Details of the Researcher

PHOTO

Shinji Toda
Section
International Research Institute of Disaster Science
Job title
Professor
Degree

  • 博士（理学）（東北大学）

  • 理学修士（東北大学）

Professional Memberships 7

  • Seismological Society of America

  • American Geophysical Union

  • Japan Association for Quaternary Research

  • 日本応用地質学会

  • Geological Society of Japan

  • Japanese Society for Active Fault Studies

  • Seismological Society of Japan

︎Show all ︎Show first 5

Research Interests 3

  • 地震学

  • 活断層研究

  • 地震地質

Research Areas 1

  • Natural sciences / Solid earth science / Earthquake geology

Awards 4

  1. 日本活断層学会論文賞

    2020/11　日本活断層学会　熊本地震地表断層の阿蘇カルデラ内の完新世活動履歴

  2. EPS 2016 highlighted papers

    2017/02　Slip-partitioned surface ruptures for the Mw 7.0 16 April 2016 Kumamoto, Japan, earthquake

  3. 日本地質学会仙台大会優秀ポスター賞

    2013/09/14　日本地質学会　紀伊半島北西部における微小地震クラスターの分布に対する地質構造との関係

  4. 平成24年度日本活断層学会論文賞

    2012/11/16　日本活断層学会　論文賞

Papers 141

  1. Landscape changes caused by the 2024 Noto Peninsula earthquake in Japan. International-journal

    Yo Fukushima, Daisuke Ishimura, Naoya Takahashi, Yoshiya Iwasa, Luca C Malatesta, Takayuki Takahashi, Chi-Hsien Tang, Keisuke Yoshida, Shinji Toda

    Science advances　10　(49)　eadp9193　2024/12/06

    DOI： 10.1126/sciadv.adp9193 　

    More details Close

    Landscapes are shaped by tectonic, climatic, and surface processes over geological timescales, but we rarely witness the events of marked landscape change. The moment magnitude 7.5 Noto Peninsula earthquake in central Japan was caused by a large thrust faulting, up to nearly 10 meters of slip, that expanded more than 150 kilometers along the fault zone. The deformation field reconstructed from satellite data and field surveys reveals up to 4.4 meters of uplift and associated coastal advance along the entire northern coast of the peninsula, meter-scale systematic movement of the mountain slopes consistent with slip on flexural faults, and activation of secondary inland faults, suggesting synchronized ruptures. The findings show excellent consistency between the coseismic deformation and geomorphic features and provide a vivid example of the role of a major earthquake in landscape formation.

  2. LATE QUATERNARY ACTIVITY OF THE HARAMACHI SEGMENT OF THE FUTABA FAULT IN NORTHEAST JAPAN THROUGH TOPOGRAPHIC ANAGLYPH IMAGES AND BOREHOLE CORE SEDIMENT ANALYSIS

    Anggraini Rizkita Puji, Naoya Takahashi, Shinji Toda

    Rudarsko-geološko-naftni zbornik　38　(2)　157-174　2023

    Publisher: Faculty of Mining, Geology and Petroleum Engineering

    DOI： 10.17794/rgn.2023.2.12 　

    eISSN： 1849-0409

    More details Close

    The Haramachi Fault segment in the northeastern part of Honshu Island, Japan, has mainly sinistral fault movements with minor reverse component within the Futaba Fault Zone in the northeastern Japan arc. The 2011 Mw 9.0 earthquake occurred off the Pacific coast of Tohoku which caused large crustal deformations. Despite being the closest active fault to the epicenter, very limited investigation has been conducted on the Futaba Fault Zone. Previous studies used smaller scale topographic maps and fault activity was estimated only from trenching and borehole investigations in the central part of the Haramachi Fault segment. Thus, geometry, kinematic, and recent tectonic activity of the fault segment is not well identified, especially in northern part. In this study, we use a combination of high-resolution DEMs (2-m and 5-m mesh), several types of topographic anaglyph images (slope, negative and positive openness), and conducted field survey to confirm remote sensing interpretation. Subtle surface expression of deformation associated with active faulting, such as deformed terrace risers, deflected drainages, and small fault scarps can now be identified more clearly. Several new fault strands in the northern part of the segment were found supported by fault outcrops found in the field confirming the recent activity of the fault system. The new estimation of the total length of the Haramachi segment produced from the approach of this study yields 25 km, which is capable of producing Mw 6.5 – 7.0 or Mjma 7.2 earthquakes if ruptures were to occur altogether in the future. Moreover, a shallow borehole survey and radiocarbon dating from the soil organic material has revealed the minimal timing estimation of the most recent faulting in the Haramachi segment to be 3694 ± 24 BP. This research provides a revised understanding of active fault distribution and deformation associated with the Haramachi segment and validates the timing of the most recent faulting event more broadly.

  3. Long-term uplift pattern recorded by rivers across contrasting lithology: Insights into earthquake recurrence in the epicentral area of the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake, Japan

    Naoya Takahashi, J. Bruce H. Shyu, Chia-Yu Chen, Shinji Toda

    Geomorphology　108492-108492　2022/10

    Publisher: Elsevier BV

    DOI： 10.1016/j.geomorph.2022.108492 　

    ISSN： 0169-555X

  4. Surface Ruptures and Tectonic Geomorphology Along and Around the Idenokuchi Fault

    Heitaro Kaneda, Shinji Toda, Daisuke Ishimura, Yasuhiro Kumahara, Hideaki Goto, Shinsuke Okada, Motoya Kobayashi

    Surface Ruptures Associated with the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake Sequence in Southwest Japan　151-179　2022

    Publisher: Springer Nature Singapore

    DOI： 10.1007/978-981-19-1150-7_12 　

    ISSN： 2524-3829

    eISSN： 2524-3837

  5. Surface Ruptures Along the Central–Northern Part of the Futagawa Fault

    Yasuhiro Kumahara, Shinji Toda, Hiroyuki Tsutsumi, Hideaki Goto, Daisuke Ishimura, Shinsuke Okada, Kyoko Kagohara, Heitaro Kaneda

    Surface Ruptures Associated with the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake Sequence in Southwest Japan　89-139　2022

    Publisher: Springer Nature Singapore

    DOI： 10.1007/978-981-19-1150-7_10 　

    ISSN： 2524-3829

    eISSN： 2524-3837

  6. Influence of crustal lithology and the thermal state on microseismicity in the Wakayama region, southern Honshu, Japan

    Sumire Maeda, Shinji Toda, Toru Matsuzawa, Makoto Otsubo, Takumi Matsumoto

    Earth, Planets and Space　73　(1)　2021/12

    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC

    DOI： 10.1186/s40623-021-01503-3 　

    eISSN： 1880-5981

    More details Close

    Abstract Here we investigate the influence of the lithology and thermal state of the upper crust on earthquake distributions beneath the Wakayama region, southern Honshu, Japan, to better understand the influence of crustal conditions on regional seismogenesis. The earthquakes are concentrated in the deeper sections of mafic belts and shallower sections of pelitic belts, based on a comparison of relocated hypocenters and estimated subsurface geological structures. We compare the frictional properties of pelitic rocks and basalt, as obtained from petrological experiments, with the hypocenter depth distributions in pelitic and mafic belts to assess the control of crustal lithology on the depth extent of regional seismicity. The earthquake distributions are consistent with the temperature ranges over which the respective rock types are expected to exhibit a velocity-weakening behavior, based on the petrological experiments. The results suggest that the occurrence of shallow intraplate earthquakes is controlled by the temperature- and lithology-dependent friction of the upper crust.

  7. 日奈久断層北端部で確認された熊本地震の地表余効すべり Peer-reviewed

    遠田晋次, 鳥井真之, 小俣雅志, 三五大輔, 石澤尭史

    活断層研究　(54)　39-56　2021/08

  8. Tests of Remote Dynamic Aftershock Triggering by Small Mainshocks Using Taiwan’s Earthquake Catalog Peer-reviewed

    Wei Peng, Shinji Toda

    Seismological Research Letters　92　(4)　2464-2476　2021/02/01

    Publisher: Seismological Society of America (SSA)

    DOI： 10.1785/0220200384 　

    ISSN： 0895-0695

    eISSN： 1938-2057

    More details Close

    <title>Abstract</title> To understand earthquake interaction and forecast time-dependent seismic hazard, it is essential to determine which static or dynamic stress change due to a mainshock plays a major role in triggering its aftershocks and subsequent mainshocks. Using small mainshocks (2≤M&amp;lt;3) and their aftershocks, Felzer and Brodsky (2006) argued that mainshock induced dynamic stress change is responsible for earthquake triggering in a form of power-law decay within 50 km. Richards-Dinger et al. (2010), however, studied the foreshock decay and claimed that mainshock had no effect at distances outside its static stress triggering range, which required an alternative explanation. We tested these hypotheses using Taiwan’s earthquake catalog by taking advantage of its lack of large events and the absence of active volcano and associated significant seismic swarm. In examining earthquakes occurring in 1994–2010, following Felzer and Brodsky’s method, we found a linear aftershock density with a power-law decay of −1.12±0.38 that is very similar to the one seen in Felzer and Brodsky (2006). None of the mainshock–aftershock pairs were associated with an M 7 rupture event or M 6 event. We further demonstrated that the density decay in a short time period is more likely a randomized behavior than mainshock–aftershock triggering. These pairs were located mostly in high geothermal gradient areas, which are probably triggered by a small-scale aseismic process.

  9. Evaluating variability in coseismic slips of paleoearthquakes from an incomplete slip history: an example from displaced terrace flights across the Kamishiro fault, central Japan Peer-reviewed

    Naoya Takahashi, Shinji Toda

    Progress in Earth and Planetary Science　8　(1)　2021/02

    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC

    DOI： 10.1186/s40645-021-00407-w 　

    eISSN： 2197-4284

    More details Close

    <title>Abstract</title>Examining the regularity in slip over seismic cycles leads to an understanding of earthquake recurrence and provides the basis for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. Systematic analysis of three-dimensional paleoseismic trenches and analysis of offset markers along faults reveal slip history. Flights of displaced terraces have also been used to study slips of paleoearthquakes when the number of earthquakes contributing to the observed displacement of a terrace is known. This study presents a Monte Carlo-based approach to estimating slip variability using displaced terraces when a detailed paleoseismic record is not available. First, we mapped fluvial terraces across the Kamishiro fault, which is an intra-plate reverse fault in central Japan, and systematically measured the cumulative dip slip of the mapped terraces. By combining these measurements with the age of the paleoearthquakes, we estimated the amount of dip slip for the penultimate event (PE) and antepenultimate event (APE) to be 1.6 and 3.4 m, respectively. The APE slip was nearly three times larger than the most recent event of 2014 (Mw 6.2): 1.2 m. This suggests that the rupture length of the APE was much longer than that of the 2014 event and the entire Kamishiro fault ruptured with adjacent faults during the APE. Thereafter, we performed the Monte Carlo simulations to explore the possible range of the coefficient of variation for slip per event (COVs). The simulation considered all the possible rupture histories in terms of the number of events and their slip amounts. The resulting COVs typically ranged between 0.3 and 0.54, indicating a large variation in the slip per event of the Kamishiro fault during the last few thousand years. To test the accuracy of our approach, we performed the same simulation to a fault whose slip per event was well constrained. The result showed that the error in the COVs estimate was less than 0.15 in 86% of realizations, which was comparable to the uncertainty in COVs derived from a paleoseismic trenching. Based on the accuracy test, we conclude that the Monte Carlo-based approach should help assess the regularity of earthquakes using an incomplete paleoseismic record.

  10. Repeated triggered ruptures on a distributed secondary fault system: an example from the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake, southwest Japan

    Daisuke Ishimura, Hiroyuki Tsutsumi, Shinji Toda, Yo Fukushima, Yasuhiro Kumahara, Naoya Takahashi, Toshihiko Ichihara, Keita Takada

    Earth, Planets and Space　73　(1)　2021/01

    DOI： 10.1186/s40623-021-01371-x 　

    eISSN： 1880-5981

  11. 余震はいつまで続くか

    遠田晋次

    地震ジャーナル　(70)　11-19　2020/12

  12. Encyclopedia of Geology 2nd Edition, Tectonics and Structural Geology: Japan and Korean Peninsula Peer-reviewed

    Simon Richard Wallis, Fukashi Maeno, Shinji Toda

    Encyclopedia of Geology 2nd Edition　526-543　2020/12

  13. 2019年カリフォルニア州リッジクレスト地震の概要と最近の地震断層調査の動向 Peer-reviewed

    高橋直也, 内田嗣人, 池田倫治, 遠田晋次

    活断層研究　(53)　51-65　2020/12

  14. Wide-area seismicity anomalies before the 2011 Tohoku–Oki earthquake Peer-reviewed

    Takao Kumazawa, Yosihiko Ogata, Shinji Toda

    Geophysical Journal International　223　(2)　1304-1312　2020/09/17

    Publisher: Oxford University Press (OUP)

    DOI： 10.1093/gji/ggaa356 　

    ISSN： 0956-540X

    eISSN： 1365-246X

    More details Close

    <title>Summary</title> This study investigates various types of seismicity changes that occurred in several regions in and around the Tohoku District, prior to the 2011 M9.0 Tohoku–Oki earthquake. In particular, we focus on the seismicity anomalies that were revealed not only in inland local areas but also in a wide area for several years before the 2008 M7.2 earthquake in the inland Tohoku District. We reconsider these seismicity anomalies in nearly identical regions, which persisted in the extended period up until the M9 mega event. This suggests that the stress changes due to transient slow slips on the Pacific Plate boundary are more likely to be the cause of the wider seismicity changes than the slips beneath the inland earthquake. To confirm the significance, we use the two-stage stationary epidemic-type aftershock sequence model and explore the relationship between seismicity changes and stress rate changes due to slow slip by means of global navigation satellite system geodetic observations.

  15. Long‐ and Short‐Term Stress Interaction of the 2019 Ridgecrest Sequence and Coulomb‐Based Earthquake Forecasts Peer-reviewed

    Shinji Toda, Ross S. Stein

    Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America　110　1765-1780　2020/07

  16. 令和元年山形県沖の地震ーなぜ日本海東縁で大地震が発生するのかー Invited

    遠田晋次

    ベース設計資料，土木編　184　46-50　2020/03

  17. Coulomb pre-stress and fault bends are ignored yet vital factors for earthquake triggering and hazard Peer-reviewed

    Z. K. Mildon, G. P. Roberts, J. P. Faure Walker, S. Toda

    Nature Communications　10　(1)　2019/12

    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC

    DOI： 10.1038/s41467-019-10520-6 　

    eISSN： 2041-1723

  18. 熊本地震地表地震断層の阿蘇カルデラ内の完新世活動履歴―南阿蘇村黒川地区トレンチ調査― Peer-reviewed

    遠田晋次, 鳥井真之, 奥野 充, 今野明咲香, 小野大輝, 高橋直也

    活断層研究　(51)　13-25　2019/12

  19. The 1596 Keicho Earthquake, a 5‐Day, 300‐km‐Long Sequential Rupture Event in the Median Tectonic Line Fault Zone, Southwestern Japan Peer-reviewed

    Michiharu Ikeda, Shinji Toda, Kozo Onishi, Naoki Nishizaka, Shunsuke Suzuki

    Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth　124　(8)　8376-8403　2019/08

    Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)

    DOI： 10.1029/2018jb017264 　

    ISSN： 2169-9313

    eISSN： 2169-9356

  20. 3D Surface Displacement and Surface Ruptures Associated with the 2014 Mw 6.2 Nagano Earthquake Using Differential Lidar Peer-reviewed

    Daisuke Ishimura, Shinji Toda, Sakae Mukoyama, Shin’ichi Homma, Kyoko Yamaguchi, Naoya Takahashi

    Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America　109　(2)　780-796　2019/04

    Publisher: Seismological Society of America (SSA)

    DOI： 10.1785/0120180020 　

    ISSN： 0037-1106

    eISSN： 1943-3573

  21. Evaluation of short active faults reflected from distributed minor surface breaks found at recent inland large earthquakes including the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake

