Details of the Researcher

PHOTO

Daijiro Mizutani
Section
Graduate School of Engineering
Job title
Assistant Professor
Degree

  • 博士（工学）（大阪大学）

  • 修士（工学）（大阪大学）

e-Rad No.
30813414

Research History 5

  • 2020/10 - Present
    Tohoku University　Graduate School of Engineering, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering

  • 2017/08 - 2020/09
    Tohoku University　International Research Institute of Disaster Science

  • 2017/04 - 2017/07
    Osaka University　Graduate School of Engineering Division of Global Architecture

  • 2016/04 - 2017/03
    ETH Zurich　Institute of Construction & Infrastructure Management　Research Associate

  • 2014/04 - 2016/03
    Japan Society for the Promotion of Science

Education 3

  • Osaka University　Graduate School of Engineering　Division of Global Architecture

    2014/04 - 2016/09

  • Osaka University　Graduate School of Engineering　Division of Global Architecture

    2012/04 - 2014/03

  • Osaka University　School of Engineering

    2008/04 - 2012/03

Research Areas 2

  • Social infrastructure (civil Engineering, architecture, disaster prevention) / Civil engineering (planning and transportation) /

  • Social infrastructure (civil Engineering, architecture, disaster prevention) / Civil engineering (materials, implementation, construction management) /

Papers 57

  1. 365‐day sectional work zone schedule optimization for road networks considering economies of scale and user cost Peer-reviewed

    Yuto Nakazato, Daijiro Mizutani

    Computer-Aided Civil and Infrastructure Engineering　39　(15)　2270-2298　2024/08

    Publisher: Wiley

    DOI： 10.1111/mice.13273 　

    ISSN： 1093-9687

    eISSN： 1467-8667

    More details Close

    Abstract This study proposes a methodology for deriving the optimal work zone schedule for the annual routine maintenance planning in an infrastructure asset management system considering the (i) economies of scale in work zone costs due to work zone synchronization and (ii) user costs across the road network with traffic assignments. A key aspect of the proposed methodology is the ability to derive in detail optimal work zone schedules of realistic‐scale road networks in 100 m sections for 365 days, which is beneficial in practice. To this end, an optimization model of the work zone schedule is newly formulated as a mixed‐integer programming (MIP) problem, and a novel bilevel solution method for the model utilizing the conventional solver Gurobi Optimizer with MIP algorithms such as root relaxation, dual simplex, barrier methods, and cutting planes is proposed. In application examples, the proposed methodology is applied to two real‐world road networks, which confirms that the optimal work zone schedule can be obtained in 313.7 s for a network with 2640, 100 m, sections and in 168,180 s (46 h and 43 min) for a network with 5038, 100 m, sections.

  2. Future-proofing geotechnics workflows: accelerating problem-solving with large language models Peer-reviewed

    Stephen Wu, Yu Otake, Daijiro Mizutani, Chang Liu, Kotaro Asano, Nana Sato, Taiga Saito, Hidetoshi Baba, Yusuke Fukunaga, Yosuke Higo, Akiyoshi Kamura, Shinnosuke Kodama, Masataka Metoki, Tomoka Nakamura, Yuto Nakazato, Akihiro Shioi, Masahiro Takenobu, Keigo Tsukioka, Ryo Yoshikawa

    Georisk: Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards　1-18　2024/07/25

    Publisher: Informa UK Limited

    DOI： 10.1080/17499518.2024.2381026 　

    ISSN： 1749-9518

    eISSN： 1749-9526

  3. DISCRETE-TIME MULTISTAGE WEIBULL HAZARD MODEL Peer-reviewed

    Daijiro MIZUTANI, Kiyoyuki KAITO, Koya SHIKATA

    Japanese Journal of JSCE　80　(2)　23-00092　2024/02

    Publisher: Japan Society of Civil Engineers

    DOI： 10.2208/jscejj.23-00092 　

    eISSN： 2436-6021

  4. Optimal intervention policy of emergency storage batteries for expressway transportation systems considering deterioration risk during lead time of replacement Peer-reviewed

    Daijiro Mizutani, Yuto Nakazato, Rie Ikushima, Koki Satsukawa, Yosuke Kawasaki, Masao Kuwahara

    Reliability Engineering & System Safety　242　109735　2024/02

    Publisher: Elsevier BV

    DOI： 10.1016/j.ress.2023.109735 　

    ISSN： 0951-8320

  5. LONG-RUN OPTIMAL ROAD MAINTENANCE POLICIES CONSIDERING THE MARGINAL COST OF PUBLIC FUND Peer-reviewed

    Tatsuhito KONO, Makine SHIMA, Tomohiro NEZU, Daijiro MIZUTANI

    Japanese Journal of JSCE　79　(11)　23-00030　2023/11

    Publisher: Japan Society of Civil Engineers

    DOI： 10.2208/jscejj.23-00030 　

    eISSN： 2436-6021

  6. Infrastructure deterioration modeling with an inhomogeneous continuous time Markov chain: A latent state approach with analytic transition probabilities Peer-reviewed

    Daijiro Mizutani, Xian‐Xun Yuan

    Computer-Aided Civil and Infrastructure Engineering　38　(13)　1730-1748　2023/09

    Publisher: Wiley

    DOI： 10.1111/mice.12976 　

    ISSN： 1093-9687

    eISSN： 1467-8667

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    Abstract Markov chains have been widely used to characterize performance deterioration of infrastructure assets, to model maintenance effectiveness, and to find the optimal intervention strategies. For long‐lived assets such as bridges, the time‐homogeneity assumptions of Markov chains should be carefully checked. For this purpose, this research proposes a regime‐switching continuous‐time Markov chain of which the state transition probabilities depend on another, latent, Markov chain that characterizes the overall aging regime of an asset. With the aid of a state‐augmentation technique, closed‐form solutions for the transition probabilities are analytically derived, making the statistical analysis simple. A case study is presented using the open Ontario Bridge Condition data for provincial highway bridges. The case study demonstrates that the proposed method allows to (1) estimate a statistically superior model to the homogeneous Markov chain and (2) obtain results with comparable accuracy in approximately 48% of the computation time of the state‐of‐the‐art inhomogeneous Markov chain.

