Newspaper, magazine

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日刊建設通信新聞特集におけるメインの論説記事を執筆した。
東北新幹線仙台まで復旧

テレビ朝日

2011/04/25

Type: TV or radio program

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東日本大震災による東北新幹線の被害の特長について解説した
東北新幹線全線開業

フジテレビジョン

2010/12/03

Type: TV or radio program

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新青森開業日のニュース番組において、新幹線開業がもたらすストロー効果の可能性についてコメントを行った。
「高信頼性」道路で導く地域の発展と安全・安心

日刊建設通信新聞

2010/08/05

Type: Newspaper, magazine

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日刊建設通信新聞東北支社暑中企画特集におけるメインの論説記事を執筆した。
東北地方を考えるシンポジウムの紹介

東北放送ラジオ

2010/02/16

Type: Other
東北大学サイエンスカフェ

河北新報

2009/07

Type: Newspaper, magazine
東北大学サイエンスカフェ

日本建設新聞

2009/06/30

Type: Newspaper, magazine

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Other 1

氷河減少に対する水資源管理適応策モデルの開発

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地球温暖化がボリビア国の氷河の減少と水資源の変化に与える影響を踏まえ,水資源管理策を研究するもので,水資源管理のための必要情報の整理収集,データベース化,可視化を担当した