    Toda Shinji, Ishimura Daisuke

    The Quaternary Research (Daiyonki-Kenkyu)　58　(2)　121-136　2019

    Publisher: 日本第四紀学会

    ISSN： 0418-2642

    More details Close

    &lt;p&gt;Inland large earthquakes occur not only on major active faults but also in areas no active fault and/or minor short fault mapped. It leads a conservative evaluation that seismogenic fault up to ～20km is hidden or slightly truncated by the surface, and an M～7 earthquake is assigned on each short fault. Based on field investigation and InSAR analysis for the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake, we here counter-argue that some of such minor and low-slip-rate faults might have been developed by insignificant but frequent slips triggered by nearby large earthquakes. Another unique case possibly contributes to better evaluation of such short faults is the recent repeating M～6 earthquakes occurred on March 19, 2011 (M6.1) and November 22, 2016 (M6.3) at Ibaraki-ken-hokubu, in northern Kanto region, Japan. Both shocks have shared the same 4-km-long fault based on InSAR images and field survey. It enables us to interpret some of the short active faults might have been also developed by more frequent slip at only upper seismogenic layer, not involving the entire seismogenic layer, due to M～6 earthquakes. Together with other cases, we discuss the classification of short active faults with regards to slip rate, erosion rate, and seismogenesis, and then tentatively conclude that short active faults not only generate an independent single M～7 earthquake but also behave aseismically or seismically influenced by neighboring major faults.&lt;/p&gt;

  22. 2018年大阪府北部地震の周辺活断層と地震活動への影響

    遠田晋次

    地震ジャーナル　(66)　9-21　2018/12

  23. Millennial-scale crustal movements inferred from Holocene sedimentary succession of the Omoto plain, northern Sanriku coast, Northeast Japan: Relevance for modeling megathrust earthquake cycles Peer-reviewed

    Yuichi Niwa, Toshihiko Sugai, Yoshiaki Matsushima, Shinji Toda

    Quaternary International　519　10-24　2018/11

    DOI： 10.1016/j.quaint.2018.11.009 　

    ISSN： 1040-6182

    eISSN： 1873-4553

  24. 熊本県益城町寺中における2016年熊本地震断層のトレンチ調査 Peer-reviewed

    堤 浩之, 遠田晋次, 後藤秀昭, 熊原康博, 石村大輔, 高橋直也, 谷口 薫, 小俣雅志, 郡谷順英, 五味雅宏, 浅野公之, 岩田知孝

    活断層研究　(49)　31-39　2018/11

  25. Extremely early recurrence of intraplate fault rupture following the Tohoku-Oki earthquake Peer-reviewed

    Yo Fukushima, Shinji Toda, Satoshi Miura, Daisuke Ishimura, Jun’ichi Fukuda, Tomotsugu Demachi, Kenji Tachibana

    Nature Geoscience　11　(10)　777-781　2018/10/01

    DOI： 10.1038/s41561-018-0201-x 　

    ISSN： 1752-0894

    eISSN： 1752-0908

  26. Tsunami hazard evaluation for Kuwait and Arabian Gulf due to Makran Subduction Zone and Subaerial landslides Peer-reviewed

    Panon Latcharote, Khaled Al-Salem, Anawat Suppasri, Tanuspong Pokavanich, Shinji Toda, Yogeesha Jayaramu, Abdullah Al-Enezi, Alanoud Al-Ragum, Fumihiko Imamura

    Natural Hazards　93　(S1)　127-152　2018/09

    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC

    DOI： 10.1007/s11069-017-3097-7 　

    ISSN： 0921-030X

    eISSN： 1573-0840

  27. Why Aftershock Duration Matters for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment Peer-reviewed

    Shinji Toda, Ross S. Stein

    Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America　108　(3A)　1414-1426　2018/06

    Publisher: Seismological Society of America (SSA)

    DOI： 10.1785/0120170270 　

    ISSN： 0037-1106

    eISSN： 1943-3573

  28. Landslides triggered by the 2016 Mj 7.3 Kumamoto, Japan, earthquake Peer-reviewed

    Chong Xu, Siyuan Ma, Zhibiao Tan, Chao Xie, Shinji Toda, Xueqiang Huang

    Landslides　15　(3)　551-564　2018/03

    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC

    DOI： 10.1007/s10346-017-0929-1 　

    ISSN： 1612-510X

    eISSN： 1612-5118

  29. Complex microseismic activity and depth-dependent stress field changes in Wakayama, southwestern Japan Peer-reviewed

    Maeda Sumire, Matsuzawa Toru, Toda Shinji, Yoshida Keisuke, Katao Hiroshi

    EARTH PLANETS AND SPACE　70　(1)　2018/02/07

    DOI： 10.1186/s40623-018-0788-6 　

    ISSN： 1880-5981

    eISSN： 1880-5981

  30. リモートセンシング技術の進展によって変わりつつある活断層像

    遠田晋次

    地震工学誌　33　22-25　2018

  31. Near-surface geometry and average vertical deformation rate of the Kamishiro fault in the Itoigawa-Shizuoka Tectonic Line active fault system, revealed from a borehole survey at Kamishiro, Hakuba village, Nagano prefecture, Japan

    Niwa Yuichi, Toda Shinji, Ishimura Daisuke, Mori Yoshiki, Omata Masashi

    Active Fault Research　2018　(49)　1-16　2018

    Publisher: 一般社団法人 日本活断層学会

    ISSN： 0918-1024

    More details Close

    &lt;p&gt; We conducted drilling survey to re-examine near surface geometry and a rate of the vertical deformation on the Kamishiro fault, northern part of the Itoigawa-Shizuoka Tectonic Line active fault system (ISTL), central Japan. 40- and 45-m-long core samples, extracted from the hanging wall of the Kamishiro fault, consist of fluvial sediments (alternation of sand-mud and sand-gravel layers). In the two cores, bedding plane is almost horizontal at uppermost part, gently sloped at upper to middle part, upstanding at lower part, and mildly sloped or horizontal at lowest part, respectively. The core samples enable us to estimate horizon of penetration of the Kamishiro fault on the basis of change with sharp boundary from upstanding strata older than 30,000 cal BP to underlying mildly sloped or horizontally laminated strata younger than 30,000 cal BP. Geologic cross-section on the basis of correlation of both the two cores with previously known stratigraphy, indicates that estimated fault is a reverse fault with dip of about 30 degrees. Altitude of facies boundaries and over fifty radiocarbon ages show cumulative vertical displacements of 14-20 m during the past 10,000 years, indicating average vertical displacement rate of 1.4-2.0 mm/yr. And, the net slip rate is estimated to be 2.8-4.0 mm/yr by using 30 degree dip of fault. The average vertical displacement rate in this study is smaller than that in the previous study where data of lithofacies and radiocarbon age is insufficient on the upthrown side. Because the Kamishiro fault is associated with drag folding near the surface, previously reported net slip rate during the past 10,000 years is considered to be underestimated. The largeness of net slip rate in this study relative to previously estimated rate is consistent with the forecast that the previous estimation is underestimated. The lowness of Holocene average vertical displacement rate, compared with previously estimated rate during the past 28,000 years, suggests decrease in activity of the Kamishiro fault during the past 10,000 years. And, the Holocene average vertical displacement rate shows that average recurrence interval is 150-360 years assuming that faulting with vertical displacement of 0.3 to 0.5 m as same as that at 2014 Nagano-ken-hokubu earthquake has repeated. This interval is shorter than that obtained from previous paleoseismic study, implying unknown paleoseismic event with small vertical displacement can be detected through reconsideration of paleoseismic survey.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

  32. Coulomb Stress Evolution History as Implication on the Pattern of Strong Earthquakes along the Xianshuihe-Xiaojiang Fault System, China Peer-reviewed

    Bing Yan, Shinji Toda, Aiming Lin

    Journal of Earth Science　29　(2)　427-440　2018

    DOI： 10.1007/s12583-018-0840-2 　

  33. Geomorphic features of surface ruptures associated with the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake in and around the downtown of Kumamoto City, and implications on triggered slip along active faults 2016 Kumamoto earthquake sequence and its impact on earthquake science and hazard assessment Manabu Hashimoto, Martha Savage, Takuya Nishimura and Haruo Horikawa 4. Seismology Peer-reviewed

    Hideaki Goto, Hiroyuki Tsutsumi, Shinji Toda, Yasuhiro Kumahara

    Earth, Planets and Space　69　(1)　2017/12/01

    Publisher: Springer Berlin

    DOI： 10.1186/s40623-017-0603-9 　

    ISSN： 1880-5981 1343-8832

    eISSN： 1880-5981

  34. 長野県，青木湖の湖成堆積物中に新たに見出された十和田—中掫テフラ Peer-reviewed

    石村大輔, 吉永佑一, 山田 圭太郎, 原口 強, 遠田晋次

    第四紀研究　56　265-270　2017/12

    DOI： 10.4116/jaqua.56.265 　

  35. Subsidence along the central to southern Sanriku coast, northeast Japan, near the source region of the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake, estimated from the Holocene sedimentary succession along a ria coast Peer-reviewed

    Yuichi Niwa, Toshihiko Sugai, Yoshiaki Matsushima, Shinji Toda

    QUATERNARY INTERNATIONAL　456　1-16　2017/10

    DOI： 10.1016/j.quaint.2017.08.008 　

    ISSN： 1040-6182

    eISSN： 1873-4553

  36. Vertical slip rate on a normal fault c-ruputured with the Futagwa fault at the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake: a fault outcrop at Shimojin, Mashiki Town in Kumamoto Prefecture. Peer-reviewed

    Active Fault Research　(46)　27-32　2017/03

    Publisher:

    ISSN： 0918-1024

  37. Detailed locations of surface ruptures and coseismic deformation revealed from differential LiDAR analysis

    Ishimura Daisuke, Toda Shinji, Mukoyama Sakae, Homma Shin'ichi, Yamaguchi Kyoko

    Proceedings of the General Meeting of the Association of Japanese Geographers　2017　100125-100125　2017

    Publisher: The Association of Japanese Geographers

    DOI： 10.14866/ajg.2017s.0_100125 　

  38. 2016年熊本地震時に出現した熊本県阿蘇市宮地周辺の地表地震断層とピット壁面での変位の上方減衰 Peer-reviewed

    石村大輔, 遠田晋次, 市原季彦, 高橋直也, 今野明咲香, 佐藤隼人

    活断層研究　(47)　9-16　2017

  39. Geomorphic features of surface ruptures associated with the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake in and around the downtown of Kumamoto City, and implications on triggered slip along active faults, Peer-reviewed

    Goto, H, Tsutsumi, H, Toda, S, Kumahara, Y

    Earth, Planets and Space　doi 10.1186/s40623-017-0603-9　2017

  40. Evaluating models of Coulomb stress transfer: Is variable fault geometry important? Peer-reviewed

    Zoe K. Mildon, Shinji Toda, Joanna P. Faure Walker, Gerald P. Roberts

    Geophysical Research Letters　43　(24)　12407-12414　2016/12/28

    Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)

    DOI： 10.1002/2016gl071128 　

    ISSN： 0094-8276

    eISSN： 1944-8007

  41. Slip-partitioned surface ruptures for the Mw 7.0 16 April 2016 Kumamoto, Japan, earthquake Peer-reviewed

    Toda Shinji, Kaneda Heitaro, Okada Shinsuke, Ishimura Daisuke, Mildon Zoe K

    EARTH PLANETS AND SPACE　68　(1)　2016/11/22

    DOI： 10.1186/s40623-016-0560-8 　

    ISSN： 1880-5981

    eISSN： 1880-5981

  42. Earthquakes in Japan (Chapter 8) Peer-reviewed

    Shinji Toda

    Geology of Japan　371-408　2016/09

  43. （総説）内陸地震による地表断層変位とその予測

    遠田晋次

    電力土木　381　6-11　2016/01

  44. Tsunami Hazard Assessment for the Arabian Gulf from Earthquakes and Surface Landslides

    Anawat SUPPASRI, Panon LATCHAROTE, Tanuspong POKAVANICH, Khaled AL-SALEM, Abdullah Al-Enezi, Shinji TODA, Fumihiko IMAMURA

    Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B2 (Coastal Engineering)　72　(2)　I_1675-I_1680　2016

    Publisher: Japan Society of Civil Engineers

    DOI： 10.2208/kaigan.72.i_1675 　

    ISSN： 1884-2399

    eISSN： 1883-8944

    More details Close

    &nbsp;The Arabian Gulf (also known as Persian Gulf) region is one of the most important oil producers to fuel the world and most of the population is located along the coasts. The present study aimed, for the first time, to carry out some preliminary assessment of the tsunami hazards in the Arabian Gulf region using numerical model. This study tsunamis generated by submarine earthquakes with the earthquake magnitude (Mw) of 8.3-9.0 along the Makran Subduction Zone (MSZ) and surface landslides with the volume of 0.5-1.0 km3 along Iranian coast inside the Arabian Gulf. TUNAMI model was applied in this study to predict the tsunami propagation. The model adopts the staggered leap-frog scheme to solve shallow water equations describing nonlinear long-wave theory. GEBCO 30 arc-second grid data was used as bathymetry and topography data for tsunami numerical simulation. This size of the computational grid was ascertained by many previous studies for its suitability in evaluating tsunami hazards in this region. For surface landslides, tsunami generation was simulated using a two-layer numerical model developed by solving nonlinear long-wave equations within two interfacing layers with appropriate kinematic and dynamic boundary conditions at seabed, interface, and water surface. In case of the earthquakes along MSZ, Mw 8.3 has low impact to locations inside the Arabian Gulf. Mw 8.6 has considerable impact mainly at the Gulf entrance meanwhile Mw 9.0 has high impact at the Gulf entrance and negligible impact for the whole Gulf region. In case of the surface landslides inside the Arabian Gulf, the impact is rather local but major near the sources. Detailed estimation of landslide volume, tsunami simulation using very fine topography and bathymetry data and coupling tide and tsunami wave modeling will be considered for the future works.

  45. 2014Mw 6.0 South Napa Earthquake Triggered Exotic Seismic Clusters near Several Major Faults Peer-reviewed

    Shinji Toda, Ross S. Stein

    Seismological Research Letters　86　(6)　1593-1602　2015/11

    Publisher: Seismological Society of America (SSA)

    DOI： 10.1785/0220150102 　

    ISSN： 0895-0695

    eISSN： 1938-2057

  46. Middle to late Holocene surface-rupturing history of the Matsumoto-bonchi-toen fault, a northern segment of the Itoigawa-Shizuoka Tectonic Line active fault system revealed from a trench excavation survey at Ikeda Kemi-kita site, Nagano Prefecture, central Japan Peer-reviewed

    (43)　35-52　2015/09

    Publisher:

    ISSN： 0918-1024

  47. The First Surface-Rupturing Earthquake in 20 Years on a HERP Active Fault is Not Characteristic: The 2014 M-W, 6.2 Nagano Event along the Northern Itoigawa-Shizuoka Tectonic Line Peer-reviewed

    Okada Shinsuke, Ishimura Daisuke, Niwa Yuichi, Toda Shinji

    SEISMOLOGICAL RESEARCH LETTERS　86　(5)　1287-1300　2015/09

    DOI： 10.1785/0220150052 　

    ISSN： 0895-0695

    eISSN： 1938-2057

  48. 地震断層分布の複雑性：最近の地震を例にして

    遠田晋次

    断層変位評価に関するシンポジウム講演論文集，土木学会　1　7-16　2015/07

  49. 第１章 「断層変位評価のための調査」

    遠田晋次, 平松良浩, 青柳恭平, 櫻庭浩一

    断層変位評価に関するシンポジウム講演論文集，土木学会　2　1-57　2015/07

  50. 座談会パート２：科学の不定性と東日本大震災

    本堂 毅, 松澤 暢, 宮内崇裕, 遠田晋次

    (11)　86-102　2015/03

  51. 座談会パート１：科学の不定性と東日本大震災

    遠田晋次, 松澤 暢, 宮内崇裕

    科学技術社会論研究　(11)　68-85　2015/03

  52. Feature of the surface rupture associated with the Mw 6.2 22 November 2014 Nagano-ken-hokubu earthquake along the Kamishiro fault, northern Itoigawa-Shizuoka Tectonic Line, central Japan

    Niwa Yuichi, Okada Shinsuke, Ishimura Daisuke, Toda Shinji

    Proceedings of the General Meeting of the Association of Japanese Geographers　2015　100072-100072　2015

    Publisher: The Association of Japanese Geographers

    DOI： 10.14866/ajg.2015s.0_100072 　

  53. The surface rupture of the 22 November 2014 Nagano-ken-hokubu earthquake (Mw 6.2), along the Kamishiro fault, Japan Peer-reviewed