  7. Optimal repair policies for infrastructure systems with life cycle cost minimization and annual cost leveling Peer-reviewed

    Yuto Nakazato, Daijiro Mizutani, Shunichi Fukuyama

    Journal of Infrastructure Systems　29　(3)　04023021　2023/09

    Publisher: American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE)

    DOI： 10.1061/jitse4.iseng-2169 　

    ISSN： 1076-0342

    eISSN： 1943-555X

  8. 道路施設点検における故障予知に関する一考察 Peer-reviewed

    吉岡慶祐, 掛上寛希, 桑原雅夫, 下川澄雄, 水谷大二郎, 川崎洋輔, 佐津川功季

    交通工学研究発表会論文集　43　2023/08

    DOI： 10.14954/jsteproceeding.43.0_427 　

  9. Development of teaching materials and educational methods for AI and data science (Report of Results: WG-I, IV)

    4　(L3)　1-7　2023/05

  10. PAVEMENT REPAIR POLICY FOR HIGHWAY NETWORKS WITH GROUPING AND STATE AGGREGATION Peer-reviewed

    Yuto NAKAZATO, Daijiro MIZUTANI, Takeshi NAGAE

    Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. D3 (Infrastructure Planning and Management)　78　(5)　I_193-I_204　2023/05

    Publisher: Japan Society of Civil Engineers

    DOI： 10.2208/jscejipm.78.5_i_193 　

    eISSN： 2185-6540

  11. EFFECTS OF COMPREHENSIVE PRIVATE CONSIGNMENT OF SEWAGE WATER TREATMENT PLANTS: EVALUATION BASED ON COST EFFICIENCY Peer-reviewed

    Kiyoyuki KAITO, Naoki TAKESUE, Daijiro MIZUTANI, Kiyoshi KOBAYASHI

    Japanese Journal of JSCE　79　(4)　22-002255　2023/04

    Publisher: Japan Society of Civil Engineers

    DOI： 10.2208/jscejj.22-00255 　

    eISSN： 2436-6021

  12. A COUNTING ESTIMATION METHOD OF MARKOV TRANSITION PROBABILITIES ALLOWING FOR INHOMOGENEITY IN INSPECTION INTERVALS Peer-reviewed

    Takuho YAMAGISHI, Daijiro MIZUTANI, Kengo OBAMA, Kiyoyuki KAITO

    Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. F4 (Construction and Management)　78　(1)　164-183　2022/10

    Publisher: Japan Society of Civil Engineers

    DOI： 10.2208/jscejcm.78.1_164 　

    eISSN： 2185-6605

  13. A MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATION OF POTENTIAL GAME MODELS WITH MULTIPLE EQUILIBRIA Peer-reviewed

    Takeshi NAGAE, Daijiro MIZUTANI

    Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. D3 (Infrastructure Planning and Management)　78　(3)　150-165　2022/09

    Publisher: Japan Society of Civil Engineers

    DOI： 10.2208/jscejipm.78.3_150 　

    eISSN： 2185-6540

  14. OPTIMAL REPAIR POLICY FOR ETC FACILITY WITH ECONOMIC LOSSES DUE TO TRAFFIC CONGESTION DURING FAILURES Peer-reviewed

    Koki SATSUKAWA, Daijiro MIZUTANI, Yosuke KAWASAKI, Takeo KANEDA, Masao KUWAHARA

    Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. D3 (Infrastructure Planning and Management)　78　(3)　105-121　2022/09

    Publisher: Japan Society of Civil Engineers

    DOI： 10.2208/jscejipm.78.3_105 　

    eISSN： 2185-6540

  15. A DETERIORATION PREDICTION METHOD FOR LAMPPOSTS CONSIDERING THE MISSING OF RENEWAL RECORDS Peer-reviewed

    Yohei NINOMIYA, Daijiro MIZUTANI, Kiyoyuki KAITO

    Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. F4 (Construction and Management)　78　(1)　118-132　2022/05

    Publisher: Japan Society of Civil Engineers

    DOI： 10.2208/jscejcm.78.1_118 　

    eISSN： 2185-6605

  16. EX-POST EVALUATION OF THE EFFECTS OF LIFESPAN-EXTENDING TECHNOLOGY BASED ON STEPWISE DETERIORATION HETEROGENEITY Peer-reviewed

    Kiyoyuki KAITO, Mitsuru JIDO, Daijiro MIZUTANI, Kiyoshi KOBAYASHI, Yusuke UNO

    Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. F4 (Construction and Management)　78　(1)　99-117　2022/05

    Publisher: Japan Society of Civil Engineers

    DOI： 10.2208/jscejcm.78.1_99 　

    eISSN： 2185-6605

  17. POSSIBILITY OF IMPROVING MANAGEMENT POLICIES FOR EXPRESSWAY FACILITIES BASED ON QUESTIONNAIRE SURVEY OF ON-SITE ENGINEERS Peer-reviewed

    Rie IKUSHIMA, Daijiro MIZUTANI, Koki SATSUKAWA, Yosuke KAWASAKI, Masao KUWAHARA

    Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. F4 (Construction and Management)　78　(1)　51-69　2022/03