    ISHIMURA Daisuke, OKADA Shinsuke, NIWA Yuichi, TODA Shinji

    Active Fault Research　2015　(43)　95-108　2015

    Publisher: 一般社団法人 日本活断層学会

    DOI： 10.11462/afr.2015.43_95 　

    ISSN： 0918-1024

    More details Close

    &lt;p&gt;The surface rupture associated with the 22 November 2014 Nagano-ken-hokubu earthquake of Mj = 6.7(Mw = 6.2) occurred on the previously mapped Kamishiro fault, the northernmost section of the ItoigawaShizuoka Tectonic Line active fault system (ISTL). This is the first surface-rupturing earthquake occurred on one of the ~110 major inland active faults intensively evaluated by the Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion. We mapped the locations of the surface breaks along the rupture zone immediately after the earthquake, using handy GPS equipment. We also measured vertical and horizontal displacements at these sites using a conventional tape, folding ruler, simple hand level, and handheld laser finder. As a result, we found a N-S trending 9.2-km-long surface rupture and ground deformations mostly along the pre-existing scarp of the Kamishiro fault. Most of the surface ruptures involved flexural and warped surface deformation associated with significant contraction near the fault tip and local extension on the bended hanging wall. Observed deformation suggests that dip of the reverse fault changes to low-angle at shallow depth and deform unconsolidated sediments in the basins. The rupture trace is not simple: there are several short subsidiary faults including three rupture traces involving back-thrust faulting in the northern part. These features and the mapped distribution indicate an east-dipping reverse fault (east side up), which is consistent with early aftershock distribution and a geodetically inferred source fault. However, the amount of displacement associated with the 2014 earthquake was much smaller than the ones expected from previously conducted geomorphological and paleo-seismological studies. To seek the reason why we overestimated the rupture dimension, we need more peleo-seismic data (event age and displacement) and perform further tectonic geomorphological analyses.&lt;/p&gt;

  54. Stress-based aftershock forecasts made within 24 h postmain shock: Expected north San Francisco Bay area seismicity changes after the 2014 M = 6.0 West Napa earthquake Peer-reviewed

    Tom Parsons, Margaret Segou, Volkan Sevilgen, Kevin Milner, Edward Field, Shinji Toda, Ross S. Stein

    Geophysical Research Letters　41　(24)　8792-8799　2014/12/28

    Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)

    DOI： 10.1002/2014gl062379 　

    ISSN： 0094-8276

  55. Depositional process of Holocene sediment based on analyses of sediment cores obtained from Rikuzentakata plain, Northeast Japan

    NIWA Yuichi, TODA Shinji, SUGAI Toshihiko, YAMAICHI Tsuyoshi

    Proceedings of the General Meeting of the Association of Japanese Geographers　2014　(0)　100136-100136　2014

    Publisher: The Association of Japanese Geographers

    DOI： 10.14866/ajg.2014s.0_100136 　

  56. 陸前高田平野完新統の堆積相・堆積速度，および推定される地殻変動傾向 Peer-reviewed

    丹羽雄一, 遠田晋次, 須貝俊彦, 松島義章

    第四紀研究　53　(6)　311-312　2014

  57. 断層活動年代推定における１問題点ー木片類と土壌有機物の14C年代値の系統的ギャップー Invited

    遠田晋次, 小俣雅志, 丸山 正, 早瀬亮介, 郡谷順英

    月刊地球　35　(9)　544-557　2013/09

  58. Megacity Megaquakes-Two Near Misses Peer-reviewed

    Ross S. Stein, Shinji Toda

    SCIENCE　341　(6148)　850-852　2013/08

    DOI： 10.1126/science.1238944 　

    ISSN： 0036-8075

  59. The 2011 M = 9.0 Tohoku oki earthquake more than doubled the probability of large shocks beneath Tokyo Peer-reviewed

    Shinji Toda, Ross S. Stein

    Geophysical Research Letters　40　(11)　2562-2566　2013/06/16

    DOI： 10.1002/grl.50524 　

    ISSN： 0094-8276 1944-8007

  60. Structural Analysis of Coseismic Normal Fault Zones of the 2011 M-w 6.6 Fukushima Earthquake, Northeast Japan Peer-reviewed

    Aiming Lin, Shinji Toda, Gang Rao, Satoru Tsuchihashi, Bing Yan

    BULLETIN OF THE SEISMOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA　103　(2B)　1603-1613　2013/05

    DOI： 10.1785/0120120111 　

    ISSN： 0037-1106

  61. Simultaneous Reactivation of Two, Subparallel, Inland Normal Faults during the M-w 6.6 11 April 2011 Iwaki Earthquake Triggered by the M-w 9.0 Tohoku-oki, Japan, Earthquake Peer-reviewed

    S. Toda, H. Tsutsumi

    BULLETIN OF THE SEISMOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA　103　(2B)　1584-1602　2013/05

    DOI： 10.1785/0120120281 　

    ISSN： 0037-1106

  62. 内陸地震の長期評価に関する課題と新たな視点 Invited Peer-reviewed

    遠田晋次

    地質学雑誌　119　(2)　105-123　2013/02

    Publisher: The Geological Society of Japan

    DOI： 10.5575/geosoc.2013.0001 　

    ISSN： 0016-7630

    More details Close

    Several large inland earthquakes in Japan since the 1995 Hygokennambu (Kobe) earthquake have struck the lower probability areas mapped by the Earthquake Research Committee (ERC) of the Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion in 2005. To seek the reason why it appears to have failed, here we re-examined the surface-rupturing earthquakes since 1923 when the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) officially started their catalog recording. Only 20% of M ≥ 6.5 and 44% of M ≥ 7.0 shallow earthquakes left the surface breaks that correspond to their source fault dimension. We thus speculate that the number of potential destructive earthquakes of M6-7 estimated from the major active faults would be significantly underestimated. Numerical calculations with active fault data and their assigned probabilities in the report also largely underestimate the number of observed earthquakes. Both independent analyses suggest that there would be far more minor active faults hidden beneath Japanese islands. From a viewpoint of elastic rebound in different scales, we discuss efficiency of stress release associated with inland earthquakes and maldistribution of active faults. Simple elastic half-space models qualitatively demonstrate that highly dipping reverse faulting earthquakes such as the 2004 Niigata-ken-Chuetsu earthquake associated with tectonic inversion are unfavorably oriented for the recent stress field and inefficient to release regional differential stress. The models also imply that numerous moderate-size earthquakes due to minor faults cannot compensate one large earthquake caused by a mature fault system. It explains that the inland deformation zone sustains high continuous seismicity, whereas the outer zone facing the Pacific Ocean is significantly influenced by the seismic cycles of subduction mega-thrust events. Regarding to the probabilistic estimates of large earthquakes, the former would be appropriate for more Poisson forecasting taking bulk deformation into account, and the latter would be evaluated from time-dependent conditional probabilities.

  63. Paleoseismic events of the Itozawa fault prior to the 2011 Fukushima-ken-hamadori earthquake revealed from a borehole survey at Shionohira, Iwaki City, Fukushima Prefecture, Japan

    Niwa Yuichi, Toda Shinji, Omata Masashi, Mori Yoshiki

    Active Fault Research　2013　(39)　1-7　2013

    Publisher: Japanese Society for Active Fault Studies

    DOI： 10.11462/afr.2013.39_1 　

    ISSN： 0918-1024

    More details Close

    We conducted a borehole survey across the western strand of the Itozawa fault at Shionohira, Iwaki City, Fukushima Prefecture where normal faulting surface rupture occurred at the April 11, 2011 Fukushima-ken hamadori earthquake (Iwaki earthquake, Mj7.0). Extracted core samples expose bedrock conglomerate, fluvial sand and gravel deposits, and artificial fill, from lower to upper, in ascending order. We found evidence for cumulative vertical displacement on the top of pre-2011 artificial fill, river channel gravel layer, and bedrock. Radiocarbon age was yielded from the organic-rich unit deposited on downthrown side. It suggests that one of the pre-2011 surface rupturing earthquakes occurred about 50,000 years ago. Small amount of vertical displacement at the pre-2011 earthquakes imply that coseismic slip and its deformation style at the paleo-earthquakes are different from those of the 2011 Iwaki earthquake.

  64. Have Recent Earthquakes Exposed Flaws in or Misunderstandings of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis? Peer-reviewed

    Thomas C. Hanks, Gregory C. Beroza, Shinji Toda

    SEISMOLOGICAL RESEARCH LETTERS　83　(5)　759-764　2012/09

    DOI： 10.1785/0220120043 　

    ISSN： 0895-0695

  65. Stress perturbations and seismic response associated with the 2011 M9.0 Tohoku-oki earthquake in and around the Tokai seismic gap, central Japan Peer-reviewed

    B. Enescu, S. Aoi, S. Toda, W. Suzuki, K. Obara, K. Shiomi, T. Takeda

    GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS　39　L00G28　2012/07

    DOI： 10.1029/2012GL051839 　

    ISSN： 0094-8276

  66. Aftershocks halted by static stress shadows Peer-reviewed

    Shinji Toda, Ross S. Stein, Gregory C. Beroza, David Marsan

    NATURE GEOSCIENCE　5　(6)　410-413　2012/06

    DOI： 10.1038/NGEO1465 　

    ISSN： 1752-0894

  67. Precursory seismic anomalies and transient crustal deformation prior to the 2008 Mw = 6.9 Iwate-Miyagi Nairiku, Japan, earthquake (vol 117, B05313, 2008) Peer-reviewed

    Takao Kumazawa, Yosihiko Ogata, Shinji Toda

    JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SOLID EARTH　117　B05313　2012/05

    DOI： 10.1029/2012JB009362 　

    ISSN： 2169-9313

    eISSN： 2169-9356

  68. 2011年4月11日に発生した福島県浜通りの地震の地震断層と活動履歴 Peer-reviewed

    堤 浩之, 遠田晋次

    地質学雑誌　118　559-570　2012

  69. 逆向き低崖のピット調査に基づく2008年岩手・宮城内陸地震で出現した地震断層北端部の活動史 Peer-reviewed

    丸山 正, 遠田晋次, 吉見雅行, 小俣雅志, 郡谷順英, 森 良樹

    活断層研究　36　(36)　11-22　2012

    Publisher: Japanese Society for Active Fault Studies

    DOI： 10.11462/afr.2012.36_11 　

    ISSN： 0918-1024

    More details Close

    We conducted pit excavation study across the northernmost section of the surface rupture associated with the Mw=6.9 14 June 2008 Iwate-Miyagi Nairiku earthquake to test our hypothesis that the surface break occurred along a pre-existing fault based on topographic observation. The 2.2-km-long northernmost trace of the surface rupture, characterized by a curvilinear trace with N-S-striking section with a west-side up thrust component to the south and NW-SE-striking section having a southwest-side up with significant sinistral slip components to the north, occurred in the westward or southwestward sloping mountain slope, forming the distinct uphillfacing scarps. We dug two pits across the scarp on the NW-SE-trending section where oblique slip with 0.9 m of southwest-side-up vertical and 1.7 m of sinistral offset occurred during the 2008 earthquake. Both pits exposed the steeply dipping rupture zone associated with the 2008 earthquake, which is typical of the strike-slip faulting fracture zone. On the basis of structural and stratigraphic features, including residual stratal deformation after restoration of the 2008 slip, thick accumulation of colluvial and fluvial deposits on upstream side and presence of buried palaeosol mantling over paleo-scarp, we identified two possible events predates 2008, both of which accompanied with uphill-facing scarps similar to the 2008 earthquake. Results of tephra analysis and radiocarbon dating of the strata show that the growth of uphill-facing scarp occurred in the age before 9.5-9.3 ka and another movement might have occurred possibly in the age ranging from 9.5-9.3 ka to 6 ka. Significant erosion in the steep mountain slope during the last glacial period together with long recurrence interval of the earthquakes might result in weak topographic relief on the fault trace in our study area.

  70. Widespread seismicity excitation throughout central Japan following the 2011 M=9.0 Tohoku earthquake and its interpretation by Coulomb stress transfer Peer-reviewed

    Shinji Toda, Ross S. Stein, Jian Lin

    GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS　38　L00G03　2011/08

    DOI： 10.1029/2011GL047834 　

    ISSN： 0094-8276

  71. 2011 M=6.1 Lyttleton earthquake as the maximum off-fault aftershock of the 2010 M=7.0 Darfield earthquake, Christchurch, New Zealand

    TODA Shinji

    The Quat. Res.　50　(3)　157-159　2011/06/01

    Publisher: Japan Association for Quaternary Research

    DOI： 10.4116/jaqua.50.157 　

    ISSN： 0418-2642

  72. Bayesian forecasting of recurrent earthquakes and predictive performance for a small sample size Peer-reviewed

    S. Nomura, Y. Ogata, F. Komaki, S. Toda

    JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SOLID EARTH　116　B04315　2011/04

    DOI： 10.1029/2010JB007917 　

    ISSN： 2169-9313

    eISSN： 2169-9356

  73. Stress transfer among en echelon and opposing thrusts and tear faults: Triggering caused by the 2003 M-w=6.9 Zemmouri, Algeria, earthquake Peer-reviewed

    Jian Lin, Ross S. Stein, Mustapha Meghraoui, Shinji Toda, Abdelhakim Ayadi, Catherine Dorbath, Samir Belabbes

    JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SOLID EARTH　116　B03305　2011/03

    DOI： 10.1029/2010JB007654 　

    ISSN： 2169-9313

    eISSN： 2169-9356

  74. Using the 2011 M-w 9.0 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake to test the Coulomb stress triggering hypothesis and to calculate faults brought closer to failure Peer-reviewed

    Shinji Toda, Jian Lin, Ross S. Stein

    EARTH PLANETS AND SPACE　63　(7)　725-730　2011

    DOI： 10.5047/eps.2011.05.010 　

    ISSN： 1343-8832

  75. Rate/state Coulomb stress transfer model for the CSEP Japan seismicity forecast Peer-reviewed

    Shinji Toda, Bogdan Enescu

    EARTH PLANETS AND SPACE　63　(3)　171-185　2011

    DOI： 10.5047/eps.2011.01.004 　

    ISSN： 1343-8832

  76. 2008年岩手・宮城内陸地震を引き起こした活断層の累積変位量－岩手県一関市厳美町岡山地区ボーリング調査－ Peer-reviewed

    遠田晋次, 丸山 正, 吉見雅行, 小俣雅志, 郡谷順英

    活断層研究　34　(34)　23-30　2011

    Publisher: Japanese Society for Active Fault Studies

    DOI： 10.11462/afr.2011.34_23 　

    ISSN： 0918-1024

    More details Close

    To reveal the geologic structure and repeating behavior of the source fault associated with the 2008 Mw=6.9 Iwate-Miyagi Nairiku earthquake, we excavated a 51-m-deep borehole on the up-thrown side of the surface rupture at Okayama, Genbi Town, Ichinoseki City. The borehole penetrated 2.5-m thick young sediment (surface soil, loam, and gravel), and a sequence of horizontal or sub-horizontal sandstone, siltstone, conglomerate, and tuff breccia of the Miocene Monji Formation. The borehole sample extracted from a depth of 17 m exposed the 30°-dipping distinctive fault contact juxtaposing hanging wall tuff breccia and footwall siltstone. Furthermore, we found the identical stratigraphic sequence at the shallower part (2.5-5.6 m) and at the deeper part (38.5-41.9 m) bounded by the fault, which suggests 36 m of vertical separation of the same strata. Together with the data showing other parallel-running fault strands and widely deformed late Pleistocene terraces, our estimates would suggest a minimum cumulative slip of the entire fault zone along eastern bounds of the Ou Backbone Range.

  77. 2008年岩手・宮城内陸地震に伴い岩手県奥州市国見山南麓に出現した地震断層北端部の性状 Peer-reviewed

    丸山 正, 遠田晋次, 吉見雅行, 安藤亮輔, 高田陽一郎, 斎藤英二, 林 舟, 小俣雅志

    活断層研究　34　(34)　1-12　2011

    Publisher: Japanese Society for Active Fault Studies

    DOI： 10.11462/afr.2011.34_1 　

    ISSN： 0918-1024

    More details Close

    Post-earthquake airborne LiDAR DEM and field investigation reveal the details of the northernmost trace of previously reported surface rupture zone associated with the 2008 Iwate-Miyagi Nairiku earthquake, which displaced the southern slopes of the densely forested Mt. Kunimi, Oshu City, Iwate Prefecture. The LiDAR DEM allows us to unveil the distribution and slip sense of the fresh ruptures that occurred on the mountainous area. Field observation and in-situ digital surveying show that the rupture is characterized by i) curvilinear traces composed of the N-S-trending east-facing scarp with no lateral offset to the south and the NW-SE-trending northeast-facing scarp with sinistral offset to the north, ii) the uphill-facing flexure scarps that move up the southwestward-sloping mountain block toward the upslope direction with ＜1.0 m vertical offsets, iii) shortening deformation manifested by intrusion of trees on downthrown side into the upthrown side, and iv) continuous trace extending over 2 km in length. These features suggest that the rupture is a west dipping reverse fault accommodating W-E to WNW-ESE trending compression, which is consistent with several proposed source fault models inferred from seismological and geodetical studies. The location of the surface rupture corresponds to the zone of abrupt change in displacement gradient illuminated by SAR analyses. Furthermore, the large slippage at the northernmost part of the 2008 rupture zone well corresponds to the location of one of large slip patches on the causative fault as derived from waveform inversion. Together with the detail topographic measurements and trench excavations, we identified evidence for the past faulting behavior suggestive of the same slip sense along the rupture zone. We thus conclude that this portion of the surface rupture is tectonic origin reflecting the westdipping seismogenic reverse faulting.

  78. 中部地方の活断層の相互作用と連動・連鎖性の評価－天正地震を例にして－ Peer-reviewed

    遠田晋次

    活断層研究　35　(35)　41-50　2011

    Publisher: Japanese Society for Active Fault Studies

    DOI： 10.11462/afr.2011.35_41 　

    ISSN： 0918-1024

    More details Close

    The 1586 M~8 Tensho earthquake might have been one of the largest inland earthquakes in Japan. Historical documents and geologic evidence suggest that there might be a composite rupture process involving more than a couple of active faults. To retrospectively evaluate such a possibility of distant cascading ruptures with stress transfer hypothesis, here I compute the static Coulomb stress changes under two representative scenarios. One is the Shogawa fault, Atera fault, and Yoro-Kuwana-Yokkaichi fault zone have been the sources(Sangawa's scenario), while the other is a movement of the norther Shogawa fault followed by the Yoro fault or Isewan fault (Matsu'ura's scenario). To assess the imminency and instability of their earthquakes in 1586, I also take the 30-yr earthquake probabilities of the causative faults into account. Computed stress transfer in five out of six combinations in the Sangawa's scenario suggests that Coulomb stress on the subsequent rupturing fault is loaded by the previous earthquake by up to 0.5 MPa. On the Matsu'ura's scenario, amount of stress transfer by the northern Shogawa fault to the Yoro or Isewan fault would be smaller than 0.01 MPa. But such small stress perturbation including possible effect of dynamic shaking might have been enough to trigger the Isewan fault which had been on the verge of the next rupture. Although there are still large uncertainties to assign fault parameters, my preliminary computations imply both scenarios can be supported by the recent consensus of static stress transfer hypothesis.

  79. Precursory seismic anomalies and transient crustal deformation prior to the 2008 M-w=6.9 Iwate-Miyagi Nairiku, Japan, earthquake Peer-reviewed

    Takao Kumazawa, Yosihiko Ogata, Shinji Toda

    JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SOLID EARTH　115　B10312　2010/10

    DOI： 10.1029/2010JB007567 　

    ISSN： 0148-0227

  80. Decay of aftershock density with distance does not indicate triggering by dynamic stress Peer-reviewed

    Keith Richards-Dinger, Ross S. Stein, Shinji Toda

    NATURE　467　(7315)　583-U105　2010/09

    DOI： 10.1038/nature09402 　

    ISSN： 0028-0836

    eISSN： 1476-4687

  81. Bridging great earthquake doublets through silent slip: On- and off-fault aftershocks of the 2006 Kuril Island subduction earthquake toggled by a slow slip on the outer rise normal fault of the 2007 great earthquake Peer-reviewed

    Yosihiko Ogata, Shinji Toda

    JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SOLID EARTH　115　B06318　2010/06

    DOI： 10.1029/2009JB006777 　

    ISSN： 0148-0227

  82. Source model of an earthquake doublet that occurred in a pull-apart basin along the Sumatran fault, Indonesia Peer-reviewed

    M. Nakano, H. Kumagai, S. Toda, R. Ando, T. Yamashina, H. Inoue, Sunarjo

    GEOPHYSICAL JOURNAL INTERNATIONAL　181　(1)　141-153　2010/04

    DOI： 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2010.04511.x 　

    ISSN： 0956-540X

  83. Surface Rupture Associated with the 2008 Iwate-Miyagi Nairiku, Japan, Earthquake and its Implications to the Rupture Process and Evaluation of Active Faults Peer-reviewed

    TODA Shinji, MARUYAMA Tadashi, YOSHIMI Masayuki, KANEDA Keitaro, AWATA Yasuo, YOSHIOKA Toshikazu, ANDO Ryosuke

    Zisin (Journal of the Seismological Society of Japan. 2nd ser.)　62　(4)　153-178　2010/03/15

    Publisher: SEISMOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF JAPAN

    DOI： 10.4294/zisin.62.153 　

    ISSN： 0037-1114

    More details Close

    The Mjma 7.2 (Mw 6.9) Iwate-Miyagi Nairiku earthquake struck mountainous regions east of volcanic front in northern Honshu. To understand the relation between coseismic surface deformation and the seismogenic faulting and to have lessons in the long-term earthquake forecasting, we have performed urgent field investigations immediately after the main shock, while fragile structure and surface geomorphic features were fresh. More than 13 fault-rupture observations suggest that the estimated total length of the tectonic ground breakages reaches &sim;20 km even though their locations are spotty rather than continuous along the entire trend. Contractional features such as thrust fault exposures, flexure, tilting, and buckling deformations predominate on the rupture zone, which is consistent with the reverse faulting under the WNW-ESE compressional stress field in northern Honshu. Such shortening features as well as vertical displacements were visible on cultural features such as concrete, asphalt paved roads, sidewalks, guardrails, drainage ditches, and rice paddies. Amounts of vertical offset and horizontal shortening measured using such cultural piercing points are mostly smaller than 50 cm (&sim;1 m of net slip). Fractures with such small slip, in turn, would not have been noticeable and may reflect the spotty distribution of the ruptures. Meanwhile, near the southern end of the rupture zone, fault structure and slip sense become complex and measured offsets are exceptionally large. We found a E-W-striking &sim;1-km-long continuous rupture involved with 4-to-8-m dextral and 2-to-4-m vertical offsets of a paved road, trails, and rills near a massive giant landslide at the northern rim of the Aratozawa dam reservoir. Terrestrial LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) measurements together with our field observations reveal typical features of strike-slip faulting such as mole tracks, fissures, pressure ridges, bulges, and shutter ridges as well as the offset rills and ridges. Detail mapping of the ruptures suggests that this strike-slip dominant fault is a lateral ramp or tear fault that connects two distinct NNE-trending thrust faults, although we cannot rule out the possibility of a large mass movement due to gravitational force to induce such large displacements without suffcient geodetic and geologic data. The mapped zone of the ruptures approximately locates along the central part of the surface projection of a &sim;40-km-long west-dipping source fault and associated aftershock zone. It also well corresponds to an asperity estimated from seismic and geodetic inversions, particularly southern end of the ground breakage zone. However, from the viewpoint of the long-term predictability, the surface fracturing occurred where none of active faults was previously mapped. Although several active geomorphic strands are likely to have reoccupied with the 2008 event, they are more spotty than the 2008 ruptures. Thus it would not have allowed us to properly evaluate size of the shock and entire extension of the rupture.

  84. 活断層研究と内陸地震の長期予測：阪神淡路大震災以降 Invited Peer-reviewed

    遠田晋次

    自然災害科学　28　311-324　2010

  85. 2008年 岩手・宮城内陸地震前の東北地方の地震活動について(共著)

    熊澤貴雄, 尾形良彦, 遠田晋次

    地震予知連絡会会報　82　96-105　2009/08

  86. The 1911 M similar to 6.6 Calaveras Earthquake: Source Parameters and the Role of Static, Viscoelastic, and Dynamic Coulomb Stress Changes Imparted by the 1906 San Francisco Earthquake Peer-reviewed

    Diane I. Doser, Kim B. Olsen, Fred F. Pollitz, Ross S. Stein, Shinji Toda

    BULLETIN OF THE SEISMOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA　99　(3)　1746-1759　2009/06

    DOI： 10.1785/0120080305 　

    ISSN： 0037-1106

  87. 2008年岩手・宮城内陸地震の地震断層と地質境界断層との関係—岩手県一関市厳美町産女川沿いの断層露頭— Peer-reviewed

    遠田晋次, 丸山 正, 吉見雅行, 小俣雅志, 郡谷順英, 山崎 誠

    活断層研究　30　(30)　47-53　2009

    Publisher: Japanese Society for Active Fault Studies

    DOI： 10.11462/afr.2009.30_47 　

    ISSN： 0918-1024

    More details Close

    We performed geologic reconnaissance to find the surface-rupturing fault associated with the 2008 Iwate-Miyagi Nairiku earthquake in the Neogene-Pleistocene bedrocks. A bank of the Ubusume River at Okayama, Genbi Town, Ichinoseki City exposes the Miocene Monji Formation which thrusts up on the younger Plio-Pleistocene Himematsu Formation with a fault contact. Several other reverse faults without any broad plastic deformation, suggesting brittle faulting after complete consolidation of the strata, are also exposed on the hanging wall of sandstone and mudstone in the Monji Formation. Amount of exposed thickness of the Himematsu Formation on the footwall implies that the cumulative vertical throw due to faulting would be more than ~10 m. From the viewpoints of the spatial relations with the 2008 breaks and freshness of the fault zone, we speculate that this formation-bounding fault is an "active fault" and might also have moved at the time of the 2008 earthquake.

  88. 2008年岩手・宮城内陸地震に伴う地震断層沿いの詳細地形—航空レーザ計測データをもとに— Peer-reviewed

    丸山 正, 遠田晋次, 吉見雅行, 小俣雅志

    活断層研究　30　1-12　2009

    DOI： 10.11462/afr.2009.30_1 　

  89. 火山体周辺に見られる隆起帯および火山性活断層の形成過程‐鹿児島県新島を例にして‐ Peer-reviewed

    吉永佑一, 原口 強, 遠田晋次, 横田修一郎

    活断層研究　31　(31)　11-18　2009

    Publisher: Japanese Society for Active Fault Studies

    DOI： 10.11462/afr.2009.31_11 　

    ISSN： 0918-1024

    More details Close

    Shinjima Island is a small island of ~0.2 square kilometer located northeast of the Sakurajima Volcano, Kagoshima Bay, southwest Japan. According to historical records, Shinjima Island was uplifted and emerged from bottom of the sea at the eruption of the Sakurajima Volcano in 1779. Shinijima Island is formed by horst-and-graben structures composed of numerous E-W striking normal faults due to the vocalnic activity.<br>On the both sides of the main graben, we found two major graben-bounding faults which vertically offset a key shell bed by 15.9 m, and 23.5 m respectively. In contrast to such narrow and distinctive surface deformation, a N-S trending seismic profile displays a structure that swells up the geologic units broadly at the depths of 200m and 320 m. The profile also suggests no distinctive fault offsets but warped strata are interpreted below the depth of 50 m.<br>To estimate volume and movement of the magma storage at the 1779 eruption and other historic and prehistoric events, we performed forward modeling to restore the surface deformation in an elastic half-space. A complex model combining a point source inflation and dike intrusions approximately reproduces the current Shinjima landform. The model suggests that the ridge-trough-ridge structure and associated active faults on Shinjima Island have been developed by such volcano-tectonic processes.

  90. A slab fragment wedged under Tokyo and its tectonic and seismic implications Peer-reviewed

    Shinji Toda, Ross S. Stein, Stephen H. Kirby, Serkan B. Bozkurt

    NATURE GEOSCIENCE　1　(11)　771-776　2008/11

    DOI： 10.1038/ngeo318 　

    ISSN： 1752-0894

  91. 12 May 2008 M=7.9 Wenchuan, China, earthquake calculated to increase failure stress and seismicity rate on three major fault systems Peer-reviewed

    Shinji Toda, Jian Lin, Mustapha Meghraoui, Ross S. Stein

    GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS　35　(17)　L17305　2008/09

    DOI： 10.1029/2008GL034903 　

    ISSN： 0094-8276

  92. 2006年千島列島沖地震の余震活動の時空間変化とストレス変化−アウターライズ地震の前駆すべりの可能性−(共著)

    尾形良彦, 遠田晋次

    地震予知連絡会会報　80　562-567　2008/08

  93. A leaping, triggered sequence along a segmented fault: The 1951 M-L 7.3 Hualien-Taitung earthquake sequence in eastern Taiwan Peer-reviewed

    Kate Huihsuan Chen, Shinji Toda, Ruey-Juin Rau

    JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SOLID EARTH　113　(B2)　B02304　2008/02

    DOI： 10.1029/2007JB005048 　

    ISSN： 2169-9313

    eISSN： 2169-9356

  94. Holocene paleoseismic history and possible segmentation on the Yamagata-bonchi fault zone, in northern Honshu, Japan

    Toda Shinji, Yoshioka Toshikazu, Omata Masashi, Koriya Yorihide, Iwasaki Takaaki

    Active Fault Research　2008　(29)　35-57　2008

    Publisher: Japanese Society for Active Fault Studies

    DOI： 10.11462/afr1985.2008.29_35 　

    ISSN： 0918-1024

    More details Close

    We excavated paleoseismic trenches across the Yamagata-bonchi fault zone that is a 60-km-long westdipping active reverse fault located in northeast Honshu, Japan. We then recovered the evidence for six to seven surface-rupturing earthquakes in the past ten thousand years from the highly deformed strata and faults exposed on the trench walls in the town of Oishida that located on the northern edge of the fault zone. The most recent paleoseismic event in the town is inferred to have occurred sometime between 1,500 and 2,800 cal. y. B. P. In contrast, trench walls in the town of Yamanobe across the southern part of the fault zone exposed evidence for only one surface-rupturing earthquake in the past ten thousand years. The event age is constrained to have occurred sometime between 4,200 and 5,000 y. B. P. Together with the major fault discontinuity at the center of the fault zone, we conclude that the Yamagata-bonchi fault zone is divided into two 30-km-long behavioral segments, both of which might have produced and will generate M-7.3 earthquakes. An average recurrence interval of 1,400-1,500 years and the long elapsed time since the most recent event on the northern segment allow us to calculate 3-14% of 30-yr conditional earthquake probabilities. Since time range of the event on the southern segment overlaps one of the events recovered from the northern segment, we cannot rule out the near future likelihood of the infrequent worst scenario of 60-km simultaneous multiple ruptures that might produce M-7.5 earthquake.

  95. 2008年岩手・宮城内陸地震に伴う地震断層最大右横ずれ量4-7mの荒砥沢ダム北方地震断層トレース

    吉見 雅行, 遠田 晋次, 丸山 正

    活断層研究　2008　(29)　i-ii　2008

    Publisher: 日本活断層学会

    DOI： 10.11462/afr1985.2008.29_i 　

    ISSN： 0918-1024

  96. Coulomb stresses imparted by the 25 March 2007 M(w)=6.6 Noto-Hanto, Japan, earthquake explain its &apos;butterfly&apos; distribution of aftershocks and suggest a heightened seismic hazard Peer-reviewed

    Shinji Toda

    EARTH PLANETS AND SPACE　60　(10)　1041-1046　2008

    DOI： 10.1186/BF03352866 　

    ISSN： 1343-8832

  97. Does the 2007 Noto Hanto earthquake reveal a weakness in the Japanese national seismic hazard map that could be remedied with geological data? Peer-reviewed

    Shinji Toda, Yasuo Awata

    EARTH PLANETS AND SPACE　60　(10)　1047-1052　2008

    DOI： 10.1186/BF03352867 　

    ISSN： 1343-8832

  98. Coastal deformation associated with the 2007 Noto Hanto earthquake, central Japan, estimated from uplifted and subsided intertidal organisms Peer-reviewed

    Yasuo Awata, Shinji Toda, Heitaro Kaneda, Takashi Azuma, Haruo Horikawa, Masanobu Shishikura, Tomoo Echigo

    EARTH PLANETS AND SPACE　60　(10)　1059-1062　2008

    DOI： 10.1186/BF03352869 　

    ISSN： 1343-8832

  99. 千島列島沖の地震活動の時空間パタンとストレス変化

    尾形良彦, 遠田晋次

    地震予知連絡会会報　78　60-66　2007/08

  100. Forecasting probabilistic seismic shaking for greater Tokyo from 400 years of intensity observations Peer-reviewed

    Serkan B. Bozkurt, Ross S. Stein, Shinji Toda

    EARTHQUAKE SPECTRA　23　(3)　525-546　2007/08

    DOI： 10.1193/1.2753504 　

    ISSN： 8755-2930

    eISSN： 1944-8201

  101. Stress interactions of thrust earthquakes in continental and oceanic lithosphere Peer-reviewed

    Jian Lin, Ross S. Stein, Shinji Toda

    JOURNAL OF CHINA UNIVERSITY OF GEOSCIENCES　18　(SI)　480-480　2007/06

    ISSN： 1002-0705

  102. Paleomagnetic Method Applied to a Suspected Deformed Sedimentary Layer Exposed at Oki Trench Site at the Agematsu Fault in Nagano Prefecture, Central Japan Peer-reviewed

    ITO Takashi, SAKAI Hideo, MORIMOTO Mayumi, SHISHIKURA Masanobu, TODA Shinji

    Journal of the Japan Society of Engineering Geology　48　(1)　27-34　2007/04/10

    Publisher: Japan Society of Engineering Geology

    DOI： 10.5110/jjseg.48.27 　

    ISSN： 0286-7737

    More details Close

    A paleomagnetic method was applied to decipher the origin of a dipping layer of the Agematsu fault at Oki trench sites (Si, S2). In S1 and S2 trenches, a sedimentary layer dipping up to 40 degrees was observed on the slope of bulge. It was discussed if the origin of dipping layer was due to tectonic deformation or to primary sedimentary structure. Oriented samples were collected from the same stratigraphic horizon. Alternating field (AF) demagnetization revealed that the remanent magnetization was divided into the stable primary component and the secondary component that could be cleaned by demagnetization at low AF levels. The primary component was estimated to be of DRM origin from low Qratio and high ARM/NRM ratio. The origin of dips of the sedimentary layer is considered to be primary sedimentary structure, because the scatter of the directions of remanent magnetization after the tilt correction is larger than that before the correction. There were large differences in the mean directions and the scatters of the secondary components between S1 and S2 trenches. In S2 trench, the secondary component showed less scatter than primary component and eastward deflection. The secondary component of S1 was regarded as VRM. There is a possibility that the origin of the secondary component in the S2 trench is due to lightning-induced remanent magnetization.