    Publisher: Japan Society of Civil Engineers

    DOI： 10.2208/jscejcm.78.1_51 　

    eISSN： 2185-6605

  18. OPTIMAL MAINTENANCE POLICIES CONSIDERING THE MARGINAL COST OF PUBLIC FUNDS Peer-reviewed

    Tatsuhito KONO, Makine SHIMA, Daijiro MIZUTANI

    Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. D3 (Infrastructure Planning and Management)　77　(4)　389-399　2021/12

    Publisher: Japan Society of Civil Engineers

    DOI： 10.2208/jscejipm.77.4_389 　

    eISSN： 2185-6540

  19. HOLLOWING-OUT AND PROGRESS OF CONSTRUCTION ELEMENT TECHNOLOGY OF PRIME CONTRACTORS Peer-reviewed

    Sei-ichi HAMADA, Kiyoyuki KAITO, Eisaku SUGIHARA, Daijiro MIZUTANI

    Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. F4 (Construction and Management)　77　(1)　135-152　2021/07

    Publisher: Japan Society of Civil Engineers

    DOI： 10.2208/jscejcm.77.1_135 　

    eISSN： 2185-6605

  20. A SPATIO-TEMPORAL REPAIR SYNCHRONIZATION POLICY FOR A SMALL-SCALE ROAD PAVEMENT Peer-reviewed

    Yuto NAKAZATO, Daijiro MIZUTANI, Makoto OKUMURA

    Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. D3 (Infrastructure Planning and Management)　76　(5)　I_233-I_240　2021/04

    Publisher: Japan Society of Civil Engineers

    DOI： 10.2208/jscejipm.76.5_i_233 　

    eISSN： 2185-6540

  21. A BASIC METHOD TO EVALUATE MANAGEMENT POLICIES OF VARIABLE MESSAGE SIGNS ON EXPRESSWAYS CONSIDERING USER COSTS Peer-reviewed

    Daijiro MIZUTANI, Yosuke KAWASAKI, Koki SATSUKAWA, Takeshi NAKAGAWA, Shogo UMEDA, Rie IKUSHIMA, Masao KUWAHARA

    Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. D3 (Infrastructure Planning and Management)　76　(5)　I_127-I_139　2021/04

    Publisher: Japan Society of Civil Engineers

    DOI： 10.2208/jscejipm.76.5_i_127 　

    eISSN： 2185-6540

  22. STATE-OF-THE-ART IN ASSET MANAGEMENT RESEARCH: STATISTICAL DETERIORATION FORECASTING AND OPTIMISATION OF MANAGEMENT POLICIES Invited

    Daijiro MIZUTANI

    Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. D3 (Infrastructure Planning and Management)　76　(5)　I_1-I_19　2021/04

    Publisher: Japan Society of Civil Engineers

    DOI： 10.2208/jscejipm.76.5_i_1 　

    eISSN： 2185-6540

  23. EFFECT OF PREVENTIVE MAINTENANCE ON BRIDGE EXPANSION JOINTS AGAINST CORROSION AT STEEL GIRDER END PARTS Peer-reviewed

    Kiyoyuki KAITO, Kiyoshi KOBAYASHI, Daijiro MIZUTANI, Yohei NINOMIYA, Ryoji KAWAI

    Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. F4 (Construction and Management)　77　(1)　96-114　2021/04

    Publisher: Japan Society of Civil Engineers

    DOI： 10.2208/jscejcm.77.1_96 　

    eISSN： 2185-6605

  24. 長寿命化技術導入効果の経時変化を考慮した動的劣化ハザードモデル Peer-reviewed

    慈道充, 宇野裕亮, 水谷大二郎, 貝戸清之

    構造工学論文集A　67A　127-138　2021/03

    DOI： 10.11532/structcivil.67A.127 　

  25. A METHOD TO SELECT LARGE SCALE REPAIR SECTIONS OF EXPRESSWAY VIADUCTS BASED ON INITIATION AND PROPAGATION PROCESSES OF FATIGUE CRACKS ON STEEL SLABS Peer-reviewed

    Yohei NINOMIYA, Daijiro MIZUTANI, Mitsuru JIDO, Kiyoyuki KAITO, Kiyoshi KOBAYASHI, Ryo MIYATA

    Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. F4 (Construction and Management)　77　(1)　37-56　2021/02

    Publisher: Japan Society of Civil Engineers

    DOI： 10.2208/jscejcm.77.1_37 　

    eISSN： 2185-6605

  26. Model-based analysis on social acceptability and feasibility of a focused protection strategy against the COVID-19 pandemic Peer-reviewed

    Takashi Akamatsu, Takeshi Nagae, Minoru Osawa, Koki Satsukawa, Takara Sakai, Daijiro Mizutani

    Scientific Reports　11　Article number: 2003　2021/01

    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC

    DOI： 10.1038/s41598-021-81630-9 　

    eISSN： 2045-2322

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    Abstract This paper studies the social acceptability and feasibility of a focused protection strategy against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We propose a control scheme to develop herd immunity while satisfying the following two basic requirements for a viable policy option. The first requirement is social acceptability: the overall deaths should be minimized for social acceptance. The second is feasibility: the healthcare system should not be overwhelmed to avoid various adverse effects. To exploit the fact that the disease severity increases considerably with age and comorbidities, we assume that some focused protection measures for those high-risk individuals are implemented and the disease does not spread within the high-risk population. Because the protected population has higher severity ratios than the unprotected population by definition, the protective measure can substantially reduce mortality in the whole population and also avoid the collapse of the healthcare system. Based on a simple susceptible-infected-recovered model, social acceptability and feasibility of the proposed strategy are summarized into two easily computable conditions. The proposed framework can be applied to various populations for studying the viability of herd immunity strategies against COVID-19. For Japan, herd immunity may be developed by the proposed scheme if $${\mathcal {R } }_0 \le 2.0$$ and the severity rates of the disease are 1/10 times smaller than the previously reported value, although as high mortality as seasonal influenza is expected.