  103. 中国地方西部に認められるプレート内山口—出雲地震帯の成因と地震活動 Peer-reviewed

    金折裕司, 遠田晋次

    自然災害科学　25　(4)　507-523　2007

    Publisher:

    ISSN： 0286-6021

    More details Close

    An ENE-WSW-trending seismic zone, here named the Yamaguchi-Izumo Seismic Zone (YISZ), stretches 180km from Yamaguchi City, Yamaguchi Prefecture to Izumo City, Shimane Prefecture in the Western Chugoku District of Japan. Earthquakes in this seismic zone have focal depths of 5 to 25km. Approximately 70% of zone's length is found along active faults or lineaments, indicating that the zone is genetically related to the active structure. Based on the Japan Meteorological Agency Earthquake Catalog (from Jan. 14, 1923 to Dec. 31, 2005), three earthquakes with magnitudes greater than 6.0 (depth of 0 to 25 km) have occurred along the YISZ. The event generation rate is calculated to be 0.037 (3/82) events/year. On the other hand, from the Gutenberg-Richter relation of events that occurred during the eight years from Jan. 1 1998 to Dec. 31 2005, the generation rate is estimated to be 0.002 events/year, which is one order of magnitude smaller than the estimation from the Earthquake Catalog. This suggests that an earthquake in this zone is a characteristic earthquake, which is generated by the movement of a segment or a part of the active fault along the YISZ.

  104. Three-dimensional attenuation (Qs) structure beneath the Kanto district, Japan, as inferred from strong motion records Peer-reviewed

    Ryoichi Nakamura, Kenji Satake, Shinji Toda, Tomiichi Uetake, Shin'ichiro Kamiya

    GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS　33　(21)　2006/11

    DOI： 10.1029/2006GL027352 　

    ISSN： 0094-8276

    eISSN： 1944-8007

  105. A new probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for greater Tokyo - Discussion Peer-reviewed

    R. Blong, R. S. Stein, S. Sparks, H. Shah, J. Kennedy

    PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY A-MATHEMATICAL PHYSICAL AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES　364　(1845)　1987-1988　2006/08

    DOI： 10.1098/rsta.2006.1808 　

    ISSN： 1364-503X

  106. Spatio-temporal stress states estimated from seismicity rate changes in the Tokai region, central Japan Peer-reviewed

    S Toda, S Matsumura

    TECTONOPHYSICS　417　(1-2)　53-68　2006/04

    DOI： 10.1016/j.tecto.2005.08.030 　

    ISSN： 0040-1951

  107. Forecasting the evolution of seismicity in southern California: Animations built on earthquake stress transfer Peer-reviewed

    S Toda, RS Stein, K Richards-Dinger, SB Bozkurt

    JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SOLID EARTH　110　(B5)　B05S16　2005/05

    DOI： 10.1029/2004JB003415 　

    ISSN： 2169-9313

    eISSN： 2169-9356

  108. Perspective of active fault study from a viewpoint of fault interaction

    Toda Shinji

    Annual Meeting of the Geological Society of Japan　2005　35-35　2005

    Publisher: The Geological Society of Japan

    DOI： 10.14863/geosocabst.2005.0_35_1 　

  109. Research on Active Faulting to Mitigate Seismic Hazards: the State of the Art. Abstracts, Hokudan International Symposium on Active Faulting

    Hokudan Intrantioanal Symporium on Active Faulting　185　2005/01/01

  110. Mapping active fault associated with the 2003 Mw 6.6 Bam (SE Iran) earthquake with ASTER 3D images Peer-reviewed

    BH Fu, Y Ninomiya, XL Lei, S Toda, Y Awata

    REMOTE SENSING OF ENVIRONMENT　92　(2)　153-157　2004/08

    DOI： 10.1016/j.rse.05.019 　

    ISSN： 0034-4257

  111. Toggling of seismicity by the 1997 Kagoshima earthquake couplet: A demonstration of time-dependent stress transfer Peer-reviewed

    S Toda, R Stein

    JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SOLID EARTH　108　(B12)　2567　2003/12

    DOI： 10.1029/2003JB002527 　

    ISSN： 2169-9313

    eISSN： 2169-9356

  112. When and where the aftershock activity was depressed: Contrasting decay patterns of the proximate large earthquakes in southern California Peer-reviewed

    Y Ogata, LM Jones, S Toda

    JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SOLID EARTH　108　(B6)　2318　2003/06

    DOI： 10.1029/2002JB002009 　

    ISSN： 2169-9313

    eISSN： 2169-9356

  113. 丹那断層の過去3,000年間の活動履歴と単位変位量−田代地区における3Dトレンチ・Geoslicer調査− Peer-reviewed

    近藤久雄, 遠田晋次, 今泉俊文, 堤 浩之, 杉下一郎, 中田 高, 奥村晃史, 島崎邦彦, 高田圭太, 池田哲哉, 原口 強

    地震　55　407-424　2003

    DOI： 10.4294/zisin1948.55.4_407 　

  114. 中央構造線活断層系・畑野断層の最新活動時期と変位量 Peer-reviewed

    後藤秀昭, 堤 浩之, 遠田晋次

    地学雑誌　112　531-543　2003

  115. Three destructive inland earthquakes in the central-western Yamaguchi Prefecture, southwest Japan and accompanied stress changes to their adjacent faults Peer-reviewed

    Y Kanaori, S Toda, A Koizumi

    ENGINEERING GEOLOGY　66　(1-2)　143-156　2002/10

    DOI： 10.1016/S0013-7952(02)00038-8 　

    ISSN： 0013-7952

  116. Evidence from the AD 2000 Izu islands earthquake swarm that stressing rate governs seismicity Peer-reviewed

    S Toda, RS Stein, T Sagiya

    NATURE　419　(6902)　58-61　2002/09

    DOI： 10.1038/nature00997 　

    ISSN： 0028-0836

  117. Response of the San Andreas fault to the 1983 Coalinga-Nunez earthquakes: An application of interaction-based probabilities for Parkfield Peer-reviewed

    S Toda, RS Stein

    JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SOLID EARTH　107　(B6)　2126　2002/06

    DOI： 10.1029/2001JB000172 　

    ISSN： 2169-9313

    eISSN： 2169-9356

  118. サンアンドレアス断層系ヘイワード断層におけるジオスライサー調査 Peer-reviewed

    遠田 晋次, 中田

    2　269-277　2002/02/01

  119. サンアンドレアス断層系ヘイワード断層における地層抜き取り調査

    遠田 晋次, 高田 圭太, 奥村 晃史, 中田 高, 原口 強

    活断層研究　2002　(21)　i-ii　2002

    Publisher: 日本活断層学会

    DOI： 10.11462/afr1985.2002.21_i 　

    ISSN： 0918-1024

  120. Introduction to the Special Issue on Correlation and Triggering between Earthquakes and Volcanic Eruptions.""

    HASHIMOTO Manabu, TODA Shinji

    Journal of geography　111　(2)　149-153　2002

    Publisher: Tokyo Geographical Society

    DOI： 10.5026/jgeography.111.2_149 　

    ISSN： 0022-135X

  121. Aftershocks Triggered by Increased Shear Stress on Strike-slip Faults due to the 2000 Tottori-ken-seibu Earthquake

    TODA Shinji

    J. Geogr.　111　(2)　Plate1-Plate2　2002

    Publisher: Tokyo Geographical Society

    DOI： 10.5026/jgeography.111.2_Plate1 　

    ISSN： 0022-135X

  122. 木曽山脈西縁断層帯における活動履歴調査（1）－馬籠峠断層下り谷地区におけるトレンチ調査－

    宍倉正展, 遠田晋次, 永井節治, 二階堂学, 高瀬信一

    活断層・古地震研究報告　2　>41-55　2002

  123. 木曽山脈西縁断層帯における活動履歴調査（2）－馬籠峠断層福根沢地区における地形・地質調査－

    宍倉正展, 遠田晋次, 永井節治, 二階堂学, 高瀬信一

    活断層・古地震研究報告　2　>57-68　2002

  124. 応力速度変化を考慮した地震発生確率予測 Peer-reviewed

    遠田晋次

    地学雑誌　111　(2)　233-247　2002

    Publisher: Tokyo Geographical Society

    DOI： 10.5026/jgeography.111.2_233 　

    ISSN： 0022-135X

    More details Close

    Traditionally, long-term earthquake probability has been estimated using regional seismicity or a characteristic earthquake hypothesis without considering any recent stress perturbations caused by sudden crustal deformation or nearby earthquakes. The conventional calculation method ignores such processes observed time dependent clustering of earthquakes, and the occurrence of aftershocks or anti-shocks (seismicity rate decreases). I have thus introduced a method to seek the time-dependent seismicity rate based on stress interaction, incorporating the rate-and state-dependent friction law. Regarding earthquake productivity response to the stress state, coseismic stress step controls amplification of seismicity rate increase. In addition, assuming that the constitutive parameter and normal stress are constant throughout time, the aftershock or anti-shock duration is inversely proportional to the regional tectonic stressing rate. Thus, influence of the stress step lasts longer where the loading rate is slow, and the long-term probability retains the stress-related change longer. In addition, change in the loading rate proportionally causes the change in the earthquake productivity, in other words earthquake probability, with some delay estimated by a new loading rate. The response time to the sudden loading rate change depends on a new loading rate as predicted by the rate-and state-friction theory.<BR>To make further validations about this theory and method, I have investigated two cases of stress triggering, 2000 seismic swarm activity in and around the Izu Islands, and the October 6, 2000, M7.3 Tottori-ken-seibu earthquake. In the Izu swarm activity, the factor of the stressing rate changes was focused. Observed hundreds-to thousands-fold increases of seismicity rate than usual during the active two-month period are almost equivalent to the increases in the tectonic stressing rate caused by a dike intrusion. In contrast, long aftershock duration and long influence of the stress perturbation associated with a low stressing rate were tested in the Tottori case. Even though we need to incorporate additional factors such as viscoelastic behavior and change in earthquake size distribution, this method is expected to contribute more precise long-term earthquake probabilistic forecasting together with welldetermined data from recent GPS and seismic networks.

  125. 山口県中西部で発生した３被害地震と周辺断層付近の応力変化 Peer-reviewed

    金折裕司, 遠田晋次, 小泉 朗

    自然災害科学　20　(2)　213-224　2001

    Publisher:

    ISSN： 0286-6021

    More details Close

    Three destructive inland earthquakes of JMA magnitudes 5 to 6 have successively occurred in central-western Yamaguchi Prefecture during the recent fifteen years. Following the 1987 M=5.2 Central Yamaguchi Prefecture earthquake, the M=6.0 Suo-nada earthquake and the M=6.1 Northern Yamaguchi Prefecture earthquake in 1991 and 1997,respectively, were strong enough to cause moderate damage on houses. The epicenters of these three earthquakes were located along the active W. Yaumeyama-Lake Ohara fault system. In this paper, we calculated the stress changes in the Coulomb Failure Function (CFF) induced by the three successive earthquakes, in order to evaluate seismic risk in and around this fault system. This calculation indicated that by the occurrence of these three earthquakes the stress increased in an approximately 10- to 30-km wide area along the W. Yaumeyama-Lake Ohara fault system. The maximum stress increase was estimated to be 0.46 MPa at the Sakota-Ikumo fault. The stress also increased at the Eastern Mt. Mitsugatake fault. In contrast, the post-seismic stress decreased along the Tokusa-Jifuku, the Lake Ohara and the Shibuki faults. No stress change was produced on the Kikugawa fault. Because faults approach their points of stress failure with increases in stress, the seismic risk of the parts of the faults that constitute the W. Yaumeyama-Lake Ohara fault system may be elevatecl after these events. The stress increase may shorten the period until the occurrence of the next earthquake for their stress-increased fault and may also trigger seismic activity along them.

  126. Did stress triggering cause the large off-fault aftershocks of the 25 March 1998 M-w=8.1 Antarctic plate earthquake? Peer-reviewed

    S Toda, RS Stein

    GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS　27　(15)　2301-2304　2000/08

    DOI： 10.1029/1999GL011129 　

    ISSN： 0094-8276

  127. Case studies of electrical and electromagnetic methods applied to mapping active faults beneath the thick quaternary Peer-reviewed

    K Suzuki, S Toda, K Kusunoki, Y Fujimitsu, T Mogi, A Jomori

    ENGINEERING GEOLOGY　56　(1-2)　29-45　2000/04

    ISSN： 0013-7952

  128. Case studies of electrical and electromagnetic methods applied to mapping active faults beneath the thick Quaternary Peer-reviewed

    Koichi Suzuki, Shinji Toda, Kenichiro Kusunoki, Yasuhiro Fujimitsu, Tohru Mogi, Akira Jomori

    Engineering Geology　56　(1-2)　29-45　2000/04

    Publisher: Elsevier Science Publishers B.V.

    DOI： 10.1016/S0013-7952(99)00132-5 　

    ISSN： 0013-7952

  129. Heightened odds of large earthquakes near Istanbul: An interaction-based probability calculation Peer-reviewed

    T Parsons, S Toda, RS Stein, A Barka, JH Dieterich

    SCIENCE　288　(5466)　661-665　2000/04

    DOI： 10.1126/science.288.5466.661 　

    ISSN： 0036-8075

  130. O-365 Seismogenic fault of the 1997 magunitude-6.1 Northern Yamaguchi Prefecture earthquake and seismic risk assessment of its adjacent faults, southwest, Japan

    Kanaori Y., Toda S., Koizumi A.

    Annual Meeting of the Geological Society of Japan　2000　193-193　2000

    Publisher: The Geological Society of Japan

    DOI： 10.14863/geosocabst.2000.0_193_2 　

  131. Recent progress on Holocene surface faultings at the Itoigawa-Shizuoka Tectonic Line Active Fault System, Central Japan

    Inoue, D, Toda, S, Abe, S, Aoyagi, Y, Miyakoshi, K, Miura, D, Ueta, K, Hataya, R

    Chikyu Monthly, special issue　28　101-112　2000

  132. 糸魚川-静岡構造線活断層系南部の最近の断層活動 ―白州断層・下円井断層・市之瀬断層群トレンチ調査― Peer-reviewed

    遠田晋次, 三浦大助, 宮腰勝義, 井上大栄

    地震　52　445-468　2000

    DOI： 10.4294/zisin1948.52.4_445 　

  133. Recent surface-faulting events along the southern part of the Itoigawa-Shizuoka Tectonic Line, central Japan.

    Toda, S, Miura, D, Abe, S, Miyakoshi, K, Inoue, D

    Proceedings of the Paleoseismology Workshop, March 15, 1999, Tsukuba - as a part of Twin Institute Program between Geological Survey of Japan and United States Geological Survey -, GSJ Interim Report no. EQ/99/2, USGS Open-File Report 99-400, 92-96.　92-96　1999

  134. Stress transferred by the 1995 M-w = 6.9 Kobe, Japan, shock: Effect on aftershocks and future earthquake probabilities Peer-reviewed

    S Toda, RS Stein, PA Reasenberg, JH Dieterich, A Yoshida

    JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SOLID EARTH　103　(B10)　24543-24565　1998/10

    DOI： 10.1029/98JB00765 　

    ISSN： 2169-9313

    eISSN： 2169-9356

  135. The 1995 Kobe earthquake and problems of evaluation of active faults in Japan Peer-reviewed

    S Toda, R Hataya, S Abe, K Miyakoshi

    ENGINEERING GEOLOGY　43　(2-3)　151-167　1996/09

    DOI： 10.1016/0013-7952(96)00057-9 　

    ISSN： 0013-7952

  136. 517 Static Stress Changes and the interaction effects between the faults due to the earthquakes

    TODA Shinji

    Annual Meeting of the Geological Society of Japan　1996　366-366　1996

    Publisher: The Geological Society of Japan

    DOI： 10.14863/geosocabst.1996.0_366_1 　

  137. 460. Paleoseismicity of the Atera Fault System during the Holocene and Low Dimensional Chaotic Behavior

    TODA Shinji

    Annual Meeting of the Geological Society of Japan　1995　328-328　1995

    Publisher: The Geological Society of Japan

    DOI： 10.14863/geosocabst.1995.0_328_1 　

  138. 1995年兵庫県南部地震前後の地下水挙動 Peer-reviewed

    遠田晋次, 田中和広, 千木良雅弘, 宮川公雄, 長谷川琢磨

    地震　48　547-553　1995

    DOI： 10.4294/zisin1948.48.4_547 　

  139. 阿寺断層系の活動と1586年天正地震：小郷・青野原・伝田原地区トレンチ掘削調査 Peer-reviewed

    遠田晋次, 井上大栄, 高瀬信一, 久保内明彦, 二階堂 学

    地震　48　401-421　1995

    DOI： 10.4294/zisin1948.48.3_401 　

  140. 阿寺断層系の最新活動時期：1586年天正地震の可能性 Peer-reviewed

    遠田晋次, 井上大栄, 高瀬信一, 久保内明彦, 冨岡伸芳

    地震　47　73-77　1994

    DOI： 10.4294/zisin1948.47.1_73 　

  141. 山崎断層系大原断層のトレンチ調査 Peer-reviewed

    遠田晋次, 宮腰勝義, 井上大栄, 楠建一郎, 鈴木浩一

    地震　48　57-70　1994

    DOI： 10.4294/zisin1948.48.1_57 　

Show all ︎Show first 5

Misc. 59

  1. 活断層による内陸直下地震と地震災害リスク (特集 災害リスク・コミュニケーション)

    遠田 晋次

    消防防災の科学　(128)　11-17　2017

    Publisher: 消防防災科学センター

    ISSN： 2432-325X

  2. 2014年長野県北部の地震(Mw6.2)の地表地震断層を横切る反射法地震探査

    岡田真介, 松多信尚, 小鹿浩太, 川崎悠介, 松原由和, 遠田晋次

    日本地球惑星科学連合大会予稿集(Web)　2016　2016

  3. 2016年熊本地震の地表地震断層

    後藤秀昭, 熊原康博, 中田高, 石黒聡, 石村大輔, 石山達也, 岡田真介, 楮原京子, 柏原真太郎, 金田平太郎, 杉戸信彦, 鈴木康弘, 竹竝大士, 田中圭, 田中知季, 堤浩之, 遠田晋次, 廣内大助, 松多信尚, 森木ひかる, 吉田春香, 渡辺満久

    日本地球惑星科学連合大会予稿集(Web)　2016　ROMBUNNO.MIS34‐P44 (WEB ONLY)　2016

  4. The objectives of the symposium "At the moment and after March 11th 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake; Multi-disciplinary research of disaster science conducted by researchers in IRIDeS, Tohoku University"

    NIWA Yuichi, OKADA Shinsuke, TODA Shinji, IMAIZUMI Toshifumi

    Proceedings of the General Meeting of the Association of Japanese Geographers　2016　(0)　2016

    Publisher: The Association of Japanese Geographers

    More details Close

    1. はじめに &lt;br&gt;&amp;nbsp; 2011年3月11日に発生した東北地方太平洋沖地震( Mw = 9.0)によって，東北地方太平洋岸の広範囲で甚大な被害が発生した．本シンポジウムオーガナイザーらの所属する東北大学では，この大震災を契機に，2012年度より災害科学国際研究所(以下，災害研とする)が発足した．東北大災害研は，7研究部門(災害リスク研究部門，人間・社会対応研究部門，地域・都市再生研究部門，災害理学研究部門，災害医学研究部門，情報管理・社会連携研究部門，寄付研究部門)から構成され，兼務教員も含めて80人超のスタッフが在籍する。在籍するスタッフの研究分野は人文社会系から，理学系，工学系，さらには医学系など多様であり，分野横断型の研究を通じて災害科学に関する研究を進めている。 &lt;br&gt;&amp;nbsp; 東北大災害研は発足から4年半経過し(2016年10月現在)，これまでに積極的な研究活動を行ってきた．研究内容は，巨大地震および津波の発生メカニズムの解明，被害の状況や将来評価，震災の教訓のアーカイヴ化など多岐にわたる。また，宮城県や岩手県の自治体とは連携協定をむすび，防災・減災に関する情報や知識を提供するなど，地域連携にも注力している。 &lt;br&gt;&amp;nbsp; ところで，東北大災害研における，分野横断型の研究スタイルは都市地理学や経済地理学などの人文分野や気候学，地形学などの自然分野など多彩な分野から構成される地理学の研究と共通する。東北大災害研における研究活動を日本地理学会員に発信することは，第一に，津波被害，文理連携，医療支援活動，災害アーカイヴといった幅広い分野にわたる災害研究の取り組みや成果を全国規模の研究コミュニティにアピールするという点で意義がある．さらに，災害研の研究者が日本地理学会の研究者と議論することは，日本地理学会員にとっては災害研究において地理学が生かされる点を探るきっかけになり，災害研の研究者にとっては，災害の地理学的な捉え方について再考する絶好の機会になると期待される． そこで今回，災害研所属であり，東北大地理学教室に関わるスタッフを中心に本シンポジウムを企画した．本シンポジウムは第一部の講演および第二部のパネルディスカッションから構成される． &lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;2. シンポジウムの内容 &lt;br&gt;&amp;nbsp; 第一部では災害研所属の日本地理学会非会員の若手研究者が多種多様な研究活動を紹介する．1件目は，サッパシーアナワット准教授による，2004年インド洋津波と2011年東北津波の被害の比較に関する内容である．2件目は蝦名裕一准教授による，歴史学を軸として地震学・地質学などとも連携した分野横断型の災害研究の内容である．3件目は佐々木宏之助教による，3.11の教訓を生かした医療支援活動の内容である．4件目は，柴山明寛准教授による震災アーカイヴ活動(震災の記録・教訓をどのように伝え、残していくか)の内容である．&lt;br&gt;&amp;nbsp; 第二部のパネルディスカッションでは，まず，3名のコメンテーターが災害研の活動に対しコメントする．1人目の今泉俊文教授からは，理学研究科を本務とし，かつ災害研を兼務する日本地理学会員の立場から，災害研設立時の理学研究科の協力，災害研への地理分野の関与に関する補足説明・コメントを行う．2人目の須貝俊彦教授からは，所外の自然地理分野，および，文理融合を挙げて研究教育を行う東京大学大学院新領域創成科学研究科に所属する日本地理学会員の立場から，災害研の活動へコメントする．3人目の磯田弦准教授からは，所外の人文地理分野の立場および，東北大に所属する日本地理学会員の立場から，災害研の活動に対してコメントする．コメンテーターからのコメントだけでなく，会場からも質問やコメントを受け付け，災害研究に対し，多様な角度から議論をしていく．

  5. 有識者会合の評価書を科学的に検証する (フォーラム・アイ・ワイド エネルギーフォーラムシンポジウム いま原子力規制行政を問う! 敦賀発電所の「断層問題」を検証)

    奥村 晃史, 金折 裕司, 遠田 晋次

    エネルギーフォーラム　61　(729)　84-88　2015/09

    Publisher: エネルギーフォーラム

    ISSN： 0388-5267

  6. Coulomb stress change and its implication on the seismic hazard assessment along the strike-slip Ganzi-Yushu-Xianshuihe-Xiaojiang Fault Zone

    Bing Yan, Shinji Toda, Aiming Lin

    Workshop on Active faults and Paleoseimology, 29 Jan. 2019, Kyoto University, Japan　2015

  7. Coulomb stress triggering hypothesis as implication on the assessments of recurrence interval and seismic hazard of the strike-slip Xianshuihe-Xiaojiang Fault System

    Bing Yan, Shinji Toda, Aiming Lin

    北淡国際活断層シンポジウム2015, 2015年1月13-16日，兵庫県淡路島　2015

  8. 予測に基づく地震防災・減災は可能かー阪神・淡路大震災から19年，東日本大震災から３年ー

    遠田晋次

    学士会会報　(905)　44-48　2014/03

    Publisher: 学士会

  9. 連鎖する大地震：東北地方太平洋沖地震後の地震活動を予測する

    遠田晋次

    U SEVEN　53　43-47　2014/01

    Publisher: Gakushikai

  10. 首都直下のプレート構造と想定される地震像 (特集 過去に学び、未来に備える(1)首都直下の大地震を考える)

    遠田 晋次

    日本地震工学会誌　(20)　18-23　2013/10

    Publisher: 日本地震工学会

  11. 活断層による地震危険度

    遠田晋次

    青淵　(773)　22-24　2013/08

    Publisher: 公益財団法人 渋沢栄一記念財団

    ISSN： 0912-3210

  12. Long-term Earthquake Forecasting Associated with the 2011 off the Pacific Coast of Tohoku Earthquake

    TODA Shinji

    26　(1)　4-10　2012/03/15

    Publisher: 日本混相流学会

    ISSN： 0914-2843

  13. P48. Surface rupture associated with the April 11, 2011 M7.0 Fukushima Prefecture Hamadori earthquake

    Omata Masashi, Kohriya Yorihide, Toda Shinji, Tsutsumi Hiroyuki, Mori Yoshiki

    23　235-236　2011

    Publisher: 日本応用地質学会

  14. 2008年岩手・宮城内陸地震の地表断層変位と地上LiDARデータから抽出した樹木の傾きとの関係

    吉見雅行, 丸山正, 遠田晋次

    日本地震工学シンポジウム論文集(CD-ROM)　13th　ROMBUNNO.OS2-SAT-AM2(OS2)-6　2010/11/05

  15. 214 Similarity of Fracturing between an In-situ Direct Rock Shear Test and Seismogenic Faulting

    ISHIDA Tsuyoshi, TODA Shinji, KANAORI Yuji

    59　49-50　2010

    Publisher: 日本材料学会

  16. Paleoseismological trench investigation of the surface rupture associated with the 2008 Iwate-Miyagi Nairiku earthquake (Mj 7.2), NE Japan

    Annual report on active fault and paleoearthquake researches　(9)　19-54　2009

    Publisher: 産業技術総合研究所地質調査総合センター

    ISSN： 1883-9681

  17. Paleoseismological investigation of central part of the Matsumoto-bonchi-toen faults, northern part of the Itoigawa-Shizuoka Tectonic Line active fault system, central Honshu, Japan

    Annual report on active fault and paleoearthquake researches　(9)　261-277　2009

    Publisher: 産業技術総合研究所地質調査総合センター

    ISSN： 1883-9681

  18. Paleoseismological investigation of the Shonai-heiya-toen fault zone, Yamagata prefecture, northern Honshu, Japan

    Annual report on active fault and paleoearthquake researches　(8)　91-118　2008

    Publisher: 産業技術総合研究所地質調査総合センター

    ISSN： 1883-9681

  19. 3.5より詳しい地震活動履歴解明のための地質学および史料地震学的研究

    遠田晋次

    糸魚川-静岡構造線活断層帯における重点的な調査観測 平成19年度報告書　84-95　2008

    Publisher: 文部科学省研究開発局 国土交通省国土地理院 国立大学法人東京大学地震研究所

  20. 糸魚川‐静岡構造線活断層系神城断層南端,木崎地区における古地震調査

    奥村晃史, 近藤久雄, 遠田晋次, 高田圭太, 木下博久

    日本第四紀学会講演要旨集　37　208　2007/08/25

  21. 糸魚川‐静岡構造線活断層系中部の松本市街地周辺の航空レーザー計測と断層変位地形

    近藤久雄, 遠田晋次, 奥村晃史, 高田圭太, 千葉達朗

    日本第四紀学会講演要旨集　37　219　2007/08/25

  22. 糸魚川―静岡構造線活断層系北部,神代断層南端部木崎地区における古地震調査

    奥村晃史, 近藤久雄, 遠田晋次, 木下博久, 高田圭太

    地理科学　62　(3)　216　2007/07/28

    ISSN： 0286-4886

  23. 関東地域の三次元減衰構造・異常震域とそれに基づく1855年安政江戸地震の震源深さの推定

    中村亮一, 植竹富一, 佐竹健治, 遠田晋次, 宇佐美龍夫, 島崎邦彦, 渡辺健

    歴史地震　(22)　101-107　2007/04/26

    ISSN： 1349-9890

  24. P24. Growth Model of volcanic-tectonic dome and faults by magmatic sources movement : An example from Shinjima Island

    Yoshinaga Yuichi, Haraguchi Tsuyoshi, Toda Shinji, Yokota Shuichiro

    19　193-194　2007

    Publisher: 日本応用地質学会

  25. Geomorphic Features Indicating Strike-slip Movement along the East Matsumoto Basin Faults, Itoigawa-Shizuoka Tectonic Line Active Fault System, Central Japan

    KONDO Hisao, TODA Shinji, OKUMURA Koji, TAKADA Keita

    J. Geogr.　115　(2)　208-220　2006

    Publisher: Tokyo Geographical Society

    DOI： 10.5026/jgeography.115.2_208 　

    ISSN： 0022-135X 1884-0884

    More details Close

    The East Matsumoto Basin faults (EMBF) consist of the northern segment of the Itoigawa-Shizuoka Tectonic Line active fault system (ISTL), central Japan, and extend for ca. 30 km along the eastern margin of the Matsumoto Basin. The faults have been considered to be eastdipping reverse faults, which were re-activated sometime after the tectonic inversion event during the middle Miocene in central Japan. However, we found geomorphic evidence of strikeslip movement on the EMBF, such as systematic left-lateral offsets of abandoned channels and scissoring vertical offsets on the fan surface, which were probably formed during the Nara era. These offsets were measured as left-lateral displacements of 6 to 7 m with a slight vertical component, and were probably formed in association with the most recent faulting event of EMBF. In this case, the style and the amount of slip per event are comparable with those of the neighboring Gofukuji fault, which has one of the highest probabilities of seismic risk calculated among active faults on land in Japan. These refined geomorphic features indicate that the principal slip component on the southern portion of EMBF is not merely dip-slip but left-lateral slip, taking account of the cumulative vertical displacement inferred from uplifted hills since Miocene to Plio-Pleistocene at the eastern side of the fault traces. These facts and presumptions are consistent with the deformation pattern around the ISTL revealed by recent continuous GPS observations. In addition, these new findings allow us to understand that the subsidence in the Matsumoto urban district can be explained as a pull-apart basin related to a 1.5-km-wide left-step between the EMBF and Gofukuji faults. Su8rface geometry, style, and amount of faulting of both faults suggest that this left-step does not seem to be a significant enough segment boundary of the ISTL to arrest rupture propagation. Thus, the portion between the southern EMBF and Gofukuji fault is appropriately a single fault segment.

  26. 糸魚川‐静岡構造線断層帯・松本盆地東縁断層に沿う左横ずれ変位地形の予察的検討

    近藤久雄, 遠田晋次, 奥村晃史

    日本地震学会秋季大会講演予稿集　2005　276　2005/10/01

  27. 2004年9月28日, カリフォルニア州パークフィールド地震(M 6.0)の調査速報

    近藤 久雄, 遠田 晋次, RYMER Michael J.