  27. MAKING TEACHING MATERIALS FOR AI UTILIZATION IN CIVIL ENGINEERING Peer-reviewed

    OBAMA Kengo, NAKAMURA Hideaki, KANDA Shinya, MIZUTANI Daijiro, SUGISAKI Koichi

    Intelligence, Informatics and Infrastructure　1　(J1)　261-269　2020/11

    Publisher: Japan Society of Civil Engineers

    DOI： 10.11532/jsceiii.1.J1_261 　

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    <p>In recent years, it is expected to proactively introduce AI technology in the field of civil engineering. However, lack of knowledge related to AI technology makes it difficult to properly grasp the effects of the introduction of AI technology and to accumulate various data for using AI technology, and will be an obstacle to introduce AI technology. This paper, with the goal of making teaching materials, outlines the basic knowledge necessary for understanding AI technology for civil engineers who want to utilize AI technology for various problems in actual operations. Firstly, the histroy of AI is explained in order to properly imagine the AI technology indicated by the word of AI. Then, it is organized the ideas and inputs/outputs necessary to use AI technology. Lastly, through actual cases, understanding of AI technology is expected.</p>

  28. Toward a big data based approach: A review on degradation models for prognosis of critical infrastructure Peer-reviewed

    Guru Prakash, Xian-Xun Yuan, Budhaditya Hazra, Daijiro Mizutani

    Journal of Nondestructive Evaluation, Diagnostics and Prognostics of Engineering Systems　4　(2)　021005　2020/11

    Publisher: ASME International

    DOI： 10.1115/1.4048787 　

    ISSN： 2572-3901

    eISSN： 2572-3898

    More details Close

    Abstract Safety and reliability of large critical infrastructure such as long-span bridges, high-rise buildings, nuclear power plants, high-voltage transmission towers, rotating machinery, and so on, are important for a modern society. Research on reliability and safety analysis started with a “small data” problem dealing with relative scarce lifetime or failure data. Later, degradation modeling that uses performance deterioration, or, condition data collected from in-service inspections or online health monitoring became an important tool for reliability prediction and maintenance planning of highly reliable engineering systems. Over the past decades, a large number of degradation models have been developed to characterize and quantify the underlying degradation mechanism using direct and indirect measurements. Recent advancements in artificial intelligence, remote sensing, big data analytics, and Internet of things are making far-reaching impacts on almost every aspect of our lives. The effect of these changes on the degradation modeling, prognosis, and safety management is interesting questions to explore. This paper presents a comprehensive, forward-looking review of the various degradation models and their practical applications to damage prognosis and management of critical infrastructure. The degradation models are classified into four categories: physics-based, knowledge-based, data-driven, and hybrid approaches.

  29. Network-level synchronized pavement repair and work zone policies: Optimal solution and rule-based approximation Peer-reviewed

    Daijiro Mizutani, Yuto Nakazato, Jinwoo Lee

    Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies　120　102797　2020/11

    Publisher: Elsevier BV

    DOI： 10.1016/j.trc.2020.102797 　

    ISSN： 0968-090X

  30. Can a herd immunity strategy become a viable option against COVID-19? A model-based analysis on social acceptability and feasibility

    Takashi Akamatsu, Takeshi Nagae, Minoru Osawa, Koki Satsukawa, Takara Sakai, Daijiro Mizutani

    medRxiv　2020.05.19.20107524　2020/05

    Publisher: Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory

    DOI： 10.1101/2020.05.19.20107524 　

    More details Close

    <title>Abstract</title>This paper studies the social acceptability and feasibility of “herd immunity” strategies against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). To this end, we propose a control scheme that aims to develop herd immunity while satisfying the following two basic requirements for a viable policy option. The first requirement is social acceptability: the overall deaths should be minimized for social acceptance. The second is feasibility: the healthcare system should not be overwhelmed to avoid diverse adverse effects. Exploiting the fact that the severity of the disease increases considerably with age, the proposed control scheme protects high-risk individuals that mainly consist of the elderly. The protection of high-risk individuals reduces the average severity of the disease in the unprotected population, thereby substantially reducing mortality and avoiding the collapse of the healthcare system. Social acceptability (in terms of the resulting mortality) and feasibility (in terms of the healthcare system capacity) of the proposed herd immunity strategy are summarized into two respective, easily computable conditions by building on a simple susceptible–infected–recovered (SIR) model. For its parsimony, the proposed framework can provide a rule of thumb that applies to various populations for studying the viability of herd immunity strategies against COVID-19. For Japan, herd immunity may be developed by the considered control scheme if <inline-formula><alternatives><inline-graphic xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="20107524v1_inline1.gif" /></alternatives></inline-formula> and the severity rates of the disease are 1/10 times smaller than the previously reported value, although as high mortality as seasonal influenza is expected.

  31. A STOCHASTIC EVOLUTIONARY DYNAMICS OF POTENTIAL GAMES WITH CONTINUOUS AGENTS AND AN ESTIMATION METHOD OF THEIR STATIONARY DISTRIBUTIONS Peer-reviewed

    Takeshi NAGAE, Daijiro MIZUTANI

    Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. D3 (Infrastructure Planning and Management)　76　(2)　138-155　2020/05

    Publisher: Japan Society of Civil Engineers

    DOI： 10.2208/jscejipm.76.2_138 　

    eISSN： 2185-6540

  32. ANALYTICAL SOLUTION OF TRANSITION PROBABILITIES OF THE HIERARCHICAL HIDDEN MARKOV DETERIORATION MODEL Peer-reviewed

    Daijiro MIZUTANI, Wataru UENO

    Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. D3 (Infrastructure Planning and Management)　76　(2)　196-202　2020/05

    Publisher: Japan Society of Civil Engineers

    DOI： 10.2208/jscejipm.76.2_196 　

    eISSN： 2185-6540

  33. INFRASTRUCTURE DETERIORATION PROCESS MODELING BY TIME-SERIES DATA WITH LONG MEMORY Peer-reviewed

    Kiyoshi KOBAYASHI, Kiyoyuki KAITO, Daijiro MIZUTANI, Yasuhito SAKAI

    Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. D3 (Infrastructure Planning and Management)　75　(4)　233-249　2019/11

    Publisher: Japan Society of Civil Engineers

    DOI： 10.2208/jscejipm.75.233 　

    eISSN： 2185-6540

  34. METHODOLOGY TO DETERMINE RAINFALL STANDARDS OF TRAFFIC REGULATION FOR SLOPE DISASTER ON EXPRESSWAYS Peer-reviewed

    Keiji SAKURADANI, Daijiro MIZUTANI, Kengo OBAMA, Kiyoyuki KAITO, Taku ONJI

    Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. F6 (Safety Problem)　75　(1)　12-30　2019/04

    Publisher: Japan Society of Civil Engineers

    DOI： 10.2208/jscejsp.75.12 　

    eISSN： 2185-6621

  35. Variability in an optimal infrastructure management policy by internalization of seismic risk Peer-reviewed

    Daijiro Mizutani

    Journal of Disaster Research　13　(6)　1062-1071　2018/11

    Publisher: Fuji Technology Press Ltd.

    DOI： 10.20965/jdr.2018.p1062 　

    ISSN： 1881-2473

    eISSN： 1883-8030

    More details Close

    During recent years, the possibility that damage at the time of earthquake could change depending on the deterioration condition of infrastructure has been noted through analytical analyses. Faced with such a possibility, management policy should be optimized by internalizing the external elements of earthquake damage, evaluating the appropriateness of management policy for infrastructure, and optimizing the system. In this study, the deterioration process for infrastructure was modelled using the Markov process model, and a methodology to determine the optimal management policy is proposed by considering the two risks: i) the risk that infrastructure fails because of deterioration independent of external elements such as an earthquake, and ii) the risk that changes due to deterioration fails the infrastructure at the time of earthquake. Using an example of the application the following two points are demonstratively shown: i) the optimal management policy would change in the case in which earthquake risk is not considered, and ii) the optimal management policy would change depending on the earthquake occurrence probability in the case in which earthquake risk is considered.

  36. A DISAGGREGATIVE ESTIMATION METHOD OF MARKOV TRANSITION PROBABILITIES WITH DISCONTINUOUS TRANSITION OF CONDITION STATES Peer-reviewed

    Daijiro MIZUTANI

    Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. D3 (Infrastructure Planning and Management)　74　(2)　125-139　2018/04

    Publisher: Japan Society of Civil Engineers

    DOI： 10.2208/jscejipm.74.125 　

    eISSN： 2185-6540

  37. DETERIORATION EVALUATION OF DRAINAGE PAVEMENTS FOCUSING ON LOCAL DAMAGES Peer-reviewed

    Daijiro MIZUTANI, Naoki SUSAKI, Keisuke YASUMURA, Kengo OBAMA, Kiyoyuki KAITO, Yota YAMADA

    Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. E1 (Pavement Engineering)　74　(1)　1-15　2018/01

    Publisher: Japan Society of Civil Engineers

    DOI： 10.2208/jscejpe.74.1 　

    eISSN： 2185-6559

  38. COMPREHENSIVE DETERIORATION EVALUATION OF RC SLABS ON EXPRESSWAY VIADUCTS BASED ON AN AGGREGATIVE DETERIORATION PROCESS MODEL Peer-reviewed

    Daijiro MIZUTANI, Kengo OBAMA, Kiyoyuki KAITO, Akihiro TANAKA

    Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. F4 (Construction and Management)　73　(3)　50-69　2017/12

    Publisher: Japan Society of Civil Engineers

    DOI： 10.2208/jscejcm.73.50 　

    eISSN： 2185-6605

  39. Improving the estimation of Markov transition probabilities using mechanistic-empirical models Peer-reviewed

    Daijiro Mizutani, Nam Lethanh, Bryan T. Adey, Kiyoyuki Kaito

    Frontiers in Built Environment　3　Article 58　2017/10

    Publisher: Frontiers Media SA

    DOI： 10.3389/fbuil.2017.00058 　

    eISSN： 2297-3362

  40. Initial investigations into the use of three heuristic algorithms to determine optimal intervention programs for multiple railway objects Peer-reviewed

    Daijiro Mizutani, Marcel Burkhalter, Bryan T. Adey, Claudio Martani, Vijay Ramdas

    International Journal of Architecture, Engineering and Construction　6　(3)　1-20　2017/09

    Publisher: International Association for Sustainable Development and Management

    DOI： 10.7492/ijaec.2017.013 　

    ISSN： 1911-110X

    eISSN： 1911-1118

  41. Comprehensive deterioration prediction with panel unit data of RC slabs on expressway bridge Peer-reviewed

    Naoki Kitaura, Daijiro Mizutani, Takayuki Matsui, Hirokazu Miyata, Kengo Obama, Kiyoyuki Kaito

    Internet Journal of Society for Social Management Systems　10　(1)　sms15-8426　2016/12

  42. VISUALIZATION OF DISCUSSIONS BETWEEN CLIENTS AND CONTRACTORS ON CONTRACT DISPUTES IN PUBLIC WORKS PROJECTS IN JAPAN Peer-reviewed

    Seiichi HAMADA, Kiyoyuki KAITO, Daijiro MIZUTANI, Eisaku SUGIHARA, Katsuhiko HIRAKAWA

    Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. F4 (Construction and Management)　72　(4)　I_123-I_134　2016/12