    日本地震学会ニュースレター　16　(5)　34-37　2005/01/10

    ISSN： 0919-5319

  28. 関東の地震テクトニクス再考 : 新しいプレート構造の提案

    遠田晋次

    地球惑星科学関連学会2005年合同大会予稿集　2005

  29. A feasibility study on research techniques for subsurface active faults

    Kinoshita Hirohisa, Nohara Tsuyoshi, Nakata Takashi, Ikeda Yasutaka, Ito Kiyoshi, Otsuki Kenshiro, Sagiya Takeshi, Takada Keita, Toda Shinji

    Active Fault Research　2005　(25)　27-37　2005

    Publisher: Japanese Society for Active Fault Studies

    DOI： 10.11462/afr1985.2005.25_27 　

    ISSN： 0918-1024

    More details Close

    Results of numerical analyses and field studies in the epicenter area of the 2000 Tottoriken-seibu earthquake suggest that several research techniques are effective for identifying subsurface active faults unaccompanied with remarkable surface earthquake faults. Field observation of the lineaments found in the area by detailed air-photo interpretation revealed that most of them are accompanied by faults and/or dikes, and some of them show minor slips at the time of the earthquake.<BR>Crustal deformation caused by the activity of the subsurface seismogenic faults is deduced by numerical analyses based on seismic and geodetic data. The vertical deformation assumed from the height changes of the terraces along the river across the epicenter area suggests that cumulative uplift and subsidence associated with left-lateral strike-slip has been continuing. Offsets rate of the streams and uplift rate of the river terraces surfaces show good agreement with the estimate from the parameter of the earthquake faults model.<BR>Identification of active faults without clear surface evidence before occurrence of earthquakes is a difficult issue, and the techniques adopted in this study will probably provide relevant information effective to locate subsurface active faults.

  30. 2003年宮城県沖の地震前後の内陸地震の活動変化とその意味

    月刊地球　27　(1)　56-61　2005

  31. 一つの地震が他の地震を誘発する?-地震連鎖の仕組み

    遠田晋次

    地震と活断層-過去から学び, 将来を予測する-　2004

  32. S-19 Two types of the Kanto earthquake, the fault models and recurrence intervals of the 1703 Genroku-type and the 1923 Taisho-type

    Shishikura Masanobu, Toda Shinji, Satake Kenji

    Annual Meeting of the Geological Society of Japan　2004　(0)　11-11　2004

    Publisher: The Geological Society of Japan

    DOI： 10.14863/geosocabst.2004.abst.0_11_1 　

    ISSN： 1348-3935

  33. 2002年11月３日アラスカ，デナリ断層地震にみられる地震のトリガリング

    月刊地球　45　(号外)　40-45　2004

  34. 断層セグメントの多重破壊とスケーリング則 -巨視的アスペリティとしてのマスターセグメントの役割-

    月刊地球　46　(号外)　168-174　2004

  35. 内陸地震発生予測の学問的課題

    月刊地球　46　(号外)　108-111　2004

  36. 内陸地震発生予測の学問的課題 : 活断層の意義を中心として

    遠田 晋次, 松沢 暢, 石橋 克彦

    日本地震学会ニュースレター : News letter　14　(5)　20-22　2003/01/10

    ISSN： 0919-5319

  37. 木曽山脈西縁断層帯の活動履歴調査--上松断層大木地区におけるトレンチ調査

    宍倉 正展, 遠田 晋次, 永井 節治

    活断層・古地震研究報告　(3)　83-102　2003

    Publisher: 産業技術総合研究所地質調査総合センター

  38. Trenching study at Kudaritani site across the Magome-toge fault, the Kiso-sanmyaku-seien fault zone, central Japan

    Shishikura Masanobu, Toda Shinji, Kariya Yoshihiko, Nagai Setsuji

    Active Fault Research　2003　(23)　53-62　2003

    Publisher: Japanese Society for Active Fault Studies

    DOI： 10.11462/afr1985.2003.23_53 　

    ISSN： 0918-1024

    More details Close

    Kiso-sanmyaku-seien fault zone, extending for 60 km along the western front of the Kiso Range, consists of three echelon faults which trend in the N-S to NE-SW direction. We trenched the southernmost Magome-toge fault at Kudaritani site. In the trench walls, we recognized three distinct faulting events: one in the Holocene and two in the Late Pleistocene. Another older events are also inferred from a prismatic gravelly clay bed deposited in front of the fault plain. Our precise sequential 14C dating of the humic soils revealed that the latest faulting event occurred 5,000-3,800 cal yr BP. The penultimate event occurred after the fall of AT tephra (29,000 cal yr BP) and before 11,000 cal yr BP, and the third recent event predated the fall of the AT tephra. Mean faulting interval is therefore estimated to be around 12,000 to 25,000 years. The average vertical displacement per event is roughly estimated to be 1.2-1.6 m.

  39. 地形・地質調査から明らかになった木曽谷における13世紀頃の地震

    歴史地震　18,42-43　2003

  40. 中央構造線活断層系・畑野断層の最新活動時期とその変位量

    後藤秀昭, 堤浩之, 遠田晋次, 木村治夫, 杉戸信彦, 近藤久雄, 池田哲哉, 高田圭太, 島崎邦彦

    日本地理学会発表要旨集　(61)　118　2002/03/30

    ISSN： 1345-8329

  41. 大地震に伴う静的応力変化と地震活動

    遠田 晋次

    日本地震学会ニュースレター : News letter　13　(6)　7-10　2002/03/01

    ISSN： 0919-5319

  42. サンアンドレアス断層系ヘイワード断層におけるジオスライサー調査<調査速報>

    高田 圭太, 遠田 晋次, 中田 高, 奥村 晃史, 原口 強

    日本地震学会ニュースレター : News letter　13　(6)　3-6　2002/03/01

    ISSN： 0919-5319

  43. 1999年8月イズミット地震に伴う地震断層の掘削調査

    遠田晋次, 堤 浩之, 奥野 充, T. Duman, O. Emre, 原口 強, 近藤久雄, 杉戸信彦, 中村俊夫

    活断層研究　2002　(21)　口絵iii-iv　2002

    Publisher: 日本活断層学会

    DOI： 10.11462/afr1985.2002.21_iii 　

    ISSN： 0918-1024

  44. 2000年鳥取県西部地震の”地変”についての考察 ー境界要素法による表層誘発すべりの可能性の検討ー

    活断層研究　21　93-98　2002

  45. Introduction of graphic-rich dislocation software"Coulomb"

    Toda Shinji, Stein Ross S., King Geoffrey C. P.

    Active Fault Research　21　(21)　25-32　2002

    Publisher: Japanese Society for Active Fault Studies

    DOI： 10.11462/afr1985.2002.21_25 　

    ISSN： 0918-1024

    More details Close

    The software"Coulomb"is designed to let one calculate static displacements, strains, and stresses caused by fault slip, point sources of inflation/deflation, and dike expansion/contraction under an isotropic elastic half-space. The principal feature of the program is ease of input, rapid interactive modification, and intuitive visualization of the results. The program largely implements GUI (Graphical User Interface) environment such as menus, submenus, check-items, and dialogue boxes to ease operation. The internal graphics are suitable for publication, and these can be easily imported into illustration and visualization programs for higher-quality figures. We hope this program extensively supports researches for active faulting.

  46. 丹那断層の過去3000年間の活動履歴とnon-characteristic behavior

    近藤久雄, 遠田晋次, 杉下一郎, 堤浩之, 高田圭太, 今泉俊文, 中田高, 奥村晃史, 島崎邦彦, 池田哲哉, 原口強

    地理科学　56　(3)　207-207　2001/07/28

    Publisher: 地理科学学会

    ISSN： 0286-4886

  47. Recurrence of the Lake Efteni segment of the 1999 Nov. Duzce earthquake fault, Turkey

    SUGAI Toshihiko, AWATA Yasuo, TODA Shinji, EMRE Omer, HARAGUCHI Tsuyoshi, KINOSHITA Hirohisa, TAKADA Keita

    60　94-94　2001

  48. トルコ北アナトリア断層,1999年8月イズミット地震・11月デュズジェ地震に伴う地表地震断層の掘削調査

    粟田 泰夫, 古橋 大地, 須貝 俊彦, 奥村 晃史, 遠田 晋次, 原口 強, 木下 博久, 高田 圭太

    活断層研究　2001　(20)　iii-vi　2001

    Publisher: Japanese Society for Active Fault Studies

    DOI： 10.11462/afr1985.2001.20_iii 　

    ISSN： 0918-1024

  49. 1999年イズミット地震(トルコ)によるPull-apartの形成

    奥村 晃史, 粟田 泰夫, 遠田 晋次, 須貝 俊彦, 原口 強, Ozalp S., Dogan A., Emre O., Duman T. Y.

    地理科学　56　(3)　206-206　2001

    Publisher: 地理科学学会

    DOI： 10.20630/chirikagaku.56.3_206_2 　

    ISSN： 0286-4886

  50. Paleoseismic investigation of the 1999 Duzce earthquake fault at Lake Efteni, North Anatolian fault system, Turkey.

    須貝俊彦, 粟田泰夫, 遠田晋次, EMRE O, DOGAN A, OZALP S, 原口強, 高田圭太, 山口正秋

    活断層・古地震研究報告 第1号 平成13年　339-351　2001

  51. ジオスライサーによる北アナトリア断層系1999年11月地震断層の活動履調査-速報-

    活断層研究　20,104-111　2001

    DOI： 10.11462/afr1985.2001.20_104 　

  52. ジオスライサーによる北アナトリア断層系1999年11月地震断層の活動履調査?速報?

    活断層研究　20,104-111　2001

    DOI： 10.11462/afr1985.2001.20_104 　

  53. 3Dトレンチ・ジオスライサー調査により明らかにされた丹那断層の横ずれ単位変位量

    近藤久雄, 杉下一郎, 中田高, 奥村晃史, 今泉俊文, 遠田晋次, 島崎邦彦, 堤浩之, 高田圭太, 池田哲哉, 原口強

    地理科学　55　(3)　204-205　2000/07/28

    Publisher: 地理科学学会

    ISSN： 0286-4886

  54. 北淡国際活断層シンポジウムに参加して

    遠田 晋次

    日本地震学会ニュースレター　11　(6)　23-25　2000/03/01

    ISSN： 0919-5319

  55. トルコ北西部デュズジェ地震(1999年11月12日)に伴う地表地震断層

    原口 強, 須貝 俊彦, 粟田 泰夫, 遠田 晋次, 奥村 晃史, 古橋 大地

    活断層研究　2000　(19)　iii-iv　2000

    Publisher: Japanese Society for Active Fault Studies

    DOI： 10.11462/afr1985.2000.19_iii 　

    ISSN： 0918-1024

  56. 2000年伊豆諸島群発地震活動にみられる地震のトリガリング

    遠田晋次

    地震学会秋期大会講演予稿集　6　2000

  57. Paleoseismology at the southern part of the Itoigawa-Shizuoka Tectonic Line Active Fault System, Central Japan.

    Miura, D, Toda, S, Hataya, R, Miyakoshi, K, Inoue, D, Shirai, M

    EOS, supplement, AGU 2000 Spring Meeting, Washington D. C.　2000

  58. 1993年北海道南西沖地震での岩屑なだれ礫の液状化ケーススタディー

    國生 剛治, 田中 幸久, 河井 正, 工藤 康二, 鈴木 浩一, 遠田 晋次, 阿部 信太郎

    土と基礎　43　(10)　78-78　1995

    Publisher: 土質工学会

  59. 盛岡断層群花巻地区における反射法地震探査断面とその意義

    遠田晋次

    日本地質学会第101年学術大会講演要旨　299　1994

Show all ︎Show first 5

Books and Other Publications 3

  1. 活断層地震はどこまで予測できるか : 日本列島で今起きていること

    遠田, 晋次

    講談社　2016/12

    ISBN: 9784062579957

  2. 活断層が分かる本

    地盤工学会, 日本応用地質学会, 日本地震工学会, 國生, 剛治, 大塚, 康範, Hori, M. (Muneo)

    技報堂出版　2016/09

    ISBN: 9784765518390

  3. Contagious occurrence of large earthquakes

    Shinji Toda

    Iwanami-shoten　2013/02

Presentations 17

  1. 古地震調査におけるテフラの重要性

    東京大学地震研究所・研究集会「火山噴火履歴解明のための露頭データベース構築法の検討」　2014/02/08

  2. Regional stressing rate appears to control duration and decay of off-fault aftershocks in the 2011 M=9.0 Tohoku-oki, Japan, earthquake International-presentation

    Toda, S, R. S. Stein

    American Geophysical Union (AGU) 2013 fall meeting　2013/12/09

  3. Megacity megaquakes: Two near-misses, and the clues they leaves for earthquake interaction International-presentation

    Stein, R. S, S. Toda

    American Geophysical Union (AGU) 2013 fall meeting　2013/12/09

  4. Test of the Felzer and Brodsky (2006) argument for, and the Richards-Dinger et al (2010) argument against, remote dynamic triggering by small mainshocks International-presentation

    Peng, W, S. Toda

    American Geophysical Union (AGU) 2013 fall meeting　2013/12/09

  5. Evidence of cumulative offset along the inland Itozawa fault possibly triggered by the past M9 Tohoku, Japan, megathrust earthquakes revealed from a borehole survey International-presentation

    Niwa, Y, S. Toda, M. Omata, Y. Mori

    American Geophysical Union (AGU) 2013 fall meeting　2013/12/09

  6. Stress shadows of the 2011 Mw=9.0 Tohoku-oki, Japan, earthquake: Suppressed aftershocks of the 2008 Mw=6.6 Iwate-Miyagi inland earthquake International-presentation

    Suzuki Y, S. Toda

    American Geophysical Union (AGU) 2013 fall meeting　2013/12/09

  7. Subsurface fault geometry inferred from topographic relief and footwall geologic information: An example from the Ikoma fault zone, southwest Japan International-presentation

    Tani, E, S. Toda

    American Geophysical Union (AGU) 2013 fall meeting　2013/12/09

  8. Background seismicity controlled by heterogeneity in subsurface geology: An example from the Wakayama region, southwest Japan International-presentation

    Maeda, S, S. Toda, H. Katao

    American Geophysical Union (AGU) 2013 fall meeting　2013/12/09

  9. 内陸地震頻度の過少予測と過多予測：震源断層と活断層との関係

    日本活断層学会2013年度秋季大会　2013/11/29

  10. 活断層の定義と内陸地震震源としての諸問題

    日本地震学会2013年度秋季大会　2013/10/07

  11. 地質構造不均質に規制される地震活動の分布：紀伊半島北西部の例

    前田純伶, 遠田晋次, 片尾 浩

    日本地震学会2013年度秋季大会　2013/10/07

  12. 地形・地質構造から推定した生駒断層帯の地下形状

    谷 枝里子, 遠田晋次

    日本地震学会2013年度秋季大会　2013/10/07

  13. 2011年東北地方太平洋沖地震に伴う2008年岩手・宮城内陸地震余震域の静穏化

    鈴木悠平, 遠田晋次

    日本地震学会2013年度秋季大会　2013/10/07

  14. 求められる適切な「活断層」の認識と地震ハザード評価

    第50回自然災害科学総合シンポジウム　2013/09/11

  15. 地震活動の長期評価と地震動予測の現状認識ー活断層研究の観点からー

    京都大学防災研究所特定研究集会「より良い地震ハザード評価の出し方・使われ方」　2013/07/19

  16. 東北地方太平洋沖地震による首都直下地震ハザードへの影響

    遠田晋次, Ross S. Stein

    日本地球惑星科学連合2013年大会　2013/05/19

  17. 浅部地殻内地震と地質構造との関係 -紀伊半島北西部の三波川変成帯における定常地震活動-

    前田純伶, 遠田晋次

    日本地球惑星科学連合2013年大会　2013/05/19

Show all Show first 5

Research Projects 14

  1. 東北地方太平洋沿岸域の長期地殻変動と巨大地震との関係 Competitive

    2013/04 - Present

  2. 静的応力変化を考慮した余震・誘発地震の研究 Competitive

    2012/10 - Present

  3. 内陸地震ハザードとその評価法の研究 Competitive

    2012/10 - Present

  4. 火山近傍の活断層の発達と長期相互作用の解明―布田川断層と阿蘇火山における研究―

    遠田 晋次, 石村 大輔, 鳥井 真之, 奥野 充, 川口 允孝

    Offer Organization: 日本学術振興会

    System: 科学研究費助成事業

    Category: 基盤研究(B)

    Institution: 東北大学

    2022/04/01 - 2025/03/31

  5. Interdisciplinary research on historical earthquake and tsunami in Sanriku coast

    Fumihiko Imamura, SUGAWARA Daisuke, ISHIMURA Daisuke, NIWA Yuichi

    Offer Organization: Japan Society for the Promotion of Science

    System: Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research

    Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A)

    Institution: Tohoku University

    2014/04/01 - 2017/03/31

    More details Close

    This study performed geological and geomorphological field surveys and laboratory analyses at Sanriku coast of Japan. We revealed thousand-years-long paleotsunami histories at several places. Especially, we found possible evidence of AD869 Jogan tsunami event at central to northern Sanriku coast. This results should be important for estimating the source model since our results define northern extent of the sediments deposited by the Jogan tsunami. Geomorphological and geological research, studying the long term (103~105 year scale) crustal movement, further revealed that northern Sanriku area was slightly uplifted while the southern part was subsided. Numerical modeling for sediment transport is very useful to constrain tsunami source if distribution and thickness of tsunami deposits is used as modeling boundary condition. Sensitivity test of sediment deposition at different geomorphological settings will provide further constraints for tsunami source model.