    Publisher: Japan Society of Civil Engineers

    DOI： 10.2208/jscejcm.72.i_123 　

    eISSN： 2185-6605

  43. ROLES AND SYSTEM DESIGN OF SPECIALIZED CONSTRUCTORS IN THE MAINTENANCE AND REPAIR OF INFRASTRUCTURE Peer-reviewed

    Seiichi HAMADA, Eisaku SUGIHARA, Kiyoyuki KAITO, Daijiro MIZUTANI

    Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. F4 (Construction and Management)　72　(3)　84-101　2016/10

    Publisher: Japan Society of Civil Engineers

    DOI： 10.2208/jscejcm.72.84 　

    eISSN： 2185-6605

  44. TWO-DIMENSIONAL WEIBULL MIXTURE DETERIORATION HAZARD MODEL Peer-reviewed

    Kiyoshi KOBAYASHI, Daijiro MIZUTANI, Kakuya MATSUSHIMA, Kouji YAMAMOTO, Kiyoyuki KAITO, So SAKAGUCHI

    Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. F4 (Construction and Management)　72　(2)　47-62　2016/07

    Publisher: Japan Society of Civil Engineers

    DOI： 10.2208/jscejcm.72.47 　

    eISSN： 2185-6605

  45. A CONTINUOUS DETERIORATION HAZARD MODEL: APPLICATION TO PAVEMENT STRUCTURE Peer-reviewed

    Daijiro MIZUTANI, Kiyoshi KOBAYASHI, Takayuki KAZATO, Kiyoyuki KAITO, Kakuya MATSUSHIMA

    Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. D3 (Infrastructure Planning and Management)　72　(2)　191-210　2016/06

    Publisher: Japan Society of Civil Engineers

    DOI： 10.2208/jscejipm.72.191 　

    ISSN： 2185-6540

    eISSN： 2185-6540

  46. MULTIDIMENSIONAL INFRASTRUCTURE DETERIORATION PROCESS MODEL Peer-reviewed

    Daijiro MIZUTANI, Kengo OBAMA, Kiyoyuki KAITO, Kiyoshi KOBAYASHI

    Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. D3 (Infrastructure Planning and Management)　72　(1)　34-51　2016/02

    Publisher: Japan Society of Civil Engineers

    DOI： 10.2208/jscejipm.72.34 　

    eISSN： 2185-6540

  47. Extraction of intensively monitored expansion joints by multi-stage mixed Markov hazard model Peer-reviewed

    Daijiro Mizutani, Kiyoyuki Kaito, Kiyoshi Kobayashi

    Internet Journal of Society for Social Management Systems　9　(1)　sms13-5288　2015/12

  48. BAYESIAN ESTIMATION OF MULTI-STAGE WEIBULL DETERIORATION HAZARD MODEL EMPLOYING QUASI MONTE CARLO METHOD Peer-reviewed

    Daijiro MIZUTANI, So SAKAGUCHI, Kiyoyuki KAITO, Kiyoshi KOBAYASHI

    Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. F4 (Construction and Management)　71　(4)　I_23-I_34　2015/12

    Publisher: Japan Society of Civil Engineers

    DOI： 10.2208/jscejcm.71.i_23 　

    eISSN： 2185-6605

  49. AN OPTIMAL INSPECTION/REPLACEMENT POLICY OF EXPRESSWAY TUNNEL LIGHTING SYSTEMS IN CONSIDERATION OF NON-STATIONARY INSPECTION INTERVALS Peer-reviewed

    Satoshi HIRAKAWA, Daijiro MIZUTANI, Kengo OBAMA, Kiyoyuki KAITO

    Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. F4 (Construction and Management)　71　(3)　162-181　2015/10

    Publisher: Japan Society of Civil Engineers

    DOI： 10.2208/jscejcm.71.162 　

    eISSN： 2185-6605

  50. A HIDDEN MARKOV DETERIORATION HAZARD MODEL WITH CHANGE OF INSPECTION CRITERION Peer-reviewed

    Daijiro MIZUTANI, Kiyoyuki KAITO, Kiyoshi KOBAYASHI, Eizo HIDESHIMA, Yota YAMADA, Satoshi HIRAKAWA

    Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. D3 (Infrastructure Planning and Management)　71　(2)　70-89　2015/06

    Publisher: Japan Society of Civil Engineers

    DOI： 10.2208/jscejipm.71.70 　

    eISSN： 2185-6540

  51. A MULTI-HIERARCHICAL MIXED MARKOV DETERIORATION HAZARD MODEL: APPLYING FOR DETERIORATION SPEED EVALUATION FOR JOINT MEMBERS Peer-reviewed

    Kiyoyuki KAITO, Yasuhito SAKAI, Shigeaki TSUKAMOTO, Daijiro MIZUTANI, Kiyoshi KOBAYASHI

    Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. F4 (Construction and Management)　71　(1)　1-18　2015/02

    Publisher: Japan Society of Civil Engineers

    DOI： 10.2208/jscejcm.71.1 　

    eISSN： 2185-6605

  52. AN EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT RULE OF POTHOLES WITH REFERENCE TO WEATHER CONDITIONS Peer-reviewed

    Daijiro MIZUTANI, Kiyoyuki KAITO, Kiyoshi KOBAYASHI, Satoshi HIRAKAWA

    Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. F4 (Construction and Management)　70　(3)　63-80　2014/10

    Publisher: Japan Society of Civil Engineers

    DOI： 10.2208/jscejcm.70.63 　

    eISSN： 2185-6605

  53. POST EVALUATION OF REPAIR EFFECT BY HIERARCHICAL BAYESIAN METHODS Peer-reviewed

    Daijiro MIZUTANI, Kiyoyuki KAITO, Kiyoshi KOBAYASHI

    Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. F4 (Construction and Management)　69　(3)　204-221　2013/12

    Publisher: Japan Society of Civil Engineers

    DOI： 10.2208/jscejcm.69.204 　

    eISSN： 2185-6605

  54. Statistical deterioration prediction model considering the heterogeneity in deterioration rates by hierarchical Bayesian estimation Peer-reviewed

    Daijiro Mizutani, Kodai Matsuoka, Kiyoyuki Kaito

    Structural Engineering International　23　(4)　394-401　2013/11

    Publisher: Informa UK Limited

    DOI： 10.2749/101686613x13627351081515 　

    ISSN： 1016-8664

    eISSN： 1683-0350

  55. Heterogeneity of Deterioration Processes as a Factor in Statistical Deterioration Prediction of Tunnel Luminaires Peer-reviewed

    97　(11)　706-714　2013/11

    Publisher: Illuminating Engineering Society of Japan

    DOI： 10.2150/jieij.97.706 　

    ISSN： 0019-2341

    eISSN： 1349-838X 2185-1506

  56. ESTIMATION OF THE REFLECTANCE DISTRIBUTION IN FALLING OBJECTS ON HIGHWAYS WITH REFERENCE TO THE DIVERSITY OF THEIR ARTICLES Peer-reviewed

    69　(4)　I_39-I_49　2013/11

    Publisher: Japan Society of Civil Engineers

    DOI： 10.2208/jscejcm.69.i_39 　

    eISSN： 2185-6605

  57. Development of Monitoring Systems using Wireless Ad-hoc Comunications and Its Application to Expansion Joints of Highway Bridges Peer-reviewed

    69　(2)　I_605-I_614　2013/09

    Publisher: Japan Society of Civil Engineers

    DOI： 10.2208/jscejam.69.i_605 　

    eISSN： 2185-4661

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Misc. 1

  1. POSSIBILITY OF IMPROVING MANAGEMENT POLICIES FOR EXPRESSWAY FACILITIES BASED ON QUESTIONNAIRE SURVEY OF ON-SITE ENGINEERS

    生嶋理恵, 水谷大二郎, 佐津川功季, 川崎洋輔, 桑原雅夫

    土木計画学研究・講演集(CD-ROM)　64　2021

Research Projects 8

  1. A Stochastic Approach for Empirical Analyses of Urban/Traffic Models with Multiple Equilibria

    Offer Organization: Japan Society for the Promotion of Science

    System: Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research

    Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)

    Institution: Tohoku University

    2022/04/01 - 2025/03/31

  2. Development of high-precision estimation method of uncertainty in Bayesian structure inverse analysis

    Offer Organization: Japan Society for the Promotion of Science

    System: Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research

    Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)

    Institution: Railway Technical Research Institute

    2022/04/01 - 2025/03/31

  3. スリランカにおける下水水質情報に基づいた下水管路劣化予測システムの開発

    佐野 大輔, 水谷 大二郎, Amarasiri Mohan

    Offer Organization: 日本学術振興会

    System: 科学研究費助成事業

    Category: 国際共同研究加速基金(国際共同研究強化(B))

    Institution: 東北大学

    2021/10/07 - 2024/03/31

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    本研究は、スリランカにおいて、微生物の起源を同定する手法であるMicrobial Source Tracking（MST）の手法を応用し、下水管の破損部分から混入する土壌由来の微生物の下水中に占める割合を空間的・時間的に把握することで、下水管破損箇所を推定し、かつ下水管劣化速度の予測に適用するための新規手法を開発することを目指すものである。研究初年度である令和3年度においては、まずスリランカ側カウンターパート（チャンディカ・ガマゲ（ペラデニヤ大学医学部・講師）、及びチャミンダ・サマラスーリヤ（モラトゥワ大学地球資源工学部・講師））とのオンライン打ち合わせを通じ、スリランカ国内における調査地点の確定を行った。希望する調査地点で下水採取を行うために、所轄官庁向けの要望書を作成・提出したところである。さらに、本研究で想定している手法が適用可能であることを確認するために、日本国内で未処理下水を採取し、総DNAを抽出して、細菌の分類に用いられる16s rRNA遺伝子配列の取得を行った。その結果、下水に特徴的な細菌種の16s rRNA遺伝子配列が確実に得られることを確認することに成功し、スリランカで得られたサンプルに適用する準備が整えられた。

  4. 携帯電話位置情報の時系列変動分解に基づく災害レジリエンスの観測・評価手法の開拓

    山口 裕通, 奥村 誠, 塩崎 由人, 水谷 大二郎, 中山 晶一朗

    Offer Organization: 日本学術振興会

    System: 科学研究費助成事業

    Category: 基盤研究(B)

    Institution: 金沢大学

    2020/04/01 - 2024/03/31

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    2020年度＋繰り越し分の2021年度においては，当初の計画通りに以下の研究を遂行した： ・ 近距離行動の異常（災害レジリエンス）を観測・検知するモデルを開発 ・ 既往研究のレビューを実施し，災害レジリエンスの概念整理を行った ・ 2014-2020年までの災害データを購入して，部分的な回復過程の解析をスタートした ただし，新型コロナウイルス感染症の影響により，東京オリンピック等の解析を予定していた事象が2020年のデータのみでは分析できなくなった．さらに，新型コロナウイルスで観測される行動の回復過程は，本研究で開発するモデルを適用して得られる情報として，社会的ニーズも高いものと判断して交付申請の時点で本研究の一環として実施することを決定した．しかし，当初の想定より短期間では行動変化が完結せずに，回復過程の解析にはより長期のデータ入手が必要となった．そのため，研究費の繰り越しをおこない2021年度を含むデータで分析を行った． その結果，概念整理に相当するパートと災害時の移動行動変化を解析した論文を公開するとともに，行動変化を検出するために必要な複数の時系列モデルについて基本モデルの開発をおおむね完了した．このモデルでは，混合ガウスモデルと時系列モデルを組み合わせたものであり，連休等を扱う時系列モデルにさらなる改良が必要であるものの，入力した移動行動の時系列データから災害等の「異常変動」を自動的に抽出するものであり，回復過程の全体を自動的に抽出することができる．モデルの開発成果については複数の学会発表を行っており，2022年度の論文化を目指す．