  6. Establishment of a predictable method for interlocking of active-fault and trench-type great earthquake by considering a fault process zone

    Kanaori Yuji, IMAOKA Teruyoshi, OHTANI Tomoyuki, ISHIDA Tsuyoshi, TODA Shinji

    Offer Organization: Japan Society for the Promotion of Science

    System: Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research

    Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)

    Institution: Yamaguchi University

    2013/04/01 - 2016/03/31

    More details Close

    Three type earthquakes; active-fault, trench-type, and intra-slab earthquakes are clarified to occur successively, by analyzing pre-existing data of these earthquakes. Active- fault and intra-slab earthquakes also occurred after the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake. Analysis of earthquake motion around active faults before and after a trench-type earthquake are conducted for potential faults, which have a high risk of earthquake generation, by the pseudo-3D fault motion simulation of considering a fault process zone, and it successive movement of the active fault and the earthquake interlocking are confirmed.

  7. Spatial distributions of physical parameters in depth inferred from seismic activity data

    Iwata Takaki, OGATA Yosihiko, TODA Shinji

    Offer Organization: Japan Society for the Promotion of Science

    System: Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research

    Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)

    2013/04/01 - 2016/03/31

    More details Close

    This project aimed to develop a statistical method to estimate the spatial distribution of slip of a large earthquake and to evaluate the spatial heterogeneity of frictional parameter. A uniqueness of the developed method is to use seismic activity data, which would contain physical information such as stress state in depth but has not been analyzed thoroughly. It was applied to the real aftershock sequences of several large events, in particular ones at a plate boundary. As a result of the analysis, inferred slip distributions are consistent with those estimated in previous studies. It is also revealed that the dependency of the frictional parameter upon depth is statistically significant.

  8. Geomorphological and paleoseismological study of the inland normal faulting earthquakes in Iwaki area triggered by the 2011 Tohoku earthquake

    TSUTSUMI Hiroyuki, TODA Shinji

    Offer Organization: Japan Society for the Promotion of Science

    System: Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research

    Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)

    Institution: Kyoto University

    2012/04/01 - 2015/03/31

    More details Close

    Inland normal faulting earthquake swarm was triggered in Iwaki area, southeastern Fukushima Prefecture, by the 11 March 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake. The Fukushima-ken Hamadori earthquake (M 7.0) of 11 April 2011 was the largest earthquake with surface ruptures along the Yunodake and Itozawa faults. Trenching study revealed that the penultimate event on the Itozawa fault occurred sometime between 12,500 and 17,000 yBP. The recurrence interval of the surface faulting on the Itozawa fault is much longer than that of the huge mega-thrust earthquake off Tohoku region. In addition to the faults that ruptured in 2011, there are other possibly active normal faults such as the Futatsuya and Akai faults. Geomorphic mapping and trenching study suggest that the Futatsuya fault may be late-Quaternary active fault capable of producing an M7-class earthquake.

  9. Segmentation and fault interactction of intracontinental active faults: an example from the Tibetan Plateau

    LIN Aiming, TODA Shinji

    Offer Organization: Japan Society for the Promotion of Science

    System: Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research

    Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A)

    2011/04/01 - 2015/03/31

    More details Close

    This project focused on the segmentation and fault interaction as well rupture mechanisms of the active faults in the eastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau inclunding the Longmen Shan Thrust Belt active fault zone that triggered the 2008 Mw 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake and the Xianshuihe fault zone that triggered the Mw 6.9 Yushu earthquake. During the study of this project, we have published 28 high impact papers in the international journals. As related topics with this project, we have also studied the active faults and paleoearthquakes in Japan, including the Fujigawa-kakou fault zone as a plate boundary and the structural features of fault damage zones and fault rocks developed in the Arima-Takatsuki Tectonic Line and Itoigawa-Shizuoka Tectonic Line active fault systems.

  10. Strategic research of effective prediction to increase the probability gain statistical space-time model for diagnosing abnormal seismic activity

    OGATA Yosihiko, ZHUANG Jiancang, KATO Shogo, MATSU'URA Mitsuhiro, SUGAYA Katsunori, TODA Shinji, TSURUOKA Hirosi, IWATA Takaki

    Offer Organization: Japan Society for the Promotion of Science

    System: Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research

    Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A)

    Institution: The Institute of Statistical Mathematics

    2011/04/01 - 2014/03/31

    More details Close

    (1) We have completed beta version of the software of Bayesian models, such as hierarchical space-time ETAS models, which can be adapted to regional characteristics of seismic activity. Some programs have been provided for prediction experiment in California (UCERF3). (2) Research for real-time prediction of the probability of aftershocks within one day after the mainshock has been successful. (3) We have empirically demonstrated that predicting the probability of a major earthquake based on statistical discrimination of foreshocks. (4) We have developed a non-stationary BPT model for analyzing repeating earthquakes to visualize the space-time variation of stress changes on the plate boundary beneath the seafloor. (5) We have developed a non-stationary ETAS model to capture the pore fluid pressure changes on the faults from the earthquake swarm data.

  11. Establishment of the prediction method for active-fault linkage and seismic motion taking into consideration for a fault process zone

    KANAORI YUJI, IMAOKA Teruyoshi, OHTANI Tomoyuki, ISHIDA Tsuyoshi, TODA Shinji

    Offer Organization: Japan Society for the Promotion of Science

    System: Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research

    Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)

    Institution: Yamaguchi University

    2010/04/01 - 2014/03/31

    More details Close

    In Southwest Japan as a case study field, the followings are performed; (1) characterization of a fault process zone (e.g., s-wave velocity, width and microstructure), (2) extraction of a potential fault,, which moves easily under the modern stress field, by the process-zone characteristics, (3) development of evaluation methods for fault linkage and seismic motion by the modification of pseudo-3D fault-motion simulation taking into consideration for the fault process zone, (4) establishment of a seismic-motion prediction method for a fault zone (or system), and (5) maintenance and use of the preservation facility for the active fault.

  12. Construction of the foundations of statistical earthquake prediction research

    OGATA Yosihiko, TANEMURA Masaharu, TODA Shinji, ZHUANG Jiancang, TSURUOKA Hiroshi, TAMURA Yoshiyasu, SATO Seisho, KAWASAKI Yoshinori, SHIMAZAKI Kunihiko, MASE Shigeru, SHIBATA Ritei, ANDREA Llenos, SEBASTIAN Hainzl, JEFFREY J., DAVID Vere-Jones

    Offer Organization: Japan Society for the Promotion of Science

    System: Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research

    Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A)

    Institution: The Institute of Statistical Mathematics

    2008 - 2010

    More details Close

    発音に基づく入力を有効にするWe established a method of analysis that can detect and test the quiescence or activation, relative to the predicted seismic activity using the ETAS(epidemic type aftershock sequence) related models. We studied spatial patterns of deviations of seismicity from the forecast of seismic activity, and demonstrated the relationship between the crustal stress changes due to aseismic slip in the fault. Deviation of such seismic activity may be useful as a sensitive sensor of changes in crustal strain, and can be verified the consistency with the crustal deformation by GPS data and these phenomena. The results urged further operational studies to elucidate processes of earthquake precursor.

  13. Development for Statistical Earthquake forecasting. Seismic and geodetic anomalies preceding the rupture around the focal region detected by statistical models

    OGATA Yosihiko, TANEMURA Masaharu, TAMURA Yoshiyasu, HIGUCHI Tomoyuki, SATO Seisho, TODA Shinji

    Offer Organization: Japan Society for the Promotion of Science

    System: Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research

    Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A)

    Institution: The Institute of Statistical Mathematics

    2005 - 2007

    More details Close

    Seismic quiescence and activation, as the precursors to large earthquakes, have attracted much attention among seismologists. Of particular interest is the hypothesis that the stress-changes transferred from a rupture or silent slip in one region can cause seismic changes in other regions. However, the clustering feature of earthquakes prevents us from detecting the seismicity change due to stress change transferred from other region because successive earthquakes are triggered by complex mechanisms under heterogeneous fractal media. Nevertheless, we can use the statistical empirical laws as a practical method for predicting earthquake clusters. Thus, the objective of this research is to demonstrate that diagnostic analysis based on fitting the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model to regional seismicity can be helpful in detecting exogenous stress changes there. In particular, the changes due to silent slips are usually so slight that one can barely recognize systematic anomalies in seismicity without the aid of the ETAS model. The ordinary short-term occurrence rate of earthquakes in a region is well predicted using the ETAS model of triggering earthquakes. Any anomalous seismic activity, such as quiescence and activation, can be quantified by identifying significant deviation from the predicted rate. Thus we have successfully made a number of case studies. For example, such anomalies are revealed to have occurred during the three year period leading up to the 2004 Chuetsu Earthquake of Magnitude 6.8, central Japan. The quiescence and activation, which took place in the region of negative and positive increments of the Coulomb Failure Stress, respectively, were possibly caused by silent slip on the focal fault plane, or its deeper extension with a lower dip angle. Such slip is further supported by transient crustal movement around the rupture source. The time series records of many baseline distances between the permanent GPS stations significantly deviated from the predicted linear trends, mostly with the deviations consistent with the coseismic horizontal displacements of the GPS stations due to the Chuetsu Earthquake. Furthermore, a deeper extension of the mainshock fault plane, with a lower dip angle, can explain the more cases of the observed baseline deviations in comparison with the theoretical displacement. The cumulated precursory slip is estimated to be roughly equivalent to M6in the moment magnitude.

  14. Establishment of a zoning method for fault bedrocks based on the strain partitioning of multiple faults and seismic properties of fault rocks

    KANAORI Yuji, IMAOKA Teruki, FURUMOTO Munemitsu, TANAKA Kazuhiro, FUKUCHI Tatsuro, MIYATA Yuichiro, ISHIDA Tsuyoshi, SHINJI Masato, TODA Shinji

    Offer Organization: Japan Society for the Promotion of Science

    System: Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research

    Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)

    Institution: Yamaguchi University

    2004 - 2007

    More details Close

    NE-SW-trending, 105-km long Lake Ohara -W. Yauneyama fault system (OYFS) is developed in western Chugoku District. This fault system is composed of multiple faults. The Yamaguchi -Izumo seismic zone exists along the OYFS. The movement of active faults may be related to a formational mechanism of these basins, because the basins are located at bending parts of the faults. On the other hand, in this study, bedrocks which are affected by a fault movement and are in the vicinity of a fault are defined as "fault bedrock". In order to obtain a basic data for mitigating bedrock disaster caused by inland earthquakes, this study establishes a zoning method of seismic hazards for the fault bedrock. We select the OYFS as a case study, and the contents of the investigation and results are as follows. 1. Configuration of in plane view of the constituent fault of the OYFS is revealed, and strain partitioning of each constituent fault is analyzed by a combination microscopic observations of fault rocks and fault process zones. 2. Velocities, Vp and Vs, of the fault rock and the process zone are measured on rock samples in a laboratory and on outcrops in situ, respectively, and seismic properties of the fault bedrock are obtained. By combining the seismic property with the microscopic observation of the fault rock, a classification criterion of the fault bedrock is developed. Based on the classification criterion, a classification map of fault rocks is made up in the area along the OYFS. 3. Three-dimensional configuration of the multiple fault system is reconstructed by the combination of regional geology information, geophysical data and the result (1). 4. Using a two-dimensional finite element method, fault movement is simulated on the reconstructed model of the multiple fault system, and the seismic risk is evaluated.

Show all Show first 5

Social Activities 34

  1. 高レベル放射性廃棄物処分地の候補 東北の太平洋側に複数？

    2014/04/21 -

  2. 首都直下は「震度７」？

    2014/03/17 -

  3. 首都直下地震５年以内M7以上17%

    2014/03/13 -

  4. 断層調べて活動を予測

    2014/03/13 -

  5. 東北大学サイエンスカフェ，リベラルアーツサロン

    2014/02/21 -

    More details Close

    「地震を予測する〜余震から探る次の大地震〜」と題して仙台市メディアテイクにて講演

  6. 小笠原の火山新棟：大地震の前兆か 関東で３週連続M5

    2013/12/05 -

  7. 伊豆・小笠原地震で首都圏を巨大津波が襲う！

    2013/11/21 -

  8. きのうも５弱 これは首都直下の前兆だ

    2013/11/12 -

  9. 防衛問題セミナー：南海トラフ地震で空自司令，宮崎で講演「最悪の事態に備えて」

    2013/11/10 -

  10. 第24回防衛問題セミナー 防衛省九州防衛局主催

    2013/11/09 -

    More details Close

    「地震と津波から故郷を守るために」と題して宮崎市，宮崎市民プラザ・オルブライトホールにて講演

  11. 識者に聞く “井の中”の議論に危うさ

    2013/10/11 -

  12. 論拠評価書 随所に誤認

    2013/10/08 -

  13. 大地震でも”見えない”活断層

    2013/10/07 -

  14. “科学的判断”に疑問符

    2013/10/04 -

  15. 福井・大飯原発：「活断層」否定

    2013/09/03 -

  16. サマーセミナーin学士会館

    2013/08/25 -

    More details Close

    「連鎖する大地震：東北地方太平洋沖地震後の地震活動を予測する」と題して東京都学士会館で講演

  17. 震災対策技術展 宮城 セミナー

    2013/08/09 -

    More details Close

    「連鎖する地震活動：3.11後の地震活動を考える」と題して仙台市アエルで講演．

  18. 志賀S-1断層９月めどに最終報告書

    2013/06/24 -

  19. 首都圏の地震頻度大震災後高止まり

    2013/06/03 -

  20. 状況証拠重ね「活断層」規制委員有識者会合敦賀原発厳格に審査

    2013/05/30 -

  21. 福井・敦賀原発：２号機直下「活断層」認定 断層解釈は誤り

    2013/05/20 -

  22. 「筋通した」調査団（敦賀原発審査）

    2013/05/16 -

  23. 大地震発生の断層周辺 連鎖に警戒を

    2013/05/13 -

  24. M5級５年以内17% 首都直下地震 東北大試算

    2013/05/09 -

  25. 南海トラフも要警戒

    2013/04/16 -

  26. 未知なる活断層 首都を襲う

    2013/04/16 -

  27. 未知の活断層活動か＝広義の「阪神大震災余震」ー淡路島中部

    2013/04/15 -

  28. 震源は野島断層の南側か

    2013/04/15 -

  29. 阪神大震災の余震域南端で発生

    2013/04/15 -

  30. 兵庫・淡路の地震，「阪神と異なる逆断層型」

    2013/04/15 -

  31. 淡路地震：「南海トラフ」との関連指摘も

    2013/04/15 -

  32. 震源，「未知の活断層」原因か 淡路地震，研究者確認

    2013/04/14 -

  33. 18年前の記憶 再び 淡路島震度６弱「就寝中，ガガガ」

    2013/04/13 -

  34. 安定した場所は皆無，．．．関東フラグメントとは？

    2013/04 -

Show all Show first 5

Media Coverage 9

  1. NHKニュース 専門家「地震起きやすい地域」

    NHK

    2014/03/14

    Type: TV or radio program

  2. 震災３周年特集 TBSサンデーモーニング

    TBSテレビ

    2014/03/09

    Type: TV or radio program

  3. NHKニュースウオッチ９ 未知の活断層

    NHK

    2013/10/06

    Type: TV or radio program

  4. 東北大防災UPDATE：活断層とは何か？

    Date fm

    2013/08/18

    Type: Other

  5. 東北大防災UPDATE：連鎖する地震：東北地方太平洋沖地震の影響は終わっていない

    Date fm

    2013/08/04

    Type: Other

  6. 大地震”兆候”追跡 フジテレビMr.サンデー

    フジテレビ

    2013/04/21

    Type: TV or radio program

  7. 淡路島 震度６弱地震 フジテレビ特ダネ

    フジテレビ

    2013/04/15

    Type: TV or radio program

  8. 淡路島 震度６弱地震 フジテレビMr.サンデー

    フジテレビ

    2013/04/14

    Type: TV or radio program

  9. NHKメガクエイクIII 第一回，次の直下地震はどこか〜知られざる活断層の真実〜

    NHK

    2013/04/07

    Type: TV or radio program

Show all Show first 5