  5. 動的需要制御によるインフラマネジメントの高度化：劣化制御という新時代を目指して

    水谷 大二郎, 奥村 誠, 山口 裕通

    Offer Organization: 日本学術振興会

    System: 科学研究費助成事業

    Category: 基盤研究(B)

    Institution: 東北大学

    2020/04/01 - 2024/03/31

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    本研究課題では，インフラ群に対するネットワークレベルの維持管理施策最適化問題において，需要制御効果がどの程度存在するのかを体系的に整理することを最終目標としている．これまでの研究により，小規模なインフラネットワークにおいて，動的需要制御効果を検証し，具体的なインフラアセットマネジメント問題（インフラ最適廃棄問題）において，その効果を定量化した．本年度は，これらの研究成果を大規模ネットワークに展開することを予定し，検証を開始したが，その際に生じる組合せ爆発問題により，大規模ネットワークへの展開が容易ではないことが確認された．そのため，次年度実施予定の大規模ネットワークにおける動的需要制御効果の検証に繋げるべく，組合せ爆発問題の解消を具体的な研究テーマとして設定し，複数の方法論を提案した．また，本研究課題実施により副次的に生じた種々のインフラアセットマネジメント問題についても，それを解決するような方法論を提案した．

  6. 社会便益を考慮した高速道路施設の維持管理高度化に関する研究

    桑原 雅夫, 水谷 大二郎, 佐津川 功季, 川崎 洋輔, 熊谷 靖彦, 岡 宏一

    Offer Organization: 日本学術振興会

    System: 科学研究費助成事業

    Category: 基盤研究(A)

    Institution: 東北大学

    2019/04/01 - 2023/03/31

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    （１）生存確率の推定手法の提案：計測データには生存開始時刻（運用開始時期），故障時刻，観測期間が不明のデータが含まれており，これらの打切りデータも含めて生存確率を推定する手法を提案した．既往手法および提案手法の数学的な類似性，計測方法による推定手法の選択について考察を行うとともに，ETC機器，トンネル照明取付金具の生存確率の推定を行った． （２）故障原因別，環境要因別の生存確率の推定：故障原因別に生存確率を推定する手法の提案を行い，ETC機器の故障原因別の生存確率を推定した．また，ETC機器とトンネル照明機器について，生存確率が環境要因（凍結防止剤，海による塩害，利用交通量）によって，どのような影響を受けるのかを分析した． （３）点検戦略の評価：推定した生存確率に基づいて，点検戦略（頻度，間隔）の評価を行った．具体的には，生存確率に従う生存期間シミュレーションを用いて，現在の点検方法および新たな点検戦略について，故障件数，点検回数，補修回数について評価を行い，点検戦略の見直しの可能性について知見を得た． （４）故障時や定期点検時に必要な交換部品の配備計画：故障時に必要な予備品について，利用者損失を考慮した社会的損失を最小化するような備蓄拠点と予備品の配置パターンの最適化問題を定式化した．数値計算を行った結果，空間的な拠点の配置，予備品の配置数だけでなく，時間的な配置が重要となりうることが示唆された． （５）維持管理施策改善のためのスクリーニング手法：現場技術者へのアンケート調査により設備の特性を把握し，設備の種類ごとに適切な維持管理施策を決定するための方法論を提案した．NEXCO関西支社管内の41種類の装置機器について調査を実施し，個々の装置機器に対して，故障時の利用者への影響，故障の予兆の有無を把握することにより，適切な維持管理施策が決定できることを確認した．

  7. A stochastic approach for empirical study of urban transport models with multiple equilibria

    Nagae Takeshi

    Offer Organization: Japan Society for the Promotion of Science

    System: Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research

    Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)

    Institution: Tohoku University

    2019/04/01 - 2022/03/31

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    In recent years, the structure of urban and transportation systems has been changing dramatically with the spread of new mobility and transportation services such as the shared mobility and the food delivery, as well as new lifestyles and work styles such as telework and multi-location living. For the policy making and its evaluation in consideration of such irreversible and structural changes in urban and transportation systems, we proposed a framework for quantitatively describing and analyzing the stochastic stable state of an equilibrium model of urban and transportation systems, assuming the existence of multiple equilibria. We also developed an efficient method for estimating the stationary distribution that characterizes the stable state.

  8. Development of infrastructure management methodologies with consistent intervention rules

    Mizutani Daijiro

    Offer Organization: Japan Society for the Promotion of Science

    System: Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research

    Category: Grant-in-Aid for Early-Career Scientists

    Institution: Tohoku University

    2018/04/01 - 2020/03/31

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    For public infrastructure, the managers need to conduct appropriate asset management to maximise the value of the infrastructure. In general, the infrastructure is composed of multiple elements (e.g., bridge members, pavement sections). In this study, to determine repair and work zone policies for the infrastructure, we have developed a methodology to consider simultaneous repair of adjacent elements in a single work zone to further reduce the life cycle costs. Specifically, we considered problems of how many elements should be repaired within a single work zone, how far those elements should be located each other, and how much deteriorated an element should be to be identified as an element to repair, and then proposed a methodology to derive the decision-making criteria. The proposed methodology is demonstrated by applying it to a determination problem of repair and work zone policies of real-scale pavement systems.